Knicks@Kings - There is only one side to pick in this game, you make it and don't look back. WRITEUP

@wizard - thanks for that. This is my best year on covers posting and it's almost coming too easy at times in the NBA. I pretty much was relaxed this whole game knowing no matter what the kings did, they couldn't win it.

It was like game 7 in the finals last year. I had a debate with Bator saying the spurs had a shot (which I never should have said) and Bator said the result was already almost predetermined for a heat win.

The problem? That game had a ML of Heat -260 I believe and had little value except in a parlay.

He ended up being right though. The spurs played a great game but nothing they could do could make them win.

And for this game, I felt the exact same way after I wrote it up and thought about it through the day. There was no way the kings were going to beat the Knicks last night. I would have bet them 100 out of 100 times.

Of course with me saying this, hindsight is 20/20 but as you saw I told the posters here I wasn't worried even when the lead was on the verge of disappearing completely. A jr smith 3, and Amare layup and the lead went right back to 7. Game over.

The sweetest part? The spread was effectively a ML so there was TONS of value on this game as opposed to game 7.

This is what I mean when I say turning "Shi+ To Gold" .

The bottom feeders were out on the court last night and the books didn't know what to do with that line. It went from -1 Kings to -2.5 Knicks.

Do we see such major corrections in the NFL? Almost never (without an injury). 

Why? Those are sharp lines. The sharpest actually and the biggest moneymaker for the books. 

The books simply can't put out sharp lines every night for every team and for the Knicks, the lines are like a roller coaster. That means they released a poor line.

So we slam it.

This doesn't happen with the good teams on TNT for the most part (see pacers heat +1.5 and the pacers win by one).

I understand you want to manage your own bankroll. If it's taken hits lately, make them your own plays and get back up on your feet on your own terms.

As I said in the other thread, massive appreciation. The amount of money added to my bankroll on your last four or five posts is ridiculous! Thank you!

Quick question, and I am sure this has been asked before. Do you cap any other sports? I would love to be able to read posts after the season is over, despite that there is still a ways to go of course.

Cheers brotha!

Yes, cap the NFL with particular attention on the Jets and Giants (again, keeping with the "cap the Shi+ teams" theme.)

Ironically over the long term, bringing in Phil Jackson will make the Knicks better as will all that cap space in 2015.

This will make the Knicks harder to cap, again, in future years. The better teams have sharper lines and don't have the urgency to win as often (an absolute key to capping when you deal with the bottom feeders). Look at the nets. I capped them three times this year and they have become more and more unpredictable as the season had worn on. Three straight OT games? Please. Who wants to deal with that? So I gravitate away from them and towards the Knicks and other awful franchises in 2014 like the kings and lakers.

The good news is next year will not be a fantastic year either for the Knicks (better than this one though) so there is a lot more money to be made.

Nice write up, Scal. You know I was backing you the whole way but the 3 star rating worried me so I didn't go big. Wish you had given it your 5 star rating but I know it's hard with the Knicks. Still, 300 is 300 and I shouldn't complain. I'm still waiting for the Warrior's line (I think Lee might not play, hence the delay). The players are now claiming that they are backing the coach and the coach is hinting that Scal was some kind of mole who disagreed with him and made those disagreements public. From your experience, do all these distractions and the 5 days off make this dubs game tougher to cap?

@fiat

Zero in on two or three teams, cap those games consistently every night, even if you don't bet them, then what for great situational spots involving those teams and unload on them. 

Don't look over the lines and say "oh that looks like a good one" or "hey look at all the line movement on that one!" if it involves a team you do not bet often or even know about. 

You will say those things every night. The books know this. And every night they claw a 10% vig from every winner and take the whole loss from every loser.

That is what you are up against. That is tough to beat.

Focus can counter that and make capping a profitable venture.

Last night I had the exact same feeling about the Nets, precisely about their OT games. I laid off of it (it was the right side I would have been on in Charlotte) and felt good about it. There was no clear vision what so ever.

Good to hear your around for the NFL. I explained this more over there but reading your posts is like a crystal ball that shows me the future. It's wild man. I just wish I could reciprocate in the same fashion. At some point I plan to 

I completely understand that and have a somewhat similar approach. I call it "script spotting" for lack of better terms. Meaning that I can look at a game like a Hollywood movie, see the script, how it will play out, and bet the right side or total. I do this mostly with the Blackhawks as they are the team that I follow most. It has been highly successful this season too. 

