Johnson's NBA Thursday 1/10

Question

OVERALL RECORD:  101-95 (&#x2B;5.95u)Record vs. Spread/ML:  52-48  (&#x2B;4.55u)Record vs. O/U:  48-45  (&#x2B;1.3u)Record vs. Parlay:  1-1  (&#x2B;0.1u)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-3 last night.  Just think I&#x27;ve been over-thinking the plays lately, and second guessing the obvious.  Last couple nights, the obvious plays were the Hornets and the Pacers due to the line movement.  I knew this, but I talked myself out of it.  It happens of course, I&#x27;m still up money on the year, albeit nowhere close to where I want to be and where I was at the start of the year.  I know I&#x27;m better than this, just gotta re-focus and stick to the basics of the stats, trends, and line movements.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

OVERALL RECORD:  101-95 (&#x2B;5.95u)Record vs. Spread/ML:  52-48  (&#x2B;4.55u)Record vs. O/U:  48-45  (&#x2B;1.3u)Record vs. Parlay:  1-1  (&#x2B;0.1u)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-3 last night.  Just think I&#x27;ve been over-thinking the plays lately, and second guessing the obvious.  Last couple nights, the obvious plays were the Hornets and the Pacers due to the line movement.  I knew this, but I talked myself out of it.  It happens of course, I&#x27;m still up money on the year, albeit nowhere close to where I want to be and where I was at the start of the year.  I know I&#x27;m better than this, just gotta re-focus and stick to the basics of the stats, trends, and line movements.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

New York vs. Indiana -Without Carmelo it will obviously be tough for the Knicks to have enough offense against a very tough defensive team in the Pacers.  Indiana has won two straight games by double digits, and seem to be catching a nice groove during this homestand.  Home teams are only 8-12 ATS on Thursday nights, and had a nice comeback in December.  Line already moved a little bit in favor of the Knicks as the public is a little over 50% right now.  O/U is just too tough for me in this one because of the suspension.  Would lean towards the OVER, as with increased minutes for JR Smith and Steve Novak the Knicks shoot a lot of 3&#x27;s.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Dallas vs. Sacramento -The Mavericks are coming into this game on a pitiful 1-9 SU stretch, despite going 5-5 ATS.  Dirk has started to get his legs underneath him and shown some solid stretches of play.  The rest of the team has been completely unable to catch up however.  OJ Mayo has had a particularly tough time adjusting to the Big German&#x27;s presence.  In the 9 games since Dirk came back, OJ has only been averaging 13 points per game...and that&#x27;s including a nice 30 point game against the Heat.  Kings certainly haven&#x27;t been lighting the world on fire themselves...losing the last two games by a combined 52 points.  But they are well rested after a tough road trip...and that might be the key against a Mavs team that had a tough loss last night against the Clippers.  Initial total prediction is for the UNDER, as I just don&#x27;t see the Mavericks having enough offense even against a well below average Kings defense.  Will wait to later on and check the movements.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Miami vs. Portland -Might be the WTF line movement game of the day, as there is HUGE support for the Heat right now, and the line has yet to reflect that...even moving more in favor of the Heat at a lot of books.  This line should easily be around 6 or so..despite the Heat struggling coming into this one, and being in the middle of a west coast road trip.  If the line moves a little more towards the middle it would be harder...but it could be a win/no cover type of deal.

phat03 · Answer

Best of luck tonight CMJ...

WildCalveezy · Answer

I like the Knicks. Usually teams step up when they are missing one of their stars. Portland looks like the best play tonight. I know Miami is going to be the popular pick tonight but I think Portland wins this one outright. The heavy money appears to be on Portland with the line moving in their favor. Miami hasn't been that impressive on the road. They are only 7-7 on the road and Portland is 12-4 at home. They have been playing some really good ball lately. Portland ML!!!

CMJohnson1 · Answer

Most of the early money is obviously on the Heat...and I expect it to be like that all day long

glenndef62 · Answer

...for tonite, Mr J..............................

apeterson8809 · Answer

GL man

kidmike89 · Answer

Sorry for the tough stretch CM but you shall bounce back soon enough. I&#39;m 2-0 this week with the Pacers on Tuesday and Grizzlies last night. I could kick myself for not taking the Hornets but what are you going to do? I may lay off tonight as I do think the Heat line is interesting and worth taking a look at but it&#39;s tough to bet against the heat two times consecutively so may be a no play tonight. What are your thoughts on the O/U in that game?

Bruno_Saturn · Answer

fade. ! thnx for all ur fade picks ur making me rich bro! i think you should take a break for awhile though.your on a very cold streak since last month. your losing alot of units dudejust my 2 cents!

lewsparks1977 · Answer

i hear ya, i took the rockets last night when i was going to take the raptors over sixers. i can&#x27;t believe i fell for that garbage

snake2710 · Answer

BOL Bud like your early thoughts

TheForbes777 · Answer

Stay up CMJ, you&#x27;re still the man. I went 1-2-0 last night, it happens. &#xD;&#xA;Liking MIA, NYK, DAL tonight. I like OJ and Dirk tonight, they&#x27;re not losing a 6th straight. MIA is still the reigning champion...respect for them on prime time. Knicks without Melo = More Steve Novak. &#xD;&#xA;GL breh!

BamaTaxMan · Answer

LeBron &amp; Miami let the laundry out after the Indiana loss, I look for the Heat to come out on fire with motivation and focus to close out before All Star Break. Plus how many times have you seen Miami lose back to back games this season? Miami ML -150 (4 units)

TheForbes777 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I did the exact same thing. I&#x27;ve been on DeRozan and Toronto all season. Houston will be back though, they were due for a loss like that. No way do they have a repeat 4th quarter like that.

MuggsyBogues · Answer

I would also recommend stopping to lock in 2 unit plays without being sure who is in and who is out. If you do that, flipping a coin may work just as well.

Slim-Daddy · Answer

Where do you list your prop player plays? I'm sure some of your followers play thos as well. You should list those so they see exactly who it is they are following????

What is your record on those??

kidmike89 · Answer

Pulling the trigger on Portland boys... I like the matchup for the Trail Blazers and the are at home too. Miami not where they will be come playoffs and the public keeps pounding the them. Tough to best against Miami two times in 3 days but that&#39;s why it&#39;s gambling! BOL to all...

kidmike89 · Answer

Portland &#x2B; 3

manutdfctts9899 · Answer

BOL CMJ

CMJohnson1 · Answer

I have addressed this issue before, and as far as taking a break I just don&#x27;t like to do that.  If I do, it&#x27;s generally one day.  When I tell myself that I&#x27;m not playing any games, I still look at the lines and make projections for further research down the line.

CMJohnson1 · Answer

I&#x27;ve seen it twice, and I&#x27;ve also seen them lose 7 of their 10 games on the road, and I also don&#x27;t see the line moving at all despite somewhere around 70% on Miami spread.

Johnson's NBA Thursday 1/10

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