Return Of The Mack

Finally.....finally......finally! The NBA has come BACK! And so has Mak.  Allow me to re-introduce myself, my name is Mak.  For those who know me, know how exited I am to be back for another season.  First and foremost, Makaclause would like to wish you all very Merry Christmas.  Best gift ever for me, is the association’s return on Christmas Day.  It’s good to be back with my Covers brothers.  My sincere apologies for my absence the whole 2nd half of last year, those who know me well know I was getting situated in my new home in Kenya.  Have officially moved from Canada to Africa due to business and couldn’t be happier.  Have been blessed with good fortune here and it is an absolute paradise.  Thanks to all for the well wishes last year, hope you all had a profitable campaign and hopefully we can duplicate that success this year.

For those who don’t know me, I have made a “brief” (no such thing as brief when it comes to mak) introduction in my season preview and projections, I really suggest you read it to get a better grasp of who I am and what I’m about.  Those who already know me, no need.  I have created a detailed preview of all NBA teams as well as my opinionated projections.  I have included the link below to my covers blog.  I really hope the previews help you better ascertain the wealins’ and dealins’ of the shortened off-season and the new makeup and progression of each team.  What I plan to do is keep this thread open for a week.  Each time I lock in a play, whatever two teams are involved, I will copy and paste the team preview with my game write-up.  I did not alphabetize the previews nor did I organize by conference or even division for that matter.  I know only a select few will actually take the time to read the long write-ups, but I do this for those who want to increase their knowledge of the game even slightly, plus it also helps me adapt to the new structure of each team.

Once again I do apologize for my absence last year and cannot put into words how ecstatic I am to be back to Covers for another year of ball, there were many points during the summer where I thought this wouldn’t be possible.  I was fairly certain there would be no NBA this year and kept myself mentally and emotionally ready for it.  I have decided to take a much needed break from business ventures for the next few months, thus allowing me the time to enjoy watching the game that I love.  Kenya has become more stable in terms of fibre optics so stability and speed of internet will no longer be a problem  for me.  I plan to be as consistent as I can, and look forward to sharing thoughts and analysis with you guys all season long.  It’s damn good to be back fellas.  Peace out - - - MAK

MAK'S 2012 NBA SEASON PREVIEWS & PROJECTIONS

RETURN OF THE MACK

IMPORTANT NOTE FOR DECEMBER 25th WRITEUPS

For those select few who actually care to take the time to read my write-ups, you will notice that the December 25th write-ups were done about 9-10 days ago.  Because of the very shortened off-season, a span of 9-10 days is an eternity in this unique circumstance.  As you will read, spreads are off point, injury updates are off point and there are some wholesale changes to my opinions and thoughts.  Instead of going through each write-up and changing them, I am just going to give a quick synopsis of changes.

First off, my only locked in play is way off the spread now, am actually very surprised at the drastic movement of the spread.  I got the Clipps at +2.5.  I thought I was being a gentleman by posting a pickem line, my initial thoughts in the write-up kind of make me look like an ass but oh well, if the shoe fits.   I still like the Clippers play, I see it available at some books at 4.5, my suggestion would be to buy the hook and play it for half the amount.

My Knicks lean is off the table, for weeks the line was stuck at PK.  With the Celtics now receiving almost 4 points, I don’t see any value at all in the Knicks.  Out of all the games, that would have been the one I would have least wanted to touch; now with the movement in the spread, there is no way I would even consider it a lean.

As you can see from the writeup, had no idea Kobe would be doubtful for this game with the torn ligament, the Bulls were my initial lean, when writing it they were actually 4 point dogs and a prime spot for a teaser.  Since I am trying to stay away from a lot of teasers this year, I decided to stay away from the game in its entirety.  Now with the updated news of Kobe, I think I actually may add the Bulls as a play.  If Kobe suits up, I would recommend staying away.  If he sits on Christmas day, the Bulls are an excellent pick to win the game.  Without Bynum or Bryant, the Lakers do not have the cohesive unit, depth or confidence to handle the very steady rotation of the Chicago Bulls.  Will wait closer to game time, but if Kobe sits, this may be as hefty a play as the Clippers, maybe slightly lower.

As for the Heat and Mavs, no real movement the past 9-10 days that would change my mind on that game.  Probably the game I am most looking forward to watching, but one game I will definitely not be playing, ditto for the Thunder at Magic, don’t understand the climb in spread for the Thunder, probably a lot of action for OKC, nevertheless, I still think they are prime candidates for a teaser, but as stated I will pick and choose my spots for teasers and wait until my bankroll is stacked enough to gamble on 2 teamers. 

