Posted:
#326
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phixer's nba
Posted:
#329
Final Card Results for Monday November 11, 2013
705 San Antonio Spurs/Philadelphia 76ers Under 204 -105*
701 Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Bobcats Over 195 -108*
703 Memphis Grizzlies/Indiana Pacers Under 182½ -105*
714 Utah Jazz +2½ -103* vs Denver Nuggets
715 Detroit Pistons/Portland Trailblazers Over 197 -118
2013-2014 NBA
ATS YTD 11-8 58%
O/U YTD 11-3 78.5%
Overall YTD 22-11 67%
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Posted:
#330
507 NO Pelicans/LA Lakers Under 199 -105*
LA ranked 5th in opponent ppg allowed (91.3)
Last 6 games between NO/LA averaged 186.5 ppg
NO UNDER last 3 games
NO UNDER 4 out of last 7
NO UNDER 2 out of 3 on the road
NO UNDER 3 out of 4 against conference
NO UNDER 2 out of 3 on one day rest
NO is ranked 10th in Defensive Efficiency
LA is ranked 28th in Offensive Efficiency
LA UNDER 3 out of 4 after a loss
LA UNDER 4 out of 7 as underdog and 2/3 as Home Underdog
LA UNDER 3 out of 5 on one day rest
LA UNDER 4 out of 6 vs non divisional
+++ FYI- This UNDER is going against sharp $ which seems to be on the over.
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Posted:
#331
Quote Originally Posted by wwtpglobal:
Final Card Results for Monday November 11, 2013
Final Card Results for Monday November 11, 2013
705 San Antonio Spurs/Philadelphia 76ers Under 204 -105*
701 Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Bobcats Over 195 -108*
703 Memphis Grizzlies/Indiana Pacers Under 182½ -105*
714 Utah Jazz +2½ -103* vs Denver Nuggets
715 Detroit Pistons/Portland Trailblazers Over 197 -118
2013-2014 NBA
ATS YTD 11-8 58%
O/U YTD 11-3 78.5%
Overall YTD 22-11 67%
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Posted:
#333
Adding:
501 Milwaukee Bucks +14 -120* vs Miami Heat
These teams will lend to a slower paced game (contrary to public belief) with MIA dead last in fast break points (8.3 overall and 6.7 in last 3 games) and MIL not much better at 10 per game. With the slower pace MIL has a shot at keeping it competitive till the end - MIA's avg lead margin thru 3 quarters in their last 3 games is only 3 points, with MIL ranking 8th in 4th quarter scoring on the road. MIA's home margin of victory is 6.5 and overall only 4.3. This should again help the stout defense of MIL keep it close. MIL is 6th best in 3pts % allowed and 9th overall in 3pts made against them.
MIL hasn't lost or won back to back games and they are coming off of a loss...There has been favorable line movement indicating sharp money on MIL, which shouldnt be a surprise but is always reassuring.
MIA is 0-3 vs double digit spreads this year
MIA is 2 of 7 ATS overall
MIA is 0 of 2 ATS after a loss
MIA is 1 of 4 ATS at home, 1 of 3 as home fav
MIA is 2 of 6 ATS conference games
MIA is 0 of 3 against double digit spreads
-----------------------------------------------------
MIL is 3 of 5 ATS
MIL is 2 of 2 ATS on the road
MIL is 2 of 2 ATS as road dogs
MIL is 3 of 4 ATS vs conference
MIA 105 MIL 93
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Posted:
#336
503 Washington Wizards/Dallas Mavericks Over 206 -109*
I'll start by pointing out that line movement is indicating sharp $ has been coming in on the under since this morning, whch shoudn't be a surprise - I'm taking the trends and the over. This game reminds me of betting Broncos Overs early in the season - no line was high enough.
Both D's allow the scoreboard to be lit up.
