A good read for some of you out there.

7 Steps to Winning at Sports Betting

1. Patience and Discipline

Before getting into things like money management and the ability to pick winners, you must decide if this is something you really want to put a lot of time into. If you're getting entertainment value out of it, going through the ups and downs, and all the time spent behind a computer studying new information, trying to get it right, might get in the way of the entertainment value you once had. For example, three times a year I like to stay at the casino and play black jack. I have no intentions of learning systems, or counting cards. I'm there because I get to be social, meet new people, and have free cocktails delivered in large quantities, by hot waitresses in skimpy outfits. Of course part of the rush is knowing there's a chance I might get it all for free, but the thought of staying sober, zoning everyone out, to make a profit, would completely destroy the enjoyment I get out of it. If being entertained isn't your main concern when it comes to sports betting, then you're ready for step two.

2. Money Management

Money management is probably one of the most important things to learn first. Some will say money management is useless if you can't pick winners and not the most important thing. I do agree with that, but before you can learn to win correctly, you must learn to lose correctly. Minimizing losses is imperative while learning, or trying new systems. There's no shame in betting ten or even five dollars a game while on your journey figuring out how to pick winners. I do think it is important to have something on it though. Being able to get the best number, and pretending to get the best number can be two different things. So what's good money management? For beginners I suggest betting 1% flat bets while using a small bank roll. Learning to pick winners could take years, and its best to lose the least possible, all the while saving a separate amount of cash for the big bank roll you will need once you can pick winners. Once you get to the promise land and have a large sample size to look at, you can decide whether going full-Kelly, or using variation unit sizes that best fit your abilities to maximize profits. One misstep is over valuing your bet size with variations. Make sure your sample size is big enough to justify your variations.

3. Picking Winners

While some people have the natural ability to look at the board and pick winners, most of us will need to take a mathematical approach of some kind. Some will use trends and stats, I suggest that before coming up with a good mathematical approach you must first come up with a way to make your own power rankings. Be creative, try to think of things when doing your power rankings that most might not be considering. For instance basing your power rankings, on pitching in baseball may not be the way to go.

A: Filters

Once you find a power ranking system that gets you close or a little over breaking even its time to use some filters. Again be creative, try to find connections between your winners and losers, and back track it. Maybe you noticed that plays that are juiced above -150 are costing you, or maybe its super huge dogs, what ever it is, get rid of those plays. Look at the public, know who they're on, maybe there's a correlation with your losers or winners that can be used as a filter. Dissect your large sample with a fine microscope, leave no stone unturned.

B: Regression to the mean

Another thing to consider when trying to find a system or filter that works. Not saying that some teams are due to win or lose, but like the stock market buying low and selling high are important things to consider. Bad teams may have value, while good teams will be juiced to a flaw.

4. Education

A: Read

Educate yourself! Read anything you can get your eyes on, pertaining to sports betting. While 99% of it will be junk, there's always that 1%, that diamond in the rough, that will change the way you do things for the better, and make you money.

B: Associate with winners

When I was in the Marine Corps, my commanding officer told me something I will never forget.

"No matter what situation you're in, no matter how bad, someone else has been there before, there really are no unique situations anymore. Even if most failed under the same circumstances, you'll always find someone that has succeeded against all odds. Find out how he did it and emulate him."

Never stop learning. The moment you stop learning, things become tedious and boring. Who wants a boring job?

5. Line movement

Just how important is understanding line movement? Very important! For example take two winning betters that have the exact same picks. One has ten outs for line shopping but zero understanding of line movement, the other has one out but has line movement mastered. The guy who has line movement mastered will get the best line that the one book offers, the guy with ten outs, but strikes at the wrong times, will more times than not get a worse line than the guy with one out.

Line movement can be a tricky thing to understand, and really takes a lot of dedication to fully get it. Different things can cause line movement. Injuries, syndicates, sharp money, public money, and Big money. Finding the right time to strike on a play can make you ton more money! An easy beginners way to do this is to find a sharp book, and follow their movements. Have your plays ready. As soon as this book moves against you it's time to strike. If this sharp book never moves against your play, it may be a good idea to pass on your play. (Hint this could make a great filter)

6. Have multiple outs

While understanding line movement is more important, it's still important to have multiple outs. Once you've found the perfect time to strike, having multiple outs and getting the best line available at that time will make you even more money. Getting -120 instead of -125 is so important. Imagine you have 500 winning plays betting a dime in a year. Missing out on that 5 extra points just cost you $16,500. Would you throw that kind of money away?

7. Beating the closing line

What is beating the closing line? Click on your profile, view a pick. Look at the odds you got, then click on it and look at the closing line. Is the number you got a bigger payout? Did you miss out on a better number? If you're missing out more often than not, you have work to do. Even if you're raking it in, if you're not beating the closing number, you're leaving money on the table and may want to consider a new striking method.

Lets recap.

1. Patience and Discipline

2. Money Management

3. Picking Winners

4. Education

5. Line Movement

6. Having Multiple Outs

Odds are, if you're doing all these things correctly you're also doing number 7, beating the closing line.

Beating the closing line = Winning

 aye aye el kapitan!

I won't be on the board for a few days, if you need to reach me add me on Skype messenger tony.covers

I hope you are not limiting yourself to only NBA as there good plays in MLB as well.   I like your one play idea but baseball has opportunities as well.  What happens in football season?

To celebrate 10,000 page views and our 3-0 record so far ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gARrt2xv53g

PLAY IT LOUD & PROUD

Use Games 1-4 as research, to make a profit in Games 5-7.