I guess I could hone it down to a couple teams but sometimes I can look at a game and simply see it. So I look over everything once, if I can't read the script on anything, there are no plays that day. Adding information from others like yourself gives me a different lens to see things. Multiple perspectives are a phenomenal tool for betting sports.

Because of that mentality, I am most apt as a second half player. Half the script has already been shown.

Of course this is metaphorical but you catch my drift. 

Information is power and foresight is the precursor to that power!

The only 5 star game this year was Knicks@nets. Nothing will top that spot! Stars are for Jailbait because he asked otherwise, trust the write up if you like it and your own cap of the game. The max I will ever give is 4 stars till the end of the season.

I can't believe a team with this much talent is worrying about Brian Scalabrine, an assistant coach. The nets did the same exact thing with Lawrence Frank, and coincidentally, immediately lost by 30 to the Knicks at home in that very same 5 star game above in the game after his reassignment.

I can't, in recent memory, remember headlines on Espn.com regarding assistant coaching dismissals or reassignments. It is utterly preposterous and does add to the inner turmoil the team is already experiencing. And ultimately, as you asked, it makes them harder to cap, especially when you want to put your money on them instead of fading them.

If you end up having a play on grizzlies@dubs when you have a line, create a thread or drop it here.

You can reciprocate! It just takes time and experience.

Malcolm Gladwell estimates any expert in any field needs 10,000 of practice. I have WAY more than that capping games, literally doing it in grammar school, and the NBA was always my favorite to cap. And soon all of us will have that experience as time passes. But it needs to be practice and experience with focus. Otherwise we are just spinning our wheels...

All good stuff

Much Appreciated!

I can reciprocate it, but not nearly in the manner in which you do. If I place a strong wager on a game, it's because of a knowing and what I see. Articulating that is rather difficult (as it is not traditional means) and despite it winning more often than it loses, saying you can "see the result" is a bogus explanation to the public. So while I can give certain winners on games, there is no writeup to explain the methodology. At least not the same way you do. That is what I meant my reciprocation.

I do appreciate your time though. Quality stuff right there my friend 

I will drop you a heads up. I actually took a few years off from Covers as I owned my own restaurant and didn't have time for sports betting. I am now just getting back into it (I come from the Wagerline days) and will most likely post a thread from time to time as I ease my way back into things. I definitely should on the Hawks at minimum.

I very much understand your sentiments towards second halves and quite often, if you wait until the second half to wager, you completely missed the bus on an easy opportunity. When you have a free moment, check out what I wrote in the server thread about your recent posts. From your insight, I was actually on the Knicks the whole way yet played Sacramento for the second half.

I feel that I know what the second half line/total should approximately be before the game even starts. If there is a gross misrepresentation in the line, such as the Knicks as +2.5 dogs in the second half last night, I knew that was the wrong side when the line really should have been Knicks -1 or -1.5.

Just my two cents of course. I know I do things differently than most and while it's far from perfect, it currently has me in a great spot in a relatively short period of time.

Ah, got it. Yeah, "Here's the winner. Just trust me!" as a write up won't cut it...

I'd expect superior communication skills for someone with your occupation. But there is an obvious chasm between oral and written communication where you explained you clearly excel at the former. Still you write well. That is the first thing I noticed in GD so maybe you are underestimating your abilities.

scalabrine, as they call you, u have the oracle eye at the moment. the matrix is yours. continue.

I will check that out and congrats on hitting the full game line and the half.

I've never met a GREAT second half bettor. I know great side and first half bettors, but never a second half bettor.

I've learned my lesson one too many times betting second halves so I do not do the unless one condition exists: A big dog had a big enough lead that you can effectively ML the game for even money. That is the only time I bet it, and even then you are losing the original juicy ML that it opened at.

Still I don't know everything about capping so you clearly have more insight on what it is to bet second halves and that certainly is a unique talent.

Actually I would agree, you are right, I do write well.

However the bar you have set is the apex of Covers as a whole and anything short of that seems mediocre. Not that I am comparing as you clearly have way more experience. I would just want to give back an equal product ya know? 

Maybe I will go with a dry run just to see. I always was a behind the scenes Covers member, even back in the day. My writing skills have developed from other subject material outside of sports betting but it is quite possible they could translate nicely. Thanks!

Interesting condition for your only second half betting option. I've seen it lose once in a great while but it generally holds true to the course. I completely understand not betting the rest. It is extremely volatile.

I appreciate all of this and do not want to monopolize any more of your time. Look forward to talking soon and keep doing what you do! At some point in time, I will have a strong winner with a good write up and will be sure to let you know