Luka's been incredible........MVP ???.....Well............

Spurs sure are playing on a high level, I can understand why many like them .............

Yes I was thinking the same thing if Spurs pass OKC then the chances go up Wemby wins MVP.

I think he likely gets it ...............

I dont think they will though. OKC knows the importance of top seed especially  with how the Spurs and Wemby are playing. 

OKC laid a major beat-down on the defensive cupcake Lakers up 44-21 in the first quarter. 

Unfortunately  Luka was injuried though, I wanted to see this with Luka in the game.

I hear same hamstring he has had issue with earlier in the season.

He was shooting terrible had 7 assists  but 6 TO's.

SGA had the same 7 assists with 1 TO.

Colin said OKC shot 70% on Austin R. And 65% on the man himself Luka.

I see a number.of people now after 1 game jumping off the LA bandwagon. 

considering Luka being hurt, he could of bounced back and played better, as could  the Lakers overall have seen this many times as I'm sure many have as well.

Looking back at my PR's my no. 1 team was doing quite well for a good number of years then hit a period of pathetic performance as many here know.

But wait, my no. 1 team did not do as bad as it looks based on alot of the new info I looked into.

2020 my no. 1 team the Bucks, the Freak had over a 37% usage which as I already talked about no team since 1980 has won the title with such high usage.

MJ topped all champions with a 34.1 and a 33.7. And that is MJ greatest player all-time.

And that is also covid which has proven even in the NFL that my info produced lower probabilities in  the 2 covid years.

My no 1 team in 2021, Jazz, and another covid year has the same thing in common as my no. 1 team in 2019, Bucks. As a key group of players they did not win even 1 playoff series before becoming no. 1 in the previous 2 seasons.

In 2023 my no. 1 team was Celtics who were one of the weakest no. 1 teams. and since only 4 teams not defending champs have gone on to win the title since 1980 below a 6 in PR I and below a 53.5 in PR II.

In other words it is low probability such weak teams will win the title.

These are all situations that proven over history teams don't win titles so no real surprise my no. 1 teams could not either.

Other then those teams 2022 Celtics no. 1 made the finals but lost and 2024 Celtics no. 1 won title.

2025 no. 1 won the title, 3 teams did not possess any of those characteristics. 

Hopefully this new info will come in handy when these situations arise in the future but wont be this year.

Although we may be able to count the Pistons because it did apply to teams finish no. 1 in the other conference that is not no. 1 overall.

I haven't looked into a large number of years but the early indication is not good for Pistons.

Can Piston go from not winning 1 series to winning the East ?

Probably not.

Took a good l9ok at the Hornets.

Interesting team for sure.

They have the 6th best pt differential in the league, not 6th in the east but in the league but only an 8 seed. Crazy.

So it does seem they have been playing well over the entire season to be 6th best.

If we look at the Pacers last year who started playing better on Jan 2. Their pt margin over the entire season was only 2.23 good for 12th in the league.

The Maves in 2024 who played better after the trades, pt margin over the entire season was 2.21 good for 14th.

We can clearly see the difference, both Pacers and Mavs did not play well over the entire season.

So why are the Hornets a 8th seed ? If the have been playing well over the entire season ?

One thing is FG% differential is a negative, they have been outshoot in the all-important FG% .

2 pt FG% a negative also. They are better at 3 pt .

So I ran the numbers Shooting Efficiency % .....

50.46 - 50.23 = +.23%

So when we add 2 pt, 3 pt, FT, and TO they do outshoot opps by a very small amount. 

The magic seems to be rebounding. They rank 2cd when compare to the top 10 teams at the break.

53.7% which is a very, very strong rebounding team.

And they fit right in with what I mentiopned before, this season is loaded with very strong rebounding teams.

Maybe something is going on with teams making adjustments or maybe just a coincidence. 

Maybe we have are first clue, strong rebounding team but lacks Shooting Efficiency and with the 6th best pt margin in the league is only the 8th seed  in the east.

