Random thoughts on Round 2 (Conf Semis)

If you read my threads you know I believe the League is influenced, not "fixed" but influenced, there's a big difference.

35 is the magic number, it was a revenue nightmare for the NBA last season and won't be repeated. Last 2017 playoffs there were only a total of 35 games in Rd 2, Conf Finals and Finals combined as Warriors and Cavs (+1) swept their way to the Finals. In a an 8 year average when viewers get to see 41 games they were treated to 7 less at 35. Think about that 7 game absence revenue lost for the League, won't happen again. We had a paltry 21 in 2nd Rd that avg's 22, we had an abysmal 9 in Con Finals that avg 12 (!!) and a weak 5 in Finals that avg 6.

If my theory is correct, we will simply see more games. The 1st Round is a good indicator as there were 45 this year as opposed to 42 last. We will most likely see 22+ in this 2nd Rd which will be interesting as the East has 2 series that will go 6 or 7 games (so 12-14) but the Refs will have to extend Ws and Hou series to 5 each at least (10) to get our 22. Watch for some key Ref crews of Foster/Brothers in a Utah and New Orleans home win.

The Conf Finals is where we make our hay as both series (76ers/Raps and Hou/Ws) will go 6 or 7 each to go from that revenue disaster of 9 last season to 13. Add in a 6 or 7 game Final and we hit the new magic # of  41.

All this simply means road teams will start winning to extend series. The run of home teams winning 37-11 is most likely over,(the last 25 is 22-3 in fav of home team).  

My take on referees. The League had a great attrition this season of senior playoff refs losing both Crawford and McCutchen. That hole is being filled by the likes of Stafford, Davis and Capers to supplement old timers Mauer, Callahan and our favorite Foster. This is the first time these guys are the lead refs in the playoffs and I think we have to cap them as much as the games themselves.

Interesting note: at 7 games into the playoffs, LBJ at this point is usually one game (not series mind you) away from clinching 2nd rd and his trip to east Finals, now 7 games in he is just about to start the 2nd round, he will likely have to play 19 games to get to the Finals where he is used to playing only 14 or 15, that is a huge difference and in my opinion the reason Cavs don't make it out of the east this year, simply too many games against hungrier, younger competition and quite honestly is the better script as he bows out early and vows to come back stronger next season with a new team, better story over the offseason and creates intrigue. LBJ going to the Finals and losing to Ws or Hou doesn't make any sense as why would he leave Cleveland if he got so close, they need him to exit and re emerge.

thanks Bleeding

I think this 76/Cs game is a good indication of how things work as majority saw an easy Philly win and somehow Cs w/out their top scorer out (again x3) manhandled

there is an agenda and Boston just bought themselves a 7th game, now how does the West play out is the great debate

Now let's gamble.

Brad Stevens and the Celtics with Kyrie and Hayward have a bright 5 year future in the East without LeBron. There is no chance in hell that the League allows Celtics w/out their 2 marquee players to advance any further, it's bad business to say your Vacuum Super Sucker 1500 w/out the couch attachment and pet hair strainer can still beat your new Vacuum 2500 w/ all the rookie attachments intact.

Philly has been destined to get to East Finals against Raps or Cavs as a depleted Celtics team is not the play, doesn't make sense as NBA will trot out their best product. Embiid and Simmons are the future and will have many, many playoff match-ups against Kyrie and the Celts and we will be reminiscing of when Philly beat Boston but Boston was w/out Kyrie and Hayward. This is the lowest you'll get 76ers to win this series. It would be a catastrophe  for the League for Cs to face Cavs or Raps in Finals in my opinion on so many levels. The Cs get the same nod as Bucks as they gave it the old college try without their best (player/coach) and live to fight another day.

16-21

Bookmaker has reopened at -260. If we get another Boston win in game 2, it’ll dive quick 

This is a unique situation where home teams have now pushed their advantage to 38-11 and after Tuesday could very well be 40-11. I f the League extends series this is a must be competitive game for Utah. I love the fact that Jazz haven't had an offensive outburst in a while, I love the fact that Hou is in cruise control and have ripped off 3 wins in a row. If ever there was a time for a road team to show up this is it. Hou allowed over this TT in 10 of last 11 playoff games last year, Hou has allowed over this TT in 4 of 6 games this year. With these ref crews and the chance of OT I think this has a great chance to come in.

