Luka's been incredible........MVP ???.....Well............

Hey people we are into march madness with the NBA playoffs just around the corner.

I've  been seeing alot of chatter online and elsewhere on Luka not being mentioned much for the MVP.

On the surface he has looked incredible, no doubt. But when we dive in deeper things look quite a bit different. 

I have been looking into the advanced meterics more and more trying to learn what they measure, how they measure things and who benefits. 

The formulas  are complicated, I've seen websites try breaking them down and they with more advanced math then I have can't do it with everything in formula.

But I have enough of an idea to make much better use of those meterics.

First,  Player Efficiency Rating (PER) favors volume scorers like Luka and big men who can score and rebound since points scored contribute the most and rebounds i think contribute the 2cd most with assists the 3rd most. 

And all the other factors like steals, blocks, turnovers, personal fouls add to it or subtract from it. The biggest negative is missed shots i think the best i understand  it.

So with these things in mind let's take a deeper look into Luka's incredible season.

Usage matters, usage is the % of poosesions a players actions end that possession be it shot attempts, FT att , turnover or offensive foul. 

Luka has a ridiculous  high usage, well of course he will score many points. When I ran these numbers his usage was 37.9%. But today it is 38.1%.

To understand this, no team has won the title since 1980 with the best player in PER having a usage over 34.1.

And that is the only player over 34 being MJ in 1998 his last title run. MJ also has a 33.7 which are the 2 highest I've seen.

Many players have tried, MJ, Kobe and others and nobody has won the title with such high usage over 35%.

Now, to see a players all-around game I found we can use the ratio of usage to PER, this will tell us all the little things a player has done on top of just scoring since scoring contributes the most to PER.

LUKA 28.1 PER and 37.9 usage. Is PER is 74.1% of his usage. That is not good.

SGA 31.4 PER and usage 33.5.......93.73% that is all-time great for shooting gaurd to be over 90%.

MJ did it, Kobe never.  

To put this in perspective only 3 teams have won the title with a player top 5 in minutes played and has highest PER being under 80%.

Those 3 were MJ once in 1998 his last title, Kobe 2009, and Curry 2022. What these players have in common is they had all won multiple titles before doing it below 80%.

And PER does a poor job measuring defense so we could give both Kobe and MJ extra points for very strong defense. 

The Warriors in 2022 had one of if not the best team defense something far lacking on this Lakers team and with Luka.

Wemby is MVP

Now that we have these ideas let's measure  the top MVP candidates. Remember MCP is not the best player but player means more to his team.

So I will measure the difference between each player and that teams 2cd best player in each meterics this should give us an idea of who is the more important  player to his team.

We'll use total win shares, win shares per 48 minutes and vorp. Now we could use other metrics the results would be similar so I am not cherry picking stats to support any player based on bias.

Win shares and vorp are cumulative, meaning the more games you play and more minutes played per game they continue adf8ng up.

Where-as win shares per 48 minutesis based on every 48 minutes you are on the  court.

Both ways have value when used correctly.

Player .....win  sh/48....... winshares .......Vorp

Luka ........... .204..................9.................6.1

2cd best.....   .160 ....             5.2.               2.2

Difference...     .044.                3.8.                3.9

SGA ......      .333 .......          13.7 .....        7

2cd best ...... .216...       ....    8 ...............2.6

Difference.      .220.               5.7............4.4

SGA is contributing far more for his team over his wcd best player, it is not close.

And to put this in greater perspective SGa has has player 2 fewer games then his 2cd best player while Luka has player 14 games more then the 2cd best in total win shares and 9 more games then the 2cd best in Vorp which remember games played matters as they are cumulative. 

SGA contributes so much more to his team then Luka does, there is no question about this and his all-around game is masterfully over 90% ratio od PER to usage with Luka being not good at all below 75%

This is why when we use win shares per 48 minutes meaning not cumulative, not based on games played SGA crushes Luka being so much more important  to his team.

I'll  breakdown Wemby and Joker later.

MVP should be someone who does the most with the least amount of help... It's a consistent metric one can measure YoY to determine the valuability of that player to that team...

Luka not only leads the league in scoring, he is the only MVP candidate that has two teammates that avg 20 PPG (Lebron and Reaves)... clearly he has more help than anyone

Jokic has Murrary who avg 25ppg

Shai, Brown, Cade are all top scorers whose 2nd highest scoring teammate is like 17 ppg... 

