Sunday's Menu- Round 2 Appy and Round 3 Entree

2 play on the card for Sunday let’s keep this playoff success going!

Oh how quickly people change their minds on who is gonna win the title.  Everyone was on the Bulls a month ago and now tons of people are giving them almost no chance to win this series against an improving Miami team.  I don’t know who’ll win this series but it will come down to the wire.  When you read my pick keep in mind that I had Heat in Game 5 against the Celts so it’s not like I don’t believe they can get the job done.

Play 1:

Bulls -1.5 (-107) to win 10 units

Recent Form Angle- Heat:

When I play Game 1s in the playoffs for each I really stress recent performance.  Now Baker didn’t the Heat did beat the Celtics in 5 Games?  Why the hell are you fading them? 

Well let’s look at Games 3-5 in the Boston series after the Heat took a 2-0 series lead.  Game 5 I was bloody lucky to have won my Heat -7 bet.  They were down for 46 minutes and looked pretty awful against the Cs.  The Heat only won by 10 ending the game on a 16-0 run to make it look like an easy victory.  The Celts shot 46% and 49% from the field and 3-point line respectively and would have easily won if they hadn’t been so worn down and careless with the ball at the end of the game.  In Game 4 the Heat barely escaped with an overtime victory after being down 3 points in Boston in a game that the old Celtics would have wrapped up.  In Game 3 the Celtics pummelled the Heat by 16 completely dominating after the 1^st Half.

The Heat have not impressed me on the road this playoffs losing Games 4 and 3 to the Sixers and Celtics respectively in their previous rounds.  The two wins the Heat got on the road were games that they squeaked out against the Celts and Sixers and did not look impressive.

Recent Form Angle- Bulls:

The “BULLS SUCK THEY COULD BARELY DOMINATE THE PACERS FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!”  Well you know the Pacers looked pretty damn good and would have given any playoff team a run for their money in the 1^st round.  “HAHAHAHAHA THE BULLS LOST TWO THE HAWKS THEY HAVE NO CHANCE AGAINST THE HEAT.”  Well those Hawks were not the regular season creampuff Hawks seen in Games 1-4.  The Bulls had to play amazing to crush their spirit to make em look bad in Game 6.  LET ME SAY THIS THE HAWKS WOUL D HAVE EASILY TAKEN THE CELTICS TO 7 GAMES IN A SERIES THIS YEAR SO DON’T THINK THE HAWKS WERE A FAR EASIER OPPONENT THAN THE BULLS.

The Bulls defense suffocated the Hawks since the start of the 4^th quarter in Game 5.  They destroyed the Hawks on the road in a very impressive performance to close out their first ever series on the road.  Boozer is scoring, Rose is playing like an MVP, the Bulls are playing fantastic defense and I expect that to continue at home on Sunday.

Fatigue and Emotional Letdown Factor:

Lebron and the Heat wanted to beat the Celtics so so badly and I think no matter what they say it won’t be as easy to focus for the Bulls after beating a team they had wanted to beat so badly.  Even though the series ended in 5 games they were difficult and greuling games, as I saw the Heat slowly move the ball at home and look fairly fatigued.

 "Everything went through my mind at that point," James said. "Finally getting over this hump against this team. Everything I went through this summer, with 'The Decision' and deciding to come down here to be a part of this team ... because I knew how important team is to this sport ... and all the backlash I got from it.

"I'd be up here for two hours if I tell you exactly everything that went through my head. Very emotional at that point, you know, and happy we got through it as a team."

"It's huge for us to get this far," Rose said. "We're happy to get the conference finals, but we're not planning to stop right there."

What goes underrated about them is the depth of their team," said Atlanta's Al Horford, who had a miserable night and a tough series overall. "They just wear on you. They just kept coming, kept coming every game. It seemed like their starters were fresh."

The Bulls depth wore on the Hawks and I think it will be tough for the Heat starters to carry the load right off the bat against a Bulls team that is absolutely rolling on all cylinders right now.

Matchup Factor:

The Bulls were 3-0 winning 3 close games against the Heat during the season.  The Bulls matchup beautifully with the Heat.  The Heat struggle with elite point guards and Derrick Rose is as good as they come.  The Heat will eventually have to use Wade on Rose unless they want Bibby to get torched.  This will really wear down Wade and make him far less effective on the offensive end which is huge if anyone saw how Wade single-handedly kept the Heat in Game 5 in the first 3 quarters.   On the defensive end Rose can guard Bibby which won’t take much if any energy away from him.  The Bulls are deep and have the luxury of throwing Bogans, Brewer, Korver, and Deng on Wade and Lebron to really beat them up.  Deng is a threat on the offensive end as well so Lebron will have to really play his heart out.  The Bulls dominate the paint against the Heat.  Boozer, Noah, Gibson, Asik and Thomas will all beat up on Bosh who looked horrible against them in the season.  They will dominate the boards as well like they did in the season 36-30, 53-39, and 42-30 to keep control the tempo and setup their daunting defense against the potent transition offense of the Heat.