111-110 somebody

Referees for today:

G1 Cavs/Raps - Stafford/Fraher/Goble

Stafford is a perfect 6-0 SU for the home team in playoffs this season and 10-2 last year. Cavs are 1-4 SU on the road in regular season w/ Stafford.

G2 Pels/GS - Callahan (Harry)/Phillips/Wright

Callahan is 5-1 SU for home team in these playoffs. Warriors opponents avg. 114ppg with combos of this crew. After 2 dud playoff unders I can imagine this crew is ready for a fun, fast paced game. This crew is notorious for allowing a bunch of points and I think Pels and my road theory fit the bill here.

Hawks, Nets, Spurs, Lakers, Suns, Hawks, Kings, Suns, Thunder, Suns not exactly Murder's Row when you think about it and that is exactly the only wins for Warriors the last month and a half of the season, funny how people forget that and they were playing for something and just not cruising. 5 of those losses were at Oracle. This is a vulnerable Ws team.

I'd completely throw out that series against the Spurs b/c San Antonio had many distractions and quite honestly was not a playoff team nor a good gauge of where Ws sit right now.

Tonight Ws get their first taste of a playoff caliber team and that is great in my mind. We have many factors working in our favor the chief being the above record, add road teams will start getting the calls, a great fast paced team that can take another fast paced team out of their game, a perfect ref crew for an avalanche of point for the road team and against the Warriors in general. I'd imagine Pels get 30+ FT tonight. Love going against star players coming back angle as well.

How any Raps/Ws ML parlays hang in the balance tonight? Road team now 3-23 in last 26 that ends too.

117-112 Pels

My theory is working as series are being extended to get us to 22 in Rd 2

G2 Jazz/Rockets - our old friends Foster/Brothers

These guys are as shady as it gets. In the 6 post season games they've refereed they have brought teams back from the brink of extinction: Heat G2 after G1 thrashing in a seies they didn't belong, Bucks G3 after being down 0-2, Spurs G4 in a tip of the cap to Pops and Cavs G7 to keep LBJ advancing.

I'd imagine the League is gripping a bit as Ws now have Curry back and up 2-0 over Pels. A sweep by GS and Hou as the East slugs it out in 7 games is not good. We need Hou and GS to go at least 5 games to balance the ledger.

104-111 somebody

rd team avg 110ppg w/ Foster/Brothers in last year's playoffs

I felt like this is the game utah had to steal. game 2 or game 5. we got this 

5-14, no that's not my record as I went 24-1 in rd2 bets so far to get to 40-22 in the playoffs

that my friends is Raptors playoff road record last 4 years, with a stout 0-5 in Cleveland. The League knows Raps are in jeopardy on the road and can't allow their 2nd best record to suffer anymore. 

You heard it here 1st, the NBA does not want LBJ in the Finals, it's not good business long term. More on this later.

Raps have not avalanched a game yet this postseason as their biggest margin of victory has been 10pts. It's been exactly a year ago today that Cavs humiliated and dominated Raps from the jump in a G2 125-103 thrashing on the way to a sweep. If we get a decent ref crew led by Davis then Raps should pile it on after years of frustration while Cavs pack it in happy with their split and home dominance of Toronto upcoming thus I'll have 5 bets on -6.5. This should be a Raptors party just waiting on the ref crew.

I doubt Boston scores in this game so will be looking at their TT under depending on ref crew.

Regardless of the ref crew I believe this is a poor spot for Boston. They've come off the emotional high of winning G7 against Bucks then rallying to stun 76ers G1 and now reality and fatigue from a short rotation will set in. Stevens is pragmatic and will not over extend his line-up in a lost cause. In 10 playoff losses the Cs have scored over 102pts only once, and that was with all star players in the line ups. Cs will know this and ugly up this game and try to steal an ugly low scoring win. The opening total kinda tips as it remains low at 205 despite the plethora of overs.

104-93 Sixers

G2 Cavs/Raps - Mauer/Fitzgerald/Forte

Seasoned refs that realize the importance of this game and have a history of road teams scoring under 102ppg. Cavs scored a key G4 win 104-100 at Indy to knot that series up at 2 apiece. This is a good crew to keep Cavs in check and I'd imagine raps throw the kitchen sink at them on defense, buckets won't be so easy to come by.