Brown and Cade have played with teammates this year that would be bench players for more than half the league... 

@theclaw

 great read, thanks claw 

Wenby's been very good no doubt ............

Yep ...............

Luka, Wemby and SGA. One of these 3 to win it.

Let's see the Joker and Wemby.

Player ....winsh/48 .....winsh..........vorp

Joker ......  .316 .......   12.8 ............ 8

2cd best ...   .168 .....   8.2 ...........    3.5

Difference.       .148 ...... 4.6 ........     4.5

SGA has a larger difference  in 2 of the 3 and only loses by .1

Wemby  ......   .235 ........  8 .........      4.8

2cd best .......    .141 .....  5.7 ........  2.2

Difference........  .094 ....   2.3 .....  2.6

So after looking at all 4 players SGA is the clear winner with Joker 2cd and Wenby and Luka about even .

Luka won 2 of 3 but because of games played big advantage which the 2 Luka won have to do with games played not actual efficiency. 

Efficiency Wemby wins easily in win shares per 48 minutes.

Games played does matter , how can you be a big contributor to your team if you are not playing in games  but your 2cd best player is, then wouldn't  he be a bigger part of overall contribution?

Now let's consider this ............

Joker PER 32.6 and usage 30.8% wow over 100%. 

Wemby PER 28.3 and usage 31.8% is 89%

We have to consider that big men benefit the most with ratio of PER TO usage. Simply because points contribute the most to PER and rebounds the 2cd most so a big man that can score and rebound automatically has a advantage other players don't.

Usage is mainly about scoring pts so the ratio tells us all about the other things a player does or does not do.

An 89% for a big man is nothing to write home about.

Joker over 100% is greatness staring at you. Wrmby has a ways to go to reach this level.

But Wemby 89% is enough for Spurs to win the title I'll give you that but not enough to win the MVP.

It should be allllllll.....SGA.

For sure ............

I don't see Joker getting it even though a case could be made but I doubt voters will vote him.

Now let's us look at one more thing it this will rock you to your core, it did me anyway.

Jaylen Brown, great player ? Well I myself never consider him a great player but he is a very good all-around player.... I thought anyway.

Let's use the same stats, now keep in mind the 4 others players and this will blow you away.

Win shares per 48 minutes.... 3rd of the 5 players with the most average minutes per game.

Did you catch that, only 3rd of 5 players.

Total win shares 3rd again.

Vorp, so of a gun 3rd again.

Brown PER 22.3 now Browns usage a ridiculous high 36%.

Let that sink in when you look at the other 4 players.

That is a 61.9% ratio. I have not found another player this low yet.

That is a ridiculous low PER based on such a very high usage.

Back the Nuggets to win the title ?

I know people like to back proven winners to win the title and I see a goid number like the Nuggets.

I'll be back to tell you why you don't want to back this team to win the title.

And I have a number of new things coming for the playoffs some pretty cool stuff like when it may be the right long term winner to back the worst team of the 4 teams to make the conference  title game to win the series and advance to the finals.

Along with other pretty cool stuff like when you might want to not back the best player on the winning team to win NBA Finals MVP.

Taking a look at the Noggets title run in 2023.

The Nuggets were one of the teams I'd watch every year to see if they could up their game to produce a season with common denominators of past champs but they never did and have not done this year at least at the all-star break .

Yea the Nuggets are proven winners and many feel comfortable backing proven winners.

2023 was the weakest group of playoff teams at least going back to 1997 and very likely going back far more years.

Nuggets ranked 5th in PR I in 2023.

First let's establish some standards. About 80% of teams win the title are 6 or better in Power Rating  I and 53.5 in PR II.

In 2023 no team was  6 or better and no team was 53.5 or better and that is the only season this has happened.

If we just look at the conference  title games, only 1 season saw none of the 4 teams finished 53.5 or better but 2 teams finished 6 or better.

No season saw of the  4 teams in conference finals not 6 or better except 2023.

The ave PR I of the Nuggets 4 teams they beat to winning the title was 2.34, easily the worst group of teams any champion has beaten.

To put that in perspective if we look at this season at the break a 2.34 would rank 10th.

Last year it  rank 11th in 2024 it rank 10th.

