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Posted: #26
I'll post my thoughts on some other games just to see if they hit.

I'd take the Pistons ML over the Warriors.  Situationally, GSW is coming off a game they probably should have lost.  I say they should have lost not because Utah outplayed them, however only because they put up around 90 points on Utah.  Typically when they play Utah they put up 90 points and lose.  The Pistons have been ahead against almost every team they've played only to blow the lead.  I'm not saying things will be different tonight but this is the NBA and you have to combine situational plays with facts.

I don't have any leans for the other games.  This day should be interesting as I took nothing but dogs today including Detroit in the NFL.
 
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Posted: #27
Posted Record: 7-9 (-0.56 units)

Leaning on the Bobcats if they get more points.
 
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Posted: #28
Good luck this year fade, this should be a good experience for you tracking everything all year
 
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Posted: #29
I appreciate everyone's responses.

Leaning on Bobcats but I don't think its enough points, Raptors, Orlando, Denver ML, and Celtics.  I'm definitely not playing Orlando -9 because I don't like taking teams by that many points.

If my leans hit though it sets up good situational plays.  If Chicago and GSW lose then they are both situational plays in their next game.  Its too bad they're playing each other but considering how GSW is on the road and how the Bulls can put up points, then the Bulls should cover a -5 .  If the Mavericks lose, then they likely beat a Memphis team that will probably beat the Suns tonight (not sure if Memphis will cover against the Suns).  Lastly, if I had to write an NBA script, Boston wins its next 2 games and loses at least 3 of the next 8 games after that.
 
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Posted: #30
Well good thing I didn't place any action yesterday.  The only quality bet that I would take in retrospect is the Memphis Grizzlies at home.  Everything else was too close down the wire or teams I don't back on the road.

Tomorrow, Detroit +10.5 looks like a nice quality play.  This team has had some meltdowns in the fourth but this should be a slow paced game that has less potential for meltdowns (unless you're the Celtics).  Portland is coming off of an embarrassing loss but last year they played Detroit 2 times, both times after losses, and never won by more than 6.

An interesting look also goes to the Cavs @ the Nets.  You've got two undervalued teams that are among the worst the third quarter teams in the league.  Currently the line is at -2.5 and I'm guessing people are pounding the Cavs given their recent wins and the Nets recent losses.  Its definitely not a bad play but once the line goes to 2 or maybe even 1.5 I will swoop in on the Nets.

Lastly, if I can get 5.5 or 6, then I will probably take the Knicks ATS against the Bucks.
 
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Posted: #31
Posted Record: 7-9 (-0.56 units)

Detroit +10.5 (-110)
Denver -1.5 (-110)
Knicks +6 (-110)

I chose Denver because its early in the season and its possible Collison is still adapting to the system.  I don't like fading the Pacers at home but I'm gonna try to sneak in a public play.  Public money is still green.

I chose the Knicks because I think they're currently the better team.  They have the more defensive PG and we can trade buckets at the PF and C position.
 
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Posted: #32
Posted Record: 7-12 (-3.56 units)

Portland Trailblazers ML (+165)
Celtics/Grizzlies Under 196.5 (-110)
 
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Posted: #33
Posted Record: 7-14 (-5.56 units)

6 straight blowout losses of 12+ points.  The perfect fade.  Missed dog day afternoon yesterday because I was timid and missed a few days before that because I was out of town with no internet.

New Jersey Nets +2 AND Under 191.5 (+260)

At least this one shouldn't be a blowout loss.  The most I could see the Nets losing by is about 8 (95-87 LAC).  Hopefully though, the final score is about 95-90 or 93-90.
 
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Posted: #34
Like the "Under" too.  GL tonight.
 
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Posted: #35
rough start to the season
 
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Posted: #36
Posted Record: 7-15 (-6.56 units)

206 points in a Nets/Clippers game.  I'm just going to stay away from over/unders with the Clippers.
 
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Posted: #37
Toronto Raptors -1 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks -2 (-110)

Trying to catch some of that injured point guard money.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by dnt_fade_me_bro:

Toronto Raptors -1 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks -2 (-110)

Trying to catch some of that injured point guard money. 

 
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Posted: #39
Posted Record: 8-16 (-6.65 units)

Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110)
 
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Posted: #40
Posted Record: 8-17 (-7.65 units)

Detroit Pistons -5 (-110)

This is another typical pick by me.  If I really cared about profit at this point I'd probably fade this pick.
 
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Posted: #41
New Orleans -5.5 and Under 197 (+250)

Ok, this line is a little sharp.  But I really think New Orleans will hold this team to 90 points.  That means the final can be up to 107-89.
 
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Posted: #42
Posted Record: 8-18-1 (-8.65 units)

Detroit Pistons +10 (-120)
Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110)

Taking the Pacers tonight has nothing to do with them beating Miami.  Taking the Pistons because Dallas rarely covers this spread.
 
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Posted: #43
Posted Record: 10-18-1 (-6.91 units)

New Jersey Nets +11.5 (-110)
Orlando Magic -4 (-120)
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Posted Record: 12-18-1 (-5.16 units)

I'm taking the day off tomorrow.  Only play is the NFL Cincy +9.
 
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Posted: #46
Keep plugging away, fade... you'll get back on the positive side soon enough
 
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Posted: #47
Thanks kapono.

Posted Record: 12-18-1 (-5.16 units)

Toronto Raptors +10 (-105)
Charlotte Bobcats -4 (-105)

I'd also like to take the Pacers as home dogs but they haven't faired too well against playoff teams at home SU.
 
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Posted: #48
Posted Record: 14-18-1 (-3.26 units)

Whew.  Kinda had to sweat out those last few minutes against Boston.  Usually I feel good when the double digit favorite Boston Celtics have a 15 point lead at the end of the third but they had either a 19 or 20 point lead this time.  Anyway, a win is a win.


 
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Posted: #49
Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
New Jersey Nets +2 (-110)

Ok, so Dallas is playing their 4th game in 5 days and this is their first back to back of the season.  Looking back to last year they only played 4 games in 5 days twice if my eyes serve me correct.  One game was a 16 point loss against the Cavs at Cleveland and the other was a 7 point win against the Heat in Dallas.  Oh the irony!  Anyway, taking Dallas at home against small spreads isn't the worst thing you could do.  This all boils down to fading the Heat again.  I have more technical reasons but no one cares anyway so lets just leave it at that.  The under is probably the better play but as you can see I am a biased gambler.

Anyway, on the other side the 76'ers are playing their 4th game in 5 days to a rested Nets team.  Its not worth it to me to take the ML and this game could be decided by the final possession.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Posted Record: 15-19-1 (-3.35 units)

Well the Nets put an end to that streak.  I'm not sure if they've had a 4th quarter meltdown like that all year.  I didn't watch the Miami game because I didn't think I'd see anything new.
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