One play for tomorrow - Heat @ Suns

20-10 in last 30

NBA record is 0-3 so need for a write-up because who would want to read it from a guy who is 0-3.

I expect the line to rise as well.

Basically it comes down to this:

1. Goran Dragic still hates the Suns after his trade last year and is still taking shots at them in the media. Expect him to play above, possibly well above, his admittedly mediocre averages this year.

You also have Gerald Green who is returning to PHX for the first time and also should be motivated to put up numbers above his averages.

2. The Suns are still a hot mess. They are 1-9 in their last 10 and they beat a Hornets team because it was missing arguably one of their best offensive player and best perimeter defender in Nicolas Batum. Starting in his place? Jeremy Lin. Before that. I know full well what happened before that. They went down 40-16 to the LAKERS. As I type the Lakers are trailing the Kings 23-4 and are 9 pt underdogs in that game. 9 pt dogs...to the Kings and you went down 40-16...Yeah, I'll lay 5 to that team even on the road.

3. You get an angry Heat team that just came off a loss to the hated rival Knicks who torched them shooting 56% from the floor. 

Time to take it out on the lowly Suns.

The line was supposed to be 4 but I guess it is already rising. If I get backdoored, so be it. 

If I lose this one, I don't know when I'll be back in this forum!

@ Bizzey - ya see Bizzey, I saw this Kings line at -9 over the Lakers and thought the books were pulling a bait and switch.

Who in their right mind would lay 9 with a team like the Kings? A team that gave up 8 straight points in Double OT to the Mavs to lose two nights prior. 

That screams this team can't hold leads right? So the Lakers are the play.

Having said that there's a different angle to support the Kings: the Lakers have been thriving without Kobe winning 3 of 4.

Now Kobe was back and he'd disrupt the offensive flow against a pist off Kings team who had DWill sink them with a soul crushing 3 in the game before.

So the Kings are the play right?

Well every bone in my body would not allow me to bet the Kings laying 9 on principle, so I say it out but watched thinking the Kings should pull through with a win and cover as rusty Kobe shoots them off the floor.

So what happens? Kings go up 23-4!

Now folks, it doesn't get any better to start a game than that when you play a favorite.

Then the Kings extend the lead to 27! Again, if you are not the Warriors this year or the Clippers of last year, that is about as big an in-game lead as you can ask for when trying to cover a number like 9. That is, as a bettor, you are in the best position possible to win your bet. The BEST!

Mind you, 9 is a great number with that lead too! Because if the lead drops to around 16, the coach gets aggressive to not let it go to a key number like 10 (and this is more psychological than anything, not allowing a opponent to shrink the lead to single digits which can get the team leading quite vexed). So at -9 you have a huge lead and an aggressive coach who wants to maintain that lead at least 1 point over your spread!

Great spot right?

Not in the NBA.

Lakers not only come back to comfortably cover worth the spread they took the lead by one 110-109, they almost WON the game, losing 115-118.

 

Now you'd think someone must have gotten injured on the Kings or something right? Something to screw you at the worst possible time to lose the cover?

Wrong. You are DEAD wrong.

The best player of the night on the LAKERS got injured and left the game: D'Angelo Russell!

If he doesn't leave the game after scoring 27 points, the Kings almost certainly lose outright!!!!

This is a book's dream. They win all the dog bets. They win all the teasers on the Kings. They don't pay out a mountain of money on conservative Kings' ML bets, they win all the Lakers ML bets, and they win all the in-game ML bets on people chasing the Lakers as they came back (and this last lot comes in droves as bettors chase their losses for a big payout on the last game of the night with longshot bets).

What a surprise...

A 21 pt lead to open the game, extended to 27 is ultimately a loser, and not even a CLOSE loser when laying 9 with the home team.

Betting the NBA....good luck to those who try this nightly.

Two years ago, the Knicks gave up 51 points in a QUARTER against a Laker team that was playing its entire (atrocious) bench!!!

FINALLY I won one

And we definitely would not have won this too close for comfort game if not for the ex-Suns unceremoniously departed, playing way above their heads:

Dragic 22 and 7a (averages 12 and 5)

Green 21 and 4r (averages 11 and 2) 9/14 shooting

And believe me, without those two performances, we do NOT win.

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to find these spots, ya just have to recognize them when they arise.

I forgot Amare plays for Miami. He came off the bench and had a few blocks and rebounds. Big night for him, too. When I lived in Phoenix, I'd see him out at tons of bars and restaurants.