That’s about it fellas, once again I do want to apologize for the drastic difference in the spread for the Clippers, I assure you this will not be a regular occurrence for me.  I know how aggravating it can be when covers posters state a line that is far from obtainable.  It is not something I will do on a regular basis.  Peace.    

SUNDAY DECEMBER 25th 2011

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

PLAY: CLIPPERS PK @ -110

I have to honest here, the day the Chris Paul trade was confirmed, I banged 7 units on the Clipps.  I managed to obtain a +2.5 line for the Clipps.  Now instead of starting off the year on a sour note with my covers brothers and posting a line that was not obtainable, I decided to post a PK line.  Whether or not you can obtain a PK line at no juice is not really a concern of mine at this point, right now as it stands it is at -1 and I think that is a steal.  What I am basically stating is that the Clipps are going to win this game, play the ML, play the – 1, I couldn’t care less, but my advice is to play the Clipps.  Win or lose, I will not regret this bet.  Let me explain why.  First off, what most need to understand about a home opener of this magnitude, is it means absolutely nothing for the Golden State Warriors.  That are no positive aspects to this specific home opener, I distinguish this with the sheer fact that this is the season opener for both teams, this is the real regular season debut of the Los Angeles Clippers.  This crew is hungry to make a serious statement.  Take the two Lakers pre-season games as an example.  Clippers starters played pretty heavy minutes in order to create cohesiveness in the line-ups.  Rotations were pretty much established unlike most teams who were tweaking and experimenting with line-ups.  The Clippers want to distinguish themselves as a contender as soon as possible, they want to accumulate an array of presence and having their first game away from the Staples Center is not going to stop them.  In fact, having their first game in Oracle Arena will actually prove to be advantageous to them.  The Golden State fans are no doubt one of the best in the league, rowdy, demonstrative and into the game for 48 minutes.  This will drive the Clippers, the aura alone will allow them to realize that this isn’t the only Arena that will portray such attention towards them.  All visiting arenas will be quite packed to see CP3 and Blake do their thing.  Showtime is back for the Clipps....well actually the Clipps were never showtime so I should restate that.  Showtime has finally arrived for the Clippers nation.  It is about damn time too.  David Stern has created another big market powerhouse and the Clipps will not disappoint this season or tonight.  CP3 and Billups will lead the back-court for the Clippers.  

Vinny Del Negro (who considers himself to be the luckiest man in the world at the moment) will exact his strategy for his back-court tonight.  He will instruct his two veteran guards to do everything they can to contain the potent back-court of Curry and Ellis.  That will be a focus on tonight’s game.  You may even see sporadic doubles on either Curry or Ellis leaving Wright open to force him to take a long shot.  If Dorell decides to light a fire tonight, the Clipps may find it difficult to win, if not they will have this one fairly early. In two preseason games Dorell shot 6-19 from the field and really struggled on the defensive end as well, if he is my biggest concern tonight, it makes this bet even better.  In terms of the battle of the bigs you have Andris Biedrins and David Lee vs Blake “Kia Jumper” Griffin and DeAndre “43 Million Dollar Man” Jordan.  Remember Zangief from Street Fighter from the USSR?  Well Biedrins is a native of USSR and is softer than a white pony.  He cannot and will not handle Jordan on the low block, anything that Andris tries offensively will be swatted away by one of the most tenacious young defenders in the game.  David Lee is a rebounding Machine and seems to step up his game against Blake, the problem is, he doesn’t even have 10% of the raw skill that Blake possesses.  It was Blake’s first reason, after a long summer of training and preparation, I expect Griffin to eat David Lee for dinner and ask for seconds.  The bench game is another win for the Clipps.  GS has a few weapons but I don’t think they will use them much.  I suspect Monta and Curry to play about 43 minutes apiece as usual, leaving newly acquired Brandon Rush in the dust as well as Ishmael “don’t call me Ishmael” Smith in the dust of Cali.  Other than that they have very scarce options in Ekpe Udoh, Domonic McGuire (who I like) and first round pick Tristan Thompson.  All very young forwards with not much experience and 2 of those have no experience in the fast paced style of the Warriors.  If Mark Jackson really wants to try and slow them down and concentrate on defense, even better for this bet.  No way can they contend in the half-court game, GS’s only chance is to speed the tempo and run the break at every opportunity.  On the flip-side I don’t really hate the role players on the Clipps bench.  Mo Williams and Randy Foye are guys who can really come into a game and create offensively for themselves.  They may not be the best at creating extra possessions, but they will be more than able to put the orange ball through the white mesh and keep the lead the starters had obtained for them.  I like Ryan Gomes a lot, a talented forward who can defend the 3 and the 4 spot at times.  He has defensive aptitude and has been in the NBA for quite some time, his basketball IQ has always impressed me and he is a good role player to have especially on a team like this.  Once Eric Bledsoe returns from injury it gives them a 9 man rotation they can use to conserve the energy for the playoffs, until then I think this 8 man rotation is one of the most solid, unique and balanced in the league.  I really think once the Clippers can show the betting public and the world for that matter, that they are that damn good, they will easily be 5-6 point favourites on the road against teams like the Warriors.  Until then we have to cash in, if it wasn’t the first game of the season I would be larger, but slow and steady wins the race.  CP3 and the Clipps outright winners in Cali tonight.  Woooooooo!

