Playoffs 5-1 +10,700.00
It might surprise you then that despite all the over data I spouted the last game that I'm playing the under. As bettors we must adjust to the situation at hand and tonight is a situation where there is no second chance for the Spurs.
We all know that if the Spurs lose their season is done. Don't you dare think that the Thunder want to go back to SA to play a game 7 either. Oklahoma wants just as badly to close out this series tonight. This very important factors lead me to believe that tonight will see perhaps the slowest tempo we have seen all series long.
These are the two highest scoring teams and the two worst defences left in the playoffs at the same time yet, the line has held firm at 202-203 a number that has been eclipsed with 2 or more minutes to play in 3 of the 5 games. I think the books expect, as noted by the examples I will provide, that in a game where a team faces elimination you see a much better defensive effort. Not unlike the effort of a home team down 0-2 playing game 3 at home. I will demonstrate what my digging turned up a bit later ...
For me, the approach to handicapping this one is from a need to win(SA)/can’t afford to lose (OKC) perspective which means we should see both teams make the most of their possessions by not rushing and by playing aggressive defence.
It’s time to go back to the numbers tossed out in my other write ups about this series, especially the game 3 write-up. Let’s use 203 as our baseline given that this is the total I got for tonight.
Oklahoma
- 4 of the 5 games vs. the Lakers would have gone under 203
- All 4 games v Dallas would have gone under 203
- The under is 2-3 in this series so far using 203
Spurs
- all 4 games vs. Clippers would have gone under 203
- all 4 games vs. Jazz would have gone under 203
- 2-3 is the tally for this series so far.
Using 203 the under would have gone a combined 20-7 in both teams’ playoff games thus far. Also, consider that the Spurs have the ability to play tight defence. As I noted in my previous writeup, entering this series, they had not allowed more than 92 points in 7 of their prior 8 games.
This is a good under spot for the Spurs given that they are 5-0 “under” as dogs of 5-10.5 points and given that the under has gone a money-making 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing 100 points. Going back even further the under is 7-3 in their last 10 conference final games. Also, off a home playoff loss, the Spurs have gone 15-1-1 Under in their subsequent game.
If you are the Spurs and you want to halt a 3 game slide while facing elimination, your goal isn’t to try to outrun the opposition, it should be to keep them from scoring. You can’t allow a team to pop 100 points on you and expect to win most of the time. As for the Thunder the same applies; They can’t expect to be able to allow over 100 points and win the game most of the time. Expect the Thunder to revert back to the tactics used in game 3 that saw the game sail under by over 20 points.
Here's what Popovich said: “When I look at the film now, you can see us try to do some things on our own...Too many people doing it on their own — out of good intent — but it leads to contested shots, leads to turnovers, that kind of thing, where you see Oklahoma City passing the ball and playing like we did in the first two games.”
This gives me the inclination that they will slow it down and take more time on offence choosing instead to be more patient for the open shot instead of taking the first look that comes their way.
As for the Thunder they have under tendencies at home against top level competition. The under is 19-8 for OKC in their last 27 home games vs. opponents with a winning percentage of .600 or better.
This is their biggest franchise game EVER. At home sometimes players can be a little too excited and miss some shots they normally would make. I expect that their primary focus will be keeping the Spurs from scoring because as I noted, you can't allow 100 points and expect to win most of the time. I see game 3 all over again in terms of the Thunder's focus on defence.
Remember my theory for this bet lies in the fact that this is an elimination game. Here's what I noticed when I went back and looked at this season's elmination games. (keep in mind different teams, styles and all that... past trends do not equal future results ... BUT ....
- Spurs: game 4 vs. Utah saw a combined 168 points with a posted line of 199.5
- Spurs game 4 vs. Clippers went over 198 points with a combined 201 points
- OKC saw a combined 200 points and went over the total of 193.5 in their first round elimination game;
- OKC played to a combined 196 points in the Laker’s elimination game going over the 190 posted total
ALL 4 ELIMINATION GAMES played by these two teams this year would have played UNDER tonight’s posted total.
Let’s look at the rest of the playoffs:
- Indiana combined for 192 points in their elimination game with Orlando going over the 179.5 total;
- Indiana combined for 198 points in their elimination game with the Heat going over the 182 total
- Miami played 2 “elimination games” vs. New York. Game 4 saw a combined 176 points and stayed under the 183 total and game 5 combined for 200 points going over the 183 total.
- The Bulls played 2 elimination games vs. the Pacers. Games 5 and 6. Both went under low totals of 170 and 172 points.
- The Sixers played 2 elimination games vs. the Celtics (games 6 and 7) and saw the total go under in both of them (175.5 & 171).
- The Lakers played 3 elimination games vs. the Nuggets, games 5, 6 & 7. Combined scores of 201, 209 and in the deciding game 7 saw 183 points scored. The only under was game 7.
- The Clippers played 3 elimination games after going up 3-1 on the Grizzlies. All 3 went under low totals with the highest game combining for 178 points.
So, if my math is correct there have been 18 elimination game situations in this year’s playoffs.
Here's the part that intrigued me the most ..... Using tonight’s total of 203 points, 17 of those 18 games would have gone UNDER the total. (17-1 Under 203 points) Please correct me if I missed a team but I think you get the point I'm trying to make. When a team faces elimination, their gameplay tightens up. Defence takes priority.
So when all is said and done, we will see more focus to defence and ball control vs focus on offence. For all reasons given, this one has all the makings for an UNDER...
The floor is open for intelligent debate/discussion.
UNDER 203 -110 TO WIN 3 DIMES