6th best in the league not the east. So where would their record rank in the league like 11th or 12th ?

I don't know but not close to 6th.

So strong rebounding without Shooting Efficiency does not produce strong records.

It appears the Hornets started playing better on Feb 22, they won 3 straight big blowout wins and picked up more big wins after Feb 22 but had many close games and losses as well.

Maybe I'll  run their numbers from Feb 22cd till end of season and see the difference. 

PR I they finish 9th based on top 10 teams at the break. Does not really match well  to their 6th place pt margin. 

PR II they do rank 6th which does match well coz PR II rebounding carries more weight.

PR I Shooting Efficiency caries more weight.

Of all the very strong rebounding teams, Rockets, Hornets, Knicks only the Knicks have at least a good playoff quality Shooting Efficiency differential. 

Not championship level but good solid playoff quality.

So maybe it'll be the Knicks pull some surprises.

I saw online that the Hornets started playing better on Jan 3rd. I looked that up.

Prior to the 3rd they were 13-18 and after they are  30-14 after losing to Celtics. That equates to 56 wins.

However , they were only 5-5 in the next 10 games Jan 3rd and on. So not sure why they picked Jan 3rd as a starting point other them possibly they did win those games big but lost much closer games.

If we start after those 10 games then they are 25-9 which equates to a 60 win season. Damn they are playing pretty strong as many certainly are aware of.

I hear alot of talk online about Kon's incredible 3 pt shooting. But everyone time i check the box score he hasn't played that well overall.

Bridges has been very good as has the other player I can't think of at the moment. 

No doubt they will create some buzz come playoff time.

Big, big news, we'll to me anyways. I was doing some spring cleaning and found my 2014 Power Ratings which fell over the back of a drawer and was in behind the drawer . Unreal.

Never thought I'd ever find them.

That leaves only 2007 and 2010 I never ran the numbers for all the teams. I do have the finals though.

Spurs did rank no. 1 in PR I with OKC 2cd and OKC no.1 in PR II with the Spurs 2cd.

The 2 met in conference  finals.

Both teams over 6 in PR I and 53.5 in PR II. With other teams as well.

The Heat were a weak rebounding  team that season but strong shooting efficiency, they finished only 6th in PR I and 2cd in the East at 5.49 under 6.

Pacers no. 1 in East with 5.59 so basically pretty  even. 

Both teams under 6.

But the Heat way better, almost 2% better in shooting efficiency differential while Pacers a good solid rebounding team.

But at the end of the day shooting efficiency differential usually wins out 

When the no. 1 team in the conference that is not no. 1 overall but is over 6 in PR I they make the Finals right at 50% of the time.

This season at the break Pistons were only team over 6 at 6.4.

Celtics without Tatum were 5.7 so very likely they could also move above 6 but may not be no. 1 in East.

In 2014 I check teams rebounding with only 1 team 52% over 51.5% rebounding.

This season we had at least 6 teams which is alot.

Hornets at 53.7% when I checked recently would be 2cd of top 10 teams at the break.

History tells us strong rebounding without shooting efficiency does not do well.

So it'll  be important  to check Hornets shooting  efficiency differential going back to when they started playing much better.

It just seems to me that with a 53.7% rebounding it seems unlikely their shooting efficiency margin  could be substantial as that would put them in very high company to be strong in both rebounding and shooting efficiency at the same time, I just don't see that happening.

I suppose their rebounding could drop off while shooting efficiency  goes up which is typical but how good would they have been prior to dropping off if they are still 2cd best in a group of strong rebounding  teams to start with.

Joker has to be a serious top 3 candidate for MVP since I believe he is leading the league in triple doubles and they have overall the 5th best record in the league and will finish 3rd in the conference.  If he isn’t a serious candidate for MVP then MVP doesn’t mean much imo.

Yes I agree, he should be in the conversation but not really much  chance to win it.

I highly doubt he finishes 1st or 2cd in the voting.

That is how the voters are most likely to vote based on past MVP votes.