So Nuggets played on average about a 10th placed team.

And as of the break they have not produced the common denominators of past champs.

The ranked 7th in PR I with a 4.73, well under 6.

And they ranked 9th in PR II with a 51.4.

Highly, highly unlikely this team wins the title. The probabilities so low it is not worth the any play on them despite having the Best player in Joker and being a proven winner.

The toughest schedule belongs to 1997 Bulls 7.33 in PR I.

Last year be 4th in 2024 would also be 2cd.

To put that in perspective a 7.33 ranks 2cd best this year at the break. They played the 2cd best team on average in every game to win the title.

1998 Bulls played the 3rd toughest 6.99.

2007 Celtics played the 2cd toughest 7.25

The ave of all champions since 1997 is 5.69.

Interesting  if we look at Lebron 10 trips to finals very likely played the easiest opps getting there.

These are conference finals  opps.

2012 beat C's 3.52

2013 Pacers 4.95

2015 Hawks 4.93

2016 Rapators 3.98

2017 Celtics 2.48

2018 Celtics 3.52

And most of these teams were the best in the East according to PR I. So those were the best teams LeBron team needed to beat.

2011 was the only season he played a strong team in Bills 7.82, the problem though is D Rose was injuried.

2020, forget about it. Played in covid when players could opt out and needed to adjust to the new situation 

LA beat 4 teams ave 3.96 the 2cd weakest group of teams any champion has beaten .

I don't have the 2 other years 2007 and 2014. Lost the paperwork for 2014 and did not run the numbers for 2007 for some reason.

So of the 8 trips to finals Lebron beat 5 teams under a 4 PR I and 2 other teams under a 5 PR I  and the only team they beat in conference finals over a 6 rating which is consistent with past champs the best player was injuried.

Now could Lebron have beaten better teams, championship quality teams ? Yes no doubt he could of but he did not. He may not of as well in all of those 8 seasons he could of not made the finals a couple of times we just don't know.

Lebron is no doubt a great player we can't take away what he accomplished but what I think is very important  to at least consider is the CONTEXT of how he accomplished those things.

The same goes for Magic with 8 trips to finals in the 10 years of the 80's. He also played in a weak Western conference.  Not as weak as Lebron but weaker then normal no doubt.

So if we take an honest look at this, playing weaker opps correlates with more trips to the finals.

Should read 2008 Celtics with the 2cd toughest 4 opps on their way to winning the title.

I was curious so I went back to 1980 and looked at how many teams won the title below both a PR I rating of 6 and a PR II rating of 53.5.

There were 2 teams in the 80's

2 teams in the 90's

1 team in the 2000's

2 teams in the 2010's

And 1 team thus far in the 2020's which is the Nuggets

So we have a total of 8 teams in 46 years.

But 4 of these 8 have 1 thing in common, they were defending champs.

Most all defending champs regress the following year and rate lower.

And being champs they know how to win, what it takes to win.

They only defending champs to repear that  improved  in both PR I and PRII was 1992 Bulls.

2013 Heat did improve in PR I but declined in PR II.

That leaves us with 4 teams in 46 years that won the title under 6 and 53.5.

2010 Lakers were one such defending champ but they needed to beat at least 2 teams over a 6 rating and 1 over 53.5.

The ave of 4 teams they beat was 5.74 which is higher then the ave of all champs (5.69) in the 27 years I looked into.

2011 Mavs are another such under 6 and 53.5 but not defending champs they beat an ave of 6.59, well above the ave of all champs

Compare that to the Nuggets 2.34 ave of their 4 opps.

We could even make a case that the 2011 Mavs only won coz Bron choked which then leaves us with 3 teams in 46 years.

I saw a video with D Wade talking about Bron, how they were trying to get Bron going but could not.

At the break there were 4 teams under both 6 and 53.5.

Twolves, Cavs, Nuggets and LA.

Maybe some will think Harden will rescue the Cavs, I doubt it very much. Harden is past his prime, he is not the same offensive player and he doesn't play much defense.

He will add some offense over what Garland did but he will also give back some on defense. Cavs maybe gain some but not all that much to make them any serious title c9ntender or even winning the East, I don't see it happening

Let's look at Spurs at the break.

4th in PR I.

6TH in PR II.

6th in shooting efficiency differential 

5th in rebounding.

