NBA Player Props 11/11

LAC Harden u22.5 Pts -135 BP

SZN: 69-52 | +2.7u | +2.23% ROI

L20: 13-7 | +3.85u | 19.25% ROI

Harden going against his old team in OKC there could be some added motivation there  Good luck 

Thanks!

I don't play on scripts, I play on value and it works long-term. He has been bumped to 21.5 most places already so the value is secured! I certainly understand your angle though 

BKY Finney-Smith o13.5 PRA -115 BP

NOP Ingram o23.5 Pts -135 BV

CLE Allen o13.5 Pts -145 BV

To be fair you are paying insane juice at 22.5...over the long run that will be tough to beat

I don't believe -135 is insane juice?

Just to put it in perspective last year I was 295-180 which is 62.11%, break-even there is -164. My avg odds over these bets was -127.8

So I was way ahead of the vig, you only care about comparing vig to hit rate and odds. 

This year I'm 69-52 (57.02%) which is -133 and my average odds so far is -126 hence +ROI. 

I factor all this in, just like playing -200 and hitting 70% is profit. So I disagree with your statement and I'm open to hearing a counterargument. 

Also almost all my plays have +CLV, mathematical guarantee to profit. Whether he hits or chalks idc, I care that I secured value which inevitably leads to +ROI. Also why I love volume, I will end the season around 1500-2000 plays roughly. 

@dubz4dummyz

Respectfully of course. 

I just wanted to highlight that I am very detailed when it comes to data/numbers. I treat this like a market and have made mistakes, learned from them and dialed in further. Everything I do is to try and capture ROI, idc about storylines or having "inclings" on things. Basic math is one of strong attributes. 

And just consider my lense, if this line closes at 21.5 or better, (or more juiced odds at same line), I already won the bet regardless of outcome, I don't care if it hits or not I already won. This holds true over 1000+ wagers. 

@emoltzan

 Keep up the good work!

CHI Giddey o23.5 PRA -118 PB

GL E 

@emoltzan

 No I agree with most of what you said. You are just way off a standard -115 nba player prop

Yes you are securing CLV but at a cost to your numbers

What % of your picks have actually come down to the hook coming into play. Does that amount offset the lost value of the juiced lines.

Why the jump from around 500 plays last year to 1500-2000 this year? The success from last year leading to more potential plays?

SAS Castle u19.5 PRA -115 BP

Bol  

I like Ingram 

Thanks 72 

It's a square play but it's the right play 

Classic lol 

My range of odds last year was about -115 to -150, I didn't love -150 but I played them in certain spots. I typically am 1.0 better than the -115 lines so yes I can see your point of view and incorporating the hook in would be valuable data. I haven't tabulated it but definitely have won many times by the "reverse hook" if you will, again not tabulated so I can't claim the value you mention. 

As far as volume, last year I started in January so that's the main reason, I widened parameters to allow for more plays too. I did just calculate and I'm currently on pace for 1000, so behind my initial claim but that was a guess without calculating. I hope to make 1500 plays though, we'll see if the pace increases. 

@emoltzan

 Ya you are essentially buying points as opposed to CLV..although you could claim it as CLV I suppose..so you should calculate if buying those points is actually benefitting you. You should be able to figure it out pretty quickly since you seem good with numbers

Anyways good luck rest of the year. Always check to see if my thoughts are lining up with yours 

BKY Claxton u10.5 Reb -132 BP

another circus.my bookmaker gives Ingram over 24.5pts.And of course this is another 0.5pts loss because Ingram the clown makes 2 points in the second half.And of course they won't do overtime either."I love" the NBA

Yep I have 3 books I use and 2 were 24.5 one was 23.5, bumped to 24.5 later

I never play bumps because I expect to play over 1000 plays so no FOMO for me

Need multiple books long-term but either way I expected upper 20s for him if not 30, gets over 23.5 by hitting 2 FTs in whole second half as the primary shot taker in a close game.... wowzer 

@dubz4dummyz

There's 1 reverse hook lol, usually 1 per night on these NBA plays. 

@emoltzan

 many people cannot afford to have a bookmaker's choice (blocking regions, etc.).When playing on the main line of most bookmakers, the loss is very often 0.5pts. And Ingram is a lazy player who has fixed the results many times.For him, 2 points in a half is the norm.He didn't move today either, he didn't need to.

What book for you?

@emoltzan

 Yessir. +1 unit on Ingram but -1.45 units on Allen...where maybe Allen over 14.5 points would have been -1.15 units....now multiply that over 10000+ plays