I ran the numbers for Hornets from Jan 22 till now only.

Shooting Efficiency differential  did improve pretty  good.

Was like .23%

Now is 1.52%

Based on the top 10 teams at the break that ranks 9th. Just say'in. 

I did not check rebounding yet but likely they regressed at least some. Coz I need to  check the AI for accuracy so didn't bother.

That is a good solid playoff team but not championship caliber.

I ask AI for the stats so I am going to double check them.

Funny story about the AI, AI would not give me what I ask for, kept beating around the bush.

So eventually  I said, I did not ask for that give me what I ask for.

Son of a gun they did. So AI knew all-along what I was asking for. Damn that is just like a human, frigg'in crazy.

Program by a human to be like a human I quess.

You guys ever run into that where a person answers every question but the one you ask ?

Frustrating............

Here's some info on my PR I

Since 2011 but missing 2010.

12 of 15 years the team won the title was top 4 in PR I.

So you don't want to back a Team 5th or below.

Let's look at the 3 teams were 5th or below.

2011 Mavs 7th but needed Lebron to complete choke to win the title. He didn't want the ball, could not do anything.

So do you want to count on the opp's best player choking to win ?

2020 Lakers 6th but played 1st year of covid. Players could opt out, no fans in the seats and games were played at a neutral site .

And last but not least or really is least, 2023 Nuggets 5th.

The weakest group of playoff  teams.

To show you how weak this season was Nuggets at 5th rated 3.69.

2011 Mavs at 7th rated 5.32 much better then Nuggets at 5th.

2020 LA at 6th rated 5.32

Teams that could not make the Finals were stronger then the Nuggets.

2021 2cd year of covid Bucks won the title finished 4th rated 6.11.

Suns lost to Bucks they were 6th rated 5.56

76ers finished 3rd in the East in 2012 , 3rd in the weaker overall conference could not sniff the finals rated 3.79 slightly better then the Champions.

Are those the things you want to count on to win the title backing these lower rated teams thinking you are getting value on the price ?

I get the top 4 out quick after the season. I may not have all the teams but I can fill those in later.

Interesting info here guys.

I looked up the advanced meterics and counted how many times Lebron finished no. 1 in a given year in any advanced metric.

I got the idea off a video I watched.

I didn't count usage only advanced stats that have to do with production. 

Lebron finished 1st in the league  43 times, wow that seems like alot. 

Can MJ beat that, I thought might be difficult.

He did not beat it, he crushed it.

61 times MJ finished no. 1. If we counted usage his margin would be even higher.

And people want to look at triple doubles as so important. Yea Lebron was like a jack of all trades but the problem with that thinking he was a master of none. 

Triple doubles are deceptive simply because all 3 of those areas, scoring 10 pts, getting 10 rebs or 10 assists are not creating equal.

The degree of difficulty is different  in each area so that stat automatically favors rebounders and assist people not great scorers.

For example you can find games where MJ in finals scored 42 pts had 8 rebounds and 8 assist.

While Lebron scored 16 pts had 12 rebounds and 11 assist.

Now are you going to argue Lebrons performance is better because he got to 10 in each area ?

That is so damn silly. 

And I did not even need to mention Lebron shot like 42% to MJ 54%.

Or MJ did that in a win while Lebron did it in a loss.

Context matters people.

But the triple double is impressive?

That is so much nonsense, the context about how things are accomplished matters.

To score 10 pts is easy for any good NBA player.

I looked up the joker, 42 finishes as no. 1 in any one of the advanced meterics in 11 seasons.

Lebron got his last no. 1 finish after 17 years so it took him 17 years to get to 43 took jokic 11 to get to 42.

Lebron got to 42 after 15 years.

So if we eliminate those final 2 no. 1 finishes by Lebron he did have 41 no. 1 in the league finishes in 10 season or average of 4.1 per year at his peak.

MJ had 61 in 13 years or average of 4.7 per year.

MJ sustained his peak years longer however he did take some time off to play baseball.

