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Mathematical Line Versus A Perceived Line

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Posted: #51

well last night you would have went (2-7), if your referring to fading my plays... as for tonight, the plays are posted above.. if your not referring to fading, then explain a little more.

Falcon

 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by tgarfield:



Thanks for your fade material. I will be fading your every pick because math is for suckers and geeks.

Math is for geeks and........... ADVATAGE GAMBLERS retard

 
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Posted: #53
There are much better ways to test the accurace of your system.  Send me a PM and il get you in the right direction
 
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Posted: #54
No, I am asking how are the games fairing against your math line. Not fading. Against your math line are favorites wining more or less? Over or under is covering more?
 
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Posted: #55
GL with your system
 
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Posted: #56
It all comes down to a law of averages. Just because your numbers say the line should be one way, does not effect the outcome of the game. The books want you to bet longer, because in the long run the numbers all equal out around 50%. so in the mean time they are taking your 10% juice. GL its a theory, however so is throwing darts at a dart board.
 
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Posted: #57
Im willing to bet in the "long run" your numbers will equal out to 52% or 48%   if i were you i would stop now while your at 77% and call it a day, or a month in your case, or at the rate of your picks 2 weeks. Not much for a "LONG" period of time. Try 1000 picks ( maybe with no money, and then track it on wagerline.com and you will see your results. I have tried this and it all will equal out)  If you actually know what your doing instead of following a set of numbers or equations ( that the books use to create a line, based off the LAW OF AVERAGES) you should be able to hit higher then 54%.  
By the way this theory you mentioned does take some hugh rollercoaster swings. My theory on this system, is if the first few games lose, to bet the other way. If the first win, let them ride.

GL however   if you stick with it, it will be nice to see the outcome.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by AChigurh:

Math is for geeks and........... ADVATAGE GAMBLERS retard

 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by AChigurh:

There are much better ways to test the accurace of your system.  Send me a PM and il get you in the right direction

Please show me the light!

 
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Posted: #60

well i hate to disagree but if i have a Line that is 3pts better than the books line, im going to beat them a minimum of 55% of the time.... there is no Law of Averages.... This concept is pretty simple...

i got a Push on Mil +3 and that will be thrown out of the records.

currently 6-4 on the night, with what is final, with 8 more pending. Looks like ill need some help, looking for 3-4 more wins on the evening.

will update tomorrow..

Falcon

 
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Posted: #61

well GST cost me by the hook... 6-6 with 6 pending...

Falcon

 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by tgarfield:



I think I stuffed you in your locker in highschool.



yea, you sound like you're still in H.S. go do your hw kid!




 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by TheThinker:

well i hate to disagree but if i have a Line that is 3pts better than the books line, im going to beat them a minimum of 55% of the time.... there is no Law of Averages.... This concept is pretty simple...

i got a Push on Mil +3 and that will be thrown out of the records.

currently 6-4 on the night, with what is final, with 8 more pending. Looks like ill need some help, looking for 3-4 more wins on the evening.

will update tomorrow..

Falcon




I'm guessing your getting your numbers from averages? Am i correct?   I guarantee that your numbers do not hit over 55%. Your so called simple concept is not bullet proof. It it were everyone would be using that system. Some people get hot, and then they get cold. Its how this game works. The lines are set off a base set of numbers that gives the lines makers an AVERAGE FINAL SCORE. From that number they can add a point or 2, in your case sometimes 3 or more if need be for what ever reason could play into the game. They also take into account any injuries, home court, and where they believe people will be playing. Otherwise the books could care less on so called "precieved" lines. Books do not want to make major moves off their "average final score" lines because well, they are going against the average. Everything works off of averages. Book want an average of %50 on both sides. When the lines lean heavy on one side they move the line, to balance out the average money wagered. Its how you become balanced. They would rather have equal betting on both sides. When you find a line is off by 3 points from your so called lines, it could be for a reason we do not know about.   Im still going to say you should have stoped after the first day and called it a day when you were 5 games ahead. Good luck going 55-45.
 
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Posted: #64

tuff night Falcon better luck.... it sucks when the numbers roll and then you make the big post and they turn on you. stay with your system numbers will go right for ya next time...bol

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by robbypants:

Please show me the light!

I dont know why people bask typos on this site.  It does not happen on any other gambing sites and is just lpain annyoing.  I dont spell check what i write i just write it. And if you are really interest in testing the accuracy of your system then PM me.  If not, save the grammer correction for the fucking lit professors. 

 
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Posted: #66

15-14 (heading into the thursday night games)

giants over 42 (posted yesterday)

hawks Under 199

bulls Under 198

Texas Over 62

busy day, will catch this up fully tomorrow..

Falcon

 
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Posted: #67

izmuny

7-2 on tuesday

7-11-1 on wednesday (drop the push)

1-1 during the day on thursday

pending plays for thursday night, posted above...  nothing really unusual..

Falcon

 
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Posted: #68
hawks under 199


 
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Posted: #69

Best of luck tonight , on the other side on Texas Total , but I 'm not a Football specialist!!On the same side with Giants points.

 
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Posted: #70
utah like money in the bank dinner on the table good luck.
 
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Posted: #71

Mathematical Formula: 18-15 (54.55%)

about where i said it would be, no real surprises... dont follow this if you cant stomach the swings in bankroll... my goal is a modest 55% and this is not the only way that i wager but i will hit 55% using a mathematical formula, over a large number of games..

plays for friday (day games) will be posted soon.

 

Falcon

 
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Posted: #72

54%...I'd take that.....You took some serious heat, thinker....tell these guys "See ya when the smoke clears"!!!

 
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Posted: #73

doesnt matter, i usually dont read the posts, if anyone has a question PM me... the rest is just talk, that i dont pay attention to.

the last 2 days, the TOP play has hit, nash/col Over 5.5, dallas Under 40..

here are the plays for friday, this is the entire college football card for today.. no NHL day games qualified, as none were a half goal off... ill do the NBA and the night NHL games later today..

 

rutgers -3

emich Over 51

buffalo Over 48

colst -3

temple Over 46

alabama -9.5 (top play and buy it down to 9)

illinois +21

colorado +10.5

toledo +8

no ill Over 51

nevada Over 69 (2nd best play)

pitt -1

 

thats 12 more.....

Falcon

 
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Posted: #74

here is 11 more for friday evening...

sj/edm Over 5.5 (this is the only nhl total) that is 1/2 goal off..

clev Over 185

philly Under 198

clippers Over 181

dallas -2.5

dallas Over 202

spurs Over 195

denver -12

mil +5

mil Over 198

sac -4

thats 11 more, for a total of 23 plays for friday....

 

Falcon

 
 
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Posted: #75

looks like (12-10) on friday with another Push on the Milwaukee total....

Mathematical Formula: 30-25 (54.55%) which is about what i suggested it would do.... 

Falcon

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