7 UNITS CHRIS “RIC FLAIR” PAUL - - -  

BOSTON CELTICS @ NEW YORK KNICKS

PLAY: NO PLAY (Lean Knicks PK -110)

MSG is going to be rocking tonight.  The NBA kicks off its 2012 campaign at the Mecca between two teams that will be battling for home-court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.  New York fans wanted one thing and one thing only, basketball that counts, prime time games and some serious playoff games...well they got it.  The Knicks will want to avenge their first-round playoff defeat at the hands of the Celtics and that is what will drive them tonight.  They finally have a front-court that can bang with the best of them.  For the first time in years, they actually have a better front-court than the Boston Celtics.  Tyson is too big and bad for any Celtics 5 men....actually....the Celts don’t really have any legit 5’s.  Jermaine cannot and will not contend with Tyson, O’neal is on the downside of his career, whereas Tyson is at the peak of his success, he is at a ripe NBA age and after receiving a contract of his stature, he will want to prove his worth beginning with winning the jump ball.  He does not want to disappoint one of the most scrutinizing cities and fans in the NBA. Mello and Amare will outshine Bass and Pierce tonight.  KG’s conditioning seemed slightly in question when watching him in a scrimmage last week, he is still KG, one of the baddest mothers around, he will be able to contribute tonight and all year long.  If Doc Rivers has any chance of reviving his championship Celts, he will have to rely heavily on Garnett in most games including this one.  The backcourt of Rondo and Ray Ray will cause some problems for Tony and Landry.  Youth versus veteran expertise, I see the backcourt struggling for New York.  The lack of depth for both teams is a concern, but the fact that New York is out to prove their worth this season combined with revenge motivation is the key to my lean here.  So why no play?  The thing is, with power...comes great responsibility.  All these prime time network games, will they really be the best thing for the Knicks?  Won’t there be a tad too much pressure on this team to dominate every single night?  This game especially, they are facing a Celtics team that is being doubted right out of the gate, they are facing a Celts team that absolutely loves playing at MSG.  Both teams will be pressing really hard to win the first game of the season, what will it be, veteran swagger and pride or youthful exuberance and a necessity to prove worth?  I chose none of the above and reluctantly pass on the first game of the NBA season.

CHICAGO BULLS @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS

PLAY: NO PLAY (Lean Bulls + 4 -110)

The key to this game is the absence of Andrew Bynum.  His suspension for pulling a Stone Cold Steve Austin close line on J.J Barea may cost the Lakers more than they bargained for.  Now more than ever it is imperative that the Lakers start off strong and win a few games to build confidence.  But without Andrew Bynum, I see them struggling to start the season.  This will be especially evident against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Chicago Bulls are talent heavy, their roster is deep with productive players.  They definitely have a deeper roster than the Los Angeles Lakers.  Their size will cause a major problem for the Lakers front-line tonight.  Without Andrew Bynum, I suspect Pau Gasol to play centre and check Joakim Noah while Josh McRoberts will most likely start at the 4 and guard Carlos Boozer.  McRoberts is a very underrated defender, but Carlos Boozer’s sheer girth and strength should easily outmatch Josh on the low block.  At small forward Metta World Peace (man oh man I don’t know how I am going to be able to call Ron Artest by this name all season, just ridiculous) should match up with Deng nicely and both should battle it out this afternoon.  Kobe and Hamilton are the key matchup to watch tonight, Hamilton is a capable defender and very good at staying in front of Kobe during his career.  Most likely you will see World Peace matchup with Hamilton since the Lakers will not want Kobe to exert too much energy running around after the energizer bunny that is Richard Hamilton.  I have always thought of Fish as a very capable defender at his position, but he has no chance at guarding Derrick Rose tonight.  The bench play is no contest in my opinion, Chicago has the bigger, better, faster, stronger and deeper bench and should be able to out-produce the Lakers role players.  The only reason this is not a play is due to the fact that Kobe and company will want to make a statement, Kobe’s marital concerns should not be an issue, is is a stoic individual with a strong mentality that will be able to focus on the task at hand.  Pau Gasol will want to prove his worth after the CP3 trade debacle.  The only problem is who else is there on Los Angeles that can contend with the sheer depth and talent of the Bulls?  The Lakers are getting a bit too much respect with this line, I just chose to wait it out and gain a better perspective of the Los Angeles Lakers before I start fading them with gusto. 

