2017 Record: 2-4
The pick:
LAKERS +2 over Nuggets
Late post because I didn't have confirmation on D'Angelo.
Every year, the Oscars and Grammy's and all the stars, with their self-aggrandizing glitz and glory, descend on the Staples Center.
And every year, all the teams that play at Staples, leave for long road trips.
I looked into how the Lakers responded to the game before they left for this road trip, particularly with the taking Lakers teams in recent years.
Like the previous "Worst loss in history bounce back" angle that we used to win the Blazer game, if this angle works for tanking teams, it should most certainly work for a Laker team that is not tanking (and this team is not tanking. That is why Walton is the coach).
Tonight they play their final home game before the takeover, 7 of 8 on the road. How did tanking teams in previous years fair.
1. 2015-2016 Lakers: 17-65 (tanking)
Before the Lakers left for 7 of 8 on the road in 2016 the Lakers beat the Timberwolves 119-115 as 4.5 pt Dogs.
2. 2014-2015 Lakers: 21-61 (tanking)
Before the Lakers left for 5 of 6 on the road the Lakers beat the Bulls outright 123-118 as a whopping 9.5 pt dogs.
3. 2014-2013 Lakers: 27-55 (tanking)
Before the Lakers left for 7 game road trip, they covered against the Cavs 118-120 as 4 pt dogs.
If you want to go back further with much better Laker teams we can:
2013 road trip: 111-106 Win over Charlotte (No cover at -8)
2012 road trip: Won and covered 106-73 over Charlotte as 12.5 pt favorites.
I could keep going. Is this a HUGE sample size? No it's quite small at 4-1 ATS in the past 5. The point being, tanking teams VALUE their opportunities to win because a slew of losses on a road trip might be forthcoming.
And this Laker team is really struggling, and just game back from a 3 game road trip (where they were swept by the Mavs Blazers and Jazz) and now embark on another 7 of 8.
This exponentially increases the value of this home game for their confidence and as a small increase to their win total but an increase they haven't enjoyed of late.
But there are other reasons to take the Lakers.
1. D'Angleo Russell returns tonight without a minutes restriction. He is by far their best player and solidifies the PG position as well as enhances trust in the starting lineup (despite Lou going off of late). He's apparently worth (up to a) whopping 3.5 pts on the line to Vegas because the Lakers went from +6.5 to +10 for two recent games at the Blazers with him in and out of the lineup respectively. That's quite significant from their metrics at least.
2. Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets best player by far of late, will not play. He averaged 23.9, 11.1 and 4.9 assists in January. All of that is now out of the lineup.
3. The stain of the Mavericks "Worst loss in history" has not been rectified. The Lakers had a very tough trip after that going to Portland (where they celebrated the '77 Championship team and then immediately had to go into the elevation in Utah at 13 pt dogs). They covered both games and were in both games very late as they fought for wins not covers. This is a team that wants a win of any kind at the moment.
4. Finally, they just saw Denver on 1/17/2017 where they lost at home (with Jokic who had 29 and 15 that night and he'll be out here) in a very competitive game 126-121. It's very GOOD to have just played a team and have seen their offensive and defensive sets.
5. Finally they've had a 5 days separating this game from their last game to stew about their recent slew of losses and that Dallas game. And now they can right the scarlet-letter wrong in front of the home fans before they leave for what might seem like forever.
I'd like to note the Lakers were very competitive in the last Jazz game (against an angry Jazz team coming off a loss) even though their plane landed at 2:45 in the morning and they didn't practice, running on adrenaline and still covering comfortably and playing gutty in an 8 pt loss.
Julius Randle will not play. Can't have it all. Lakers have dropped 8 of 9. Nuggets have won 7 of 9. Good to be against what is typically public favoritism because of those streaks.
BOL
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