Find the trend, get the angle, and use it to your advantage (profit).

It takes discipline, you have to reach in and find it for long-term success.

do you have plays for later?

Use Games 1-4 as research, to make a profit in Games 5-7.

Find the trend, get the angle, and use it to your advantage (profit).

It takes discipline, you have to reach in and find it for long-term success.

Agreed!! I added u on Skype btw bro

Yes, early games in the series ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN let the storyline play out and use it to your benefit in games 5-7.

Maybe Game 4 in certain cases. The key is let the teams show their hands and cash in on it later down the road.

Talk to you on Skype.

5 Ways to Think Like a Champion

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Think Like a Champion. Champions think differently than everyone else. They approach their life and work with a different mindset and belief system that separates them from the pack.

– When they walk on the court, on the field, into a meeting or in a classroom they expect to win. In fact they are surprised when they don’t win. They expect success and their positive beliefs often lead to positive actions and outcomes. They win in their mind first and then they win in the hearts and minds of their customers, students or fans.

– By celebrating the small wins champions gain the confidence to go after the big wins. Big wins and big success happen through the accumulation of many small victories. This doesn’t mean champions become complacent. Rather, with the right kind of celebration and reinforcement, champions work harder, practice more and believe they can do greater things.

– They don’t focus on the faults of others. They focus on what they can do better. They see their mistakes and defeats as opportunities for growth. As a result they become stronger, wiser and better.

Get To Do, Not What They Have To Do – They see their life and work as a gift not an obligation. They know that if they want to achieve a certain outcome they must commit to and appreciate the process. They may not love every minute of their journey but their attitude and will helps them develop their skill.

– Their faith is greater than their fear. Their positive energy is greater than the chorus of negativity. Their certainty is greater than all the doubt. Their passion and purpose are greater than their challenges. In spite of their situation champions believe their best days are ahead of them, not behind them.

don’t think you have what it takes to be a champion, think again. Champions aren’t born. They are shaped and molded. And as iron sharpens iron you can develop your mindset and the mindset of your team with the right thinking, beliefs and expectations that lead to powerful actions.

I didn't play the Knicks game but I had it analyzed for right once.haha

No need to play just for action.

Important article to read regarding the lines that you see.
If you see Heat -11.5 it doesn't mean that the books are
thinking the Heat will win by 11.5+ points. Rather, the line
is set to get the action in their favor. It's all based on perception
of where they think the action will come in on, based on a set line.
The goal is money, they don't care who which team wins or losses
it all comes down to numbers, and getting the action in their favor.

Think like an oddsmaker and less as a fan, and good things will happen for you.

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Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.

Oddsmakers are so intent on keeping the action even that they actually move the line in response to betting patterns. If too many bets are coming in for the underdog, then that team might have been given too many points, so the line is moved. Bets made prior to the move are still counted at the old line. Some bettors will make additional bets after the line moves, on the opposite side of the game. This is known as middling. For example, let's say the opening line on a football game is Tampa Bay -7; SAN FRANCISCO. A lot of people might think Tampa Bay will beat San Francisco by more than seven points, so they all bet on Tampa. The oddsmaker sees this pattern and moves the line, giving Tampa -10. Now, Tampa has to win by more than ten points for bets placed on Tampa to win. A bettor can place another bet with the new line, this time on San Francisco. If Tampa wins the game by eight points, the bettor has middled -- he's won on both bets.

Sometimes a single well-known gambler can force oddsmakers to move the line. When one of these gamblers makes a bet, a lot of people pay attention and bet the same way, because he has a reputation for winning frequently. This can draw so much action to one side of the bet that the oddsmaker must move the line.

good stuff tony thanks for posting

Canucks ML tonight as they absolutely need the win and I believe they are actually going to put forth the effort they need to after letting a close one get by them, they should come out strong and win 3-1, if they lose tonight they go down 3-0 to the sharks and that's an insurmountable task to win 4 straight. Tonight is the night or it's all done for the Nucks and their fans.

id also just like to add that unofficially we got a win on the grizzlies spread. 

Yes, by all means if you see an angle or have some insight to share go for it and help each other out. Personally these early games are a gem to gauge the rest of the series and profit.

Tip o' the hat to you Tony. I was away for a few days and pulled up this thread on a lark.

 This is was what I was hoping to find when I came to Covers. Collaborative support and rational discourse in a forum that promotes standards geared for success. NOT a visceral post apocolyptic landscape of mind numbing bashing and trashing.

This format offers the beginner and the sharp an opportunity to learn and polish as well as giving something back in return. Old school reciprocity is alive and well.

Anyone who has endured an 18%  stretch can tell you that 'capping is not a playground...that games frequently do not play out as they cap out.  This thread offers skill building. Thanks.

There are a few other submitters  that carry the same spirit of giving and approach. Make for a nice short list.

Big tony just finished reading your quotes. You can tell these methods have been working for you!!! Thanks for sharing. Your a champ for sure!!!!!

liking both faves to cover BIG point spreads in game 1
heat -12 as no deng and could easily be a let down spot after playing so hard short handed against an under achieving nets team. LeBron gets mvp tonight and see the rested heat make this a statement game to set the tone. look for Chicago to have difficulty scoring against this good heat D
spurs -9 as spurs defend the perimeter very well. bogut played well in close out game but spurs will surely control the tempo and gsw D is very soft. spurs will get a nice lead and grind this jump shooting team to easy victory...

both dogs covered yesterday and both should have won su. another reason faves today look to make statements...