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ ORLANDO MAGIC

PLAY: NO PLAY (Lean Thunder – 6.5)

The Thunder at home are a dangerous team, especially in front of a sold out crowd anxiously awaiting the home-opener.  The Orlando Magic just do not have the depth to handle the youth and exuberance of this squad, not to mention the added confidence of a successful post season and the anxiousness of a young superstar to duplicate his scoring title.  Kevin Durant is the best pure scorer in the game of basketball, in my opinion he will no doubt duplicate his success from last year.  Who exactly is going to guard KD?  Hedo?  I don’t think so.  The Magic lack any sort of real perimeter defenders.  They will not be able to hold off the barrage that is The Tarantula.  Despite KD being the main focus of tonight’s game, I think the key to this game is the matchup between Kendrick Perkins and Dwight Howard.  Perk has always been a guy who has been able to guard Dwight with relative ease, not many 5 men in the league could say that.  Perk has lost a significant amount of weight and I am not sure if he can still handle the load of Superman, but his conditioning and quickness has improved which should prove to be advantageous when guarding someone of Dwight’s stature.  If he can stay out of foul trouble and play heavy minutes tonight, Perk should prove to be a vital part of the Thunder cover.  Serge Ibaka is another key to this game, his presence should negate the ability of Nelson and J-Rich to enter the lane for easy hoops at the bucket.  James Harden has finally come into his own and proved his worth as a number 3 overall pick, his confidence is 10 fold after last year’s playoff run and he will have a big game tonight.  If J.J Reddick and Ryan Anderson can provide some sort of offensive productivity off the bench, the Magic can stay close tonight, if not I see the Thunder using the enthusiasm of the crown and covering this game easily with a double digit victory.

MIAMI HEAT @ DALLAS MAVERICKS

PLAY: NO PLAY (Lean None)

By far the game I am most interested in watching on today’s opening slate but one I wouldn’t touch with a 20 foot pole.  I don’t have any real feel on this game.  The Heat will most definitely want to exact revenge on the team that took away a chance at a fairy tale ending for them.  Despite not making any wholesale changes, the Heat are a very different ball club this year (please read my Miami season preview to find out why I believe this), they will come out with gusto and a sense of determination this afternoon.  Dallas on the other hand, needs to realize they are the Champions and thus, have to play with an entirely different swagger than they did last year.  This team is oozing with pride after their victory over the Heat and won’t give up this game without a fight.  The acquisition of Lamar Odom will prove to be a difference maker against the Heat, he can guard LeBron James and Chris Bosh, who on the Mavs championship team last year could actually say that, not Shawn Marion, nor Dirk.  Lamar will be a difference maker tonight and he will want to prove to his new squad he is the key to a title defense.  This is a very important game for both teams, the problem I have is that the Dallas Mavericks have to incorporate a lot of new players into the system whereas the Heat have practically the same core with some minor tweaks.  That will prove beneficial to the Heat, my gut tells me the Miami Heat will want this game a bit more, but my heart and mind tell me never to underestimate the heart of a champion.  Gonna sit back, relax and enjoy the show.    

its @ -5 already bro

Mak u got the old lines

The Don

the clippers line hasn't been lower than 5 in a week and is moving to 6...none of the other lines are close to what they have been in a week or two either.

Those are obtainable lines????

Mak welcome back. Thank you for all the work you put in for sharing your analysis.

I understand bro, please read the note in the 2nd post.  Apologies for the inconvenience.  Good luck.

Welcome back Mak! Hoping to see you rip the books apart!

Good to see you again SiuLungBao,  I know I got the old lines, please read the 2nd post. 

The CMo

welcome back mak! looking forward to another good year this year in the NBA

Actually buddy on December 16th when I made my plays and writeups, 5dimes had the following lines listed: Clippers - 1, Knicks PK, Bulls +3.5 & OKC - 6.5

Before you make acquisitions on my thread please check your facts. Instead of appreciate for the season previews and writeups I get unappreciative bastards like you with posts like this, ahh it's good to be back amongst the covers nation, I sure missed guys like you while I was gone.

Apologies for the inconvenience in terms of the lines, I assure you it will not be a regular occurrence on my threads.  Peace. 

No they are surely not obtainable lines, I understand it is boring to sometimes actually read what people have posted, but would really appreciate if you would actually take the time in the future to at least glance at what I have written rather than just look at the picks.

P.S Love the avatar, Eastbown and Down was an awesome show.

Reach, posters like you are the reason I put in the time and will continue to do so all season long, I appreciate the appreciation bro.  Thank you.

Appreciate it sweetwater, good luck this season bud.