I been looking into a little better the difference  in the eras with today's spread the court with 3 pt shooters. 

And what is see for one thing is TO rates are lower especially  for players who pass alot and get assists.

Passing creates higher TO rates when we look back at all the players.

Shooting guards who pass less have lower TO rates.

But Jordan had a low TO rate for his era. One of the lowest I've found based  on his passing.

And he drove the lane when things were pack in much tighter then today.

For example SGA has I think this year a 8.5 % TO rate as a shooting guard, MJ was 9.3 over his career with the Bulls and 9.6 overall.

When you consider the era MJ is more impressive. 

That is how Jokic is getting all these triple doubles, open courts much easier to pass and get assists with lower TO rates and he can basically play point  guard at the center position  from down low only because the 3 pt shooters spread the court so much.

There is not much possibility he does that back in the 80's or 90's. 

Joker all the way!

Wemby needs to play 1 more game and Luka cant win MVP because he falls 1 game under lol

I heard somewhere Luka gets to 65 games under some exception or whatever it was. But not sure if that was hearsay or whatever but I did hear something about it.

Luka not winning the MVP anyway.

Having triple double I agree could have some degree do with the spacing of the game now in the assist category but you can’t discount the basketball smart and skill set of Joker’s triple double or else most of the big man in the league wouldn’t have issue night in and night out doing what’s he’s doing for years now.  Have you watch how fast Joker advances the ball after the other team scores when he has teammate already 3/4 way to basket or his no look dead accurate pass to an open man ready to shoot when he attracts the double team.  Those are basketball IQ and skill a lot of big man in the league doesn’t have.

Yes Joker is a great player regardless of era  but my only point is he could not get these triple doubles back in the 80's and 90's the same way he is doing it now..................

And his TO rate would be higher, I am only putting some perspective on how he is putting up these seemingly incredible stats.

He is the best player today at least offensively.

He is a beast.

Wemby finished 1st in an advanced stat 4 times this season. 

Defensive rebounds 

Block %

Defensive WinShares

Defensive  Box Plus/minus

All Defensive stats.

MJ in his 13 years with Bulls finished 1st and ave of 4.7 times per year.

Joker is around 3.9

Lebron about 4

The thing with Wemby is his offense is not the best. He should continue improving, in the next couple of years we'll  see how he develops. 

ESPN loves to show his 3 pt shooting but the reality is , he is a below average 3 pt shooter.

League average is 36% last I recently checked  Wemby was at 33.9% last I checked recently.

Don't let ESPN create an illusion does not exist as they love doing this kind of stuff.

He is not a very good playmaker or passer, he is no Joker for sure.

Why they have him out there taking 3's when he could be underneath grabing more off rebounds and scoring around the basket.

I understand he brings the big man out to open up the underneath area but at a price.

I think you put a smaller player on him like a 6'6" player who could out quick him on the 3 pt line and just let him chuck them up .

If he drives then bring big man help if he can get past a decent defender.

85 Lakers had 1537 TO's.

83 76ers 1627

86 Celtics 1360

25 Nuggers have 1057 damn near 50% less TO's then some years back in 80's.

There is a high correlation to more assists equals more TO's.

This is also why teams today have higher shooting efficiency margins today because of volume 3's and fewer TO since I put TO into shooting  efficiency 

OKC PR I is 10.51

Spurs all season 7.83

But after the all-star break is 11.68

But that is a much smaller sample of games.

If we averaged those 2 put the Spurs at around 10.

Improving in the 2cd half is not always a good indicator.

It was past 2 years but Mavs made trades then played better in 24 that is understandable. 

Pacers played better since Jan 2cd not sure why maybe players back from injuries. Or just getting lucky with last second made shots as they had a number of those in playoffs.

Then on top of that having Cavs players injuried. A few players not just 1.

Will we get this 3 straight years with teams playing stronger at some point during the season  continuing that in playoffs ??

Kind of makes it tough to make a call with the Spurs.

But it would appear Spurs should be about as good as OKC .