The home teams generally win SU on Friday nights, and with the line this low, it's nearly impossible to win the game and not cover. The Nets looked VERY motivated the other night...coincidentally after they pulled out of the Carmelo Anthony trade talks. What happens quite a bit is the team is relieved to know that they are all going to be playing together for a while, and can focus on the game rather than all the bullshit. I think this is a great spot for the Nets to get a good solid home win against the lowly Pistons...who are coming off a close fought battle with the Celtics. Even though the Pistons are 4-18 on the road this year, they are a respectable 12-10 ATS. I just see them coming out a little lazy in this one, not much to get motivated about on a Friday Night game in New Jersey during a snowstorm.
LA Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets OVER 212.5
The Nuggets just flat out don't play defense. It actually gets a little bit worse at home in the thin air. With the Melo trade talks dead for now...they can focus on basketball...and focus on the big game against the big team. Same situation as when they played earlier this season in Denver...with the total set at the same number as well. That game hit 230 with relative ease...and despite the fact that the Lakers only shot 40% from the field. You have to assume that number will rise a little bit. Might have to jump on this one soon...as I really see the line jumping up close to 215 by gametime.
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Initial Leans:
New Jersey -2
The home teams generally win SU on Friday nights, and with the line this low, it's nearly impossible to win the game and not cover. The Nets looked VERY motivated the other night...coincidentally after they pulled out of the Carmelo Anthony trade talks. What happens quite a bit is the team is relieved to know that they are all going to be playing together for a while, and can focus on the game rather than all the bullshit. I think this is a great spot for the Nets to get a good solid home win against the lowly Pistons...who are coming off a close fought battle with the Celtics. Even though the Pistons are 4-18 on the road this year, they are a respectable 12-10 ATS. I just see them coming out a little lazy in this one, not much to get motivated about on a Friday Night game in New Jersey during a snowstorm.
LA Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets OVER 212.5
The Nuggets just flat out don't play defense. It actually gets a little bit worse at home in the thin air. With the Melo trade talks dead for now...they can focus on basketball...and focus on the big game against the big team. Same situation as when they played earlier this season in Denver...with the total set at the same number as well. That game hit 230 with relative ease...and despite the fact that the Lakers only shot 40% from the field. You have to assume that number will rise a little bit. Might have to jump on this one soon...as I really see the line jumping up close to 215 by gametime.
Im w/ you on the Nets....theyr 8-10 at home this year, and Det lets up mounds of points on the road, and that type of D is just what the Dr. ordered for a normally offesively challanged Nets team.
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Im w/ you on the Nets....theyr 8-10 at home this year, and Det lets up mounds of points on the road, and that type of D is just what the Dr. ordered for a normally offesively challanged Nets team.
Thank you for the trends CMJ, especially the home dogs one. I want to roll with the Nets again after they cashed on that +6.5, but I struggle to figure out this Detroit team.. they can get blow out on the road at any point, but then hang with a team like the Celtics and cover? Ugh..
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Thank you for the trends CMJ, especially the home dogs one. I want to roll with the Nets again after they cashed on that +6.5, but I struggle to figure out this Detroit team.. they can get blow out on the road at any point, but then hang with a team like the Celtics and cover? Ugh..
Thank you for the trends CMJ, especially the home dogs one. I want to roll with the Nets again after they cashed on that +6.5, but I struggle to figure out this Detroit team.. they can get blow out on the road at any point, but then hang with a team like the Celtics and cover? Ugh..
If you watched the game like I did, you would realize that it was much less the Pistons covering the spread than the Celtics NOT covering the spread. The Pistons couldn't score, couldn't drive to the hoop...they were completely lackadaisical on the offensive end. And that was in a big game for them. Tonight it's going to be a dead arena considering the snow that Jersey got today with the rest of us assholes in the Northeast...so there won't be as much energy.
You just gotta pay close attention to the situations and you will have a much better idea of who will show up and when
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Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar:
Thank you for the trends CMJ, especially the home dogs one. I want to roll with the Nets again after they cashed on that +6.5, but I struggle to figure out this Detroit team.. they can get blow out on the road at any point, but then hang with a team like the Celtics and cover? Ugh..
If you watched the game like I did, you would realize that it was much less the Pistons covering the spread than the Celtics NOT covering the spread. The Pistons couldn't score, couldn't drive to the hoop...they were completely lackadaisical on the offensive end. And that was in a big game for them. Tonight it's going to be a dead arena considering the snow that Jersey got today with the rest of us assholes in the Northeast...so there won't be as much energy.
You just gotta pay close attention to the situations and you will have a much better idea of who will show up and when
Why risk it? Just because of my screwed up luck this game will probably end with a 2 point victory for the Nets...so why take that risk? The Pistons just came off an emotional loss/cover against the Celtics and the Nets are rejuvenated after being pulled out of the Melo trade talks.
Prediction: Nets 92 Pistons 89 Risk: 2.5 units to win 2 units
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New Jersey Nets ML
Why risk it? Just because of my screwed up luck this game will probably end with a 2 point victory for the Nets...so why take that risk? The Pistons just came off an emotional loss/cover against the Celtics and the Nets are rejuvenated after being pulled out of the Melo trade talks.
Prediction: Nets 92 Pistons 89 Risk: 2.5 units to win 2 units
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