Was 21st / Dal 24th in defensive efficiency
Was 29th / Dal 18th in opp points per game allowed in the last 3
Was 29th / Dal 25th in opp points per game allowed
Was 27th / Dal 23rd vs the fast break
Both O's light it up
Was 10th / Dal 4th in Off Efficiency
Was 6th / Dal 2nd PPG
Was 5th / Dal 8th in Fast break ppg
Was 3rd on the road / Dal 5th @ home 3pt%
Was OVER 5 of 6 overall
Was OVER 3 of 4 on the road
Was OVER 2 of 3 after a loss
Was OVER 3 of 4 as a dog, 2 of 3 as a road dog
Was OVER 3 of 4 after one day's rest
WAS leads the league in 3 pointers made
Dal OVER 5 of 7 overall
Dal OVER 2 of 3 coming off a win
Dal OVER 3 of 3 at home
Dal OVER 3 of 3 as HomeFav
Dal OVER 3 of 3 after any rest
Was 108 Dal 113
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Posted:
#342
Full Card for Wednesday November 12, 2013
2013-2014 NBA
ATS YTD 11-9 55%
O/U YTD 11-6 65%
Overall YTD 22-14 61%
719 Pho Suns/Por Trailblazers Under 201 -105*
701 Mil Bucks/Orl Magic Over 194 -105*
723 OKC Thunder/LA Clippers Under 209 -118*
713 Was Wizards/SA Spurs Under 197½ -107*
704 Phi 76ers +6½ -103* vs Hou Rockets
Write Up's coming...Best of luck all.
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Posted:
#343
719 Phoenix Suns/Portland Trailblazers Under 201 -105*
This is the highest total for PHO (2nd highest for POR this year) DUe to some key stats, this game has strong potential to get sloppy causing both teams to be winded down the stretch. Pho is 5th in blocks, 6th in steals offensively and is 25th in TO's and 27th in TO's per off play. They turn it over often but when they do it isn't translating into points as they have the 6th highest rated defense so far this year holding both Portland and SA under 100pts.
This also has signs of being a quick game with Por 3rd & PHO 7th best in the league keeping opponents off of the ft stripe, keeping the clock running...Here's an important stat-
NBA TEAMS OPP FT's per offensive play rating: POR 2nd best, PHO 4th best, both teams don't foul (5th and 7th best)...Clock keeps running, TO's and blocks are happening - POR has 3rd least amount of 3's made against them and lead the league in this stat in their last 3.PHO def is 5th best in PPG allowed. Short game with lots of running...
Last 7 games between PHO/POR:
UNDER 5 of 7
UNDER 2 of 3 in POR
AVG TOTAL = 196.5
PHO:
UNDER 4 of 6 overall
UNDER 3 of 3 after a win
UNDER 3 of 4 as a dog
UNDER 4 of 6 vs conference opponent
UNDER 4 of 6 VS non divisional
Held POR to 91 pts 13 days ago,the UNDER 197.5 hit.
POR:
3 of their 7 games have been against last ranked defenses (SAC and DET) they will have their hands full with PHO D tonight...POR 101 PHO 96
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Posted:
#345
Quote Originally Posted by jjames9:
97% of bets are on the over here. Thoughts on that? Also, where are you seeing 201 as the O/U? Love your write-ups by the way. Great rundown of stats. Keep them coming!
97% of bets are on the over here. Thoughts on that? Also, where are you seeing 201 as the O/U? Love your write-ups by the way. Great rundown of stats. Keep them coming!
JJ - I placed this around 10am this morning, the line had dropped a full point to 200.5 inspite of the majority of the tickets coming in were on the over...Then very heavy over $ came in around 1:30 crashing the line & causing a jump to 205...looks like it has finally settled around 203; should be very interesting - and fun. It's spotrs just like these that help us all remember - we're betting lines, not games, teams or athletes...best of luck JJ.
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Posted:
#347
713 Washington Wizards/San Antonio Spurs Under 197½ -107*
2013-2014 NBA
ATS YTD 11-9 55%
O/U YTD 11-6 65%
Overall YTD 22-14 61%
Early line movement indicated heavy under money...WAS opponents have grabbed more rebounds against them than any other team in the league this year. THey are dead last allowing 57.6 boards and over 60 in their last 3 games. Sa's defense ranked #1 in efficieny in the league over their last 3 games, and ranked 2nd over the last 2 weeks.SA has allowed the 2nd least fast break points and the best home team in the league (WAS is a dismal 19th rated road team)...SA controls this pace, and keeps the tempo slow and WAS off the scoreboard.
SAS UNDER 5 of 8
SAS UNDER 4 of last 5
SAS UNDER 2 of 3 at home and 2 of 3 as HomeFav
SAS UNDER 4 of 6 after a win
SAS UNDER 5 of 8 as a favorite
SA 103 Was 91
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