Don't look like a very strong team.

However they are no doubt the biggest improvers after the break, they are steamrolling teams.

Both their pt margin and FG% margin have improved quite a bit.

So I'll run their numbers after the break along with season long .

OKC was no. 1 in PR I but only no. 4 In PR II

after being no. 1 in both last season.

However they were weak in rebounding and both bigs missed a decent number of games so with both back they should be OK.

If they can stay healthy, they will definitely  need both VS Spurs if the happen to meet.

OKC did have the best shooting efficiency  margin since middle 70's when they tracked the stats to figure the meteric.

They slightly were ahead of the 2017 Warriors which was the first year they added KD.

The Pistons were most most balanced team.

2cd in PR I

2cd in PR II

3rd on shooting efficiency margin 

3rd in rebounding

They are 3rd or better in each area the only team to do this 

I was set to make a play on Pistons winning the East but can they go from having a key 2 or 3  players who have not won a single playoff series in the past 2 years to making the finals ?

And now with Cade out.

I looked in to his situation they say nba players do return in 4 to 6 weeks but depending on the severity and how he responds to treatment.

6 weeks means he'll  be back before the start of the 2cd round. 4 weeks back in the first round.

I saw odds to win east at +600.

Are the Hornets legit? Well, I did see when they were the 9th seed they did have the 6th best pt margin in the league, not in the east but in the league.

I doubt that has ever happened  before if it has it'd certainly  be a rare feat.

But looking at their FG% margin, not good.

They have been out-shot in both overall FG% and 2 pt FG% but are a very strong rebounding team over 53% .

I'll have to run the numbers but at this point I kind of doubt they are legit strong team.

Their SRS drops way down after factoring  in SOS.

Maybe they can beat Pistons but I would not back them myself.

Rockets will ba a very interesting  team  this coming playoffs.

Not for the controversy they are going through.

But there is so.ething going on this year that I have not ever seen before.

I am wondering if teams are making some adjustments for this era spreading the court with 3 pt shooting or maybe just a coincidence. 

I talked about this very thing in the NFL with winning  teams seemly losing the QB Passer Rating battle at a much higher rate then normal.

Maybe defenses were adjusting .

And Seahawks finished no 1 in PR I and were one of if not the lowest  ranked no. 1 team ever.

Generally those low ranked teams don't win the SB but Seahawks did.

They were low ranked coz no team was very good at winning the QBPR battle which carries the most weight in PR I.

Now we are seeing many very strong rebounding teams this season, we'll above the average.

Last year there were 2 teams over 51.5% rebs this year there are 6 or 7 and I haven't  looked into all the teams yet.

Only 1 team over 52% but 4 this year and maybe more.

The Rockets at the break ranked no. 1 in PR II where res carry more weight. I have never seen a team rank no. 1 in PR II be so weak in shooting efficiency margin before.

As a general rule rebs without shooting efficiency  don't win titles.

But being no. 1 in either PR has proven to surprise peo0le based on expectations.

Will this be a similar situation to QBPR in the NFL ?

I don't think Rockets win the title or make the Finals however I do think that if they finish the season no. 1 and they may not but if they do I would not be surprised  to see them pull some upsets. I can see this coming in the first round beating the red hot Lakers if that is the matchup and surpring how tough they could play in the 2cd round.

This will be a team and series I'll be watch8ng closely come playoff time.

Rockets have regressed about .5% in rebounding after the break but have improved some in FG% margin last i looked.

I looked at Luka and Wemby.

Wemby's PER to usage is now up to 91%,  that's a 2% improvement. 

Luka has improved slightly many .5 or .6 %,  but still below 75%.

Wemby now going over 90% even though it may seem not much, historically  it is but he needs to be up at close to or over 93% to put in the same level as great players having strong years.

It does appear Spurs and OKC will be an all-time classic down to the wire game 7 series .

I think OKC pulls out the win at this point. 

@theclaw

 Thanks love the info

@theclaw

 Nice write up...I do like Spurs over OKC....

Luka is +1600 even if OKC loses tonight vs Lakers I don’t think odds move past +1000. Joker is a better offensive weapon imo and Wemby/SGA play defense. 

If Spurs pass OKC (own tiebreaker) for #1 seed I could see Wemby winning it. Can OKC lose a couple games? Tough ask…