Vegas Factor:

"It's going to be a great matchup," Rose said. "We're fine with being considered the underdog."

The Bulls struggled  ATS in the 1st 2 rounds because they were a really inflated favourite.  It was tough for the Bulls playing with the pressure of being a favourite for the first time in careers going against scrappy teams that had nothing to lose.  However, this series suits the Bulls just fine.  They love playing as the “perceived underdog” especially at home.  They beat the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Grizzlies (YES THEY ARE IN THIS CATEGORY OF ELITE TEAMS), Heat, Spurs, Mavs, and Thunder among others.  They thrive as short favourites or dogs in big games at home this season and I expect that to continue tomorrow.  The value is all on the Bulls here as their is no way they should be favoured by 2 or less if the Celtics were -3 in Game 3 against the Heat at home last round.

Play 2:

Grizzlies 1^st Half +4 (-116) to win 5 units

All of the pressure will be on the young Thunder tomorrow as they are expected to beat the 8^th-seeded Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies are fearless and know they can compete with any team in the league.  They will be confident and will look to pick up where they left off from the 2^nd half of Game 6.  I think the Thunder will have a tough first half with all of the pressure and never having been in a Game 7 before as a team at home especially.  The Grizzlies are playing great D and all they have to do is dump it down low to get the party started.  The Grizz are forcing Westbrook out of the lane and making Durant a jump shooter.  The physicality from Young, Mayo, Battier and Allen have worn on Durant and if his shots aren’t going down perfectly the crowd will get anxious and so will the Thunder.  I like the Grizzlies to be up at half and then the Thunder to make a run in the 2^nd half.  I would take +6.5 but I’m not certain the Grizz can win and in a Game 7 6.5 points can go very quickly in the end with a ton of foul calls even if it was the right play (Celtics backers Game 5..ehem) so I don’t want any part of it.

The Grizzlies have won 5 of the 6 first quarters.  They have struggled in some 2^nd quarters but tomorrow I believe they will dictate the play in the 1^st half and not have a 2^nd quarter letdown due to some fatigue.  I also like to be getting an extra basket to work with for the half and unlike in the 1^st quarter play.

"This is where we want to be playing, Game 7, that one game to get to the Western Conference finals," Randolph said. "It's important. I feel good, but the job ain't done yet. We know it's going to be tough going to Oklahoma trying to win that game. We believe we can do it, and we're committed."

“We like people betting against us," Conley said. "It motivates us. We know a lot of people don't believe other than in the city of Memphis that we can get this done. We believe we can. That's all that matters."

GO VANCOUVER GRIZZLIESSSS!!!!! YOU’VE ALREADY MADE ME PROUD BUT A WIN TOMORROW WOULD JUST BE WOWWWW can’t even express in words how sweet that would be.

GL

NBA Playoffs-to-date: 21-11-3 (+61.78 units)

canadiantruth 

GO BULLS!

This choker has missed 31 of the 40 shots he's taken in Games 4, 5, and 6.  That's some smooth 23% bricking.  Mike Conley?  FAWKKK him!!!

Conley is like those kids that are being helped during the fight by other kids and after a fight brags how he beat the other guy

Great write-up Baker.  What do you think of the total at 181?

LeBron was quoted... 

"I can definitely see points in the game when it's not going to be fun for fans to watch if you love exciting basketball because it's going to be offensive struggles sometimes," James said Saturday as the Heat wrapped up preparations in Miami and traveled to Chicago for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday. "It's going to be two great defensive teams [that] take pride defensively, [teams that] get more out of getting stops than they do in scoring."

Best of luck to you with your picks

Conley's shots haven't been dropping but he's been taking it to the hole and if he manages the ball well and keeps Russell from driving the lane that's all I ask

Did you take Grizz game 6?

haha ya I try to make a big write-up when it's a 10 unit play and hopefully I persuade people the right way

Damn President in shackles not good.  Ya I really like the Bulls but I see the Grizz getting out to an early lead tomorrow carrying over their momentum from Game 6 and jumping on what might be a Thunder team feeling the pressure early

I want to take Memphis ATS but if they are down 3 with a minute left they will foul foul and foul so the 6.5 could disappear like magic in a Game 7- if you take Grizz +6.5 tomorrow be confident that the Grizz can win or at least have a lead late in the game

BOL buddy

Your half play may hit but I do like the Thunder a lot.

80% of game 7ens  the home team wins.

Your a great capper and I wish you the best my FRIEND