Record vs. Spread/ML: 77-70 (+7.65u) Record vs. O/U: 78-66 (+14.3u) Record vs. Parlay: 1-1 (+0.1u) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-2 last night...sadly didn't play my other instincts in the Nuggets and the OVER...just stuck with the Celtics plays that I probably shouldn't have. Start of the weekend, and hopefully it goes as well as last weekend.
Record vs. Spread/ML: 77-70 (+7.65u) Record vs. O/U: 78-66 (+14.3u) Record vs. Parlay: 1-1 (+0.1u) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-2 last night...sadly didn't play my other instincts in the Nuggets and the OVER...just stuck with the Celtics plays that I probably shouldn't have. Start of the weekend, and hopefully it goes as well as last weekend.
Initial lean towards the Wizards in this game. They certainly seem to step up their game against top level opponents...the Nets seem to play down to their competition, and have been inconsistent in the past couple weeks. Also a look ahead situation for the Nets here as they have the Spurs coming in to town on Sunday. The Wizards are 12-0 ATS this season against a team that beat them in Washington in the first matchup...pretty freakin amazing. 28-14 as underdogs. A lot of money coming in on Brooklyn, hopefully the line stays right where it is, and hopefully the public keeps pounding the Nets. No real feel towards the total in this one...think it's set right where it should be.
Initial lean towards the Wizards in this game. They certainly seem to step up their game against top level opponents...the Nets seem to play down to their competition, and have been inconsistent in the past couple weeks. Also a look ahead situation for the Nets here as they have the Spurs coming in to town on Sunday. The Wizards are 12-0 ATS this season against a team that beat them in Washington in the first matchup...pretty freakin amazing. 28-14 as underdogs. A lot of money coming in on Brooklyn, hopefully the line stays right where it is, and hopefully the public keeps pounding the Nets. No real feel towards the total in this one...think it's set right where it should be.
Capped this one out at Lakers -4 and a total of 200. Vegas set both of the lines a little bit higher...and my initial lean is to stay the hell away from this game. Both teams are terrible right now. Lakers are a mess, and can't cover a spread higher than 3 or 4...Bobcats are a mess and can't cover two straight games. Bobcats also coming home after a long road trip, while the Lakers have this game and then the Heat on Sunday. I would say a look ahead game, but they can't look ahead to anything right now. No reason to play this.
Capped this one out at Lakers -4 and a total of 200. Vegas set both of the lines a little bit higher...and my initial lean is to stay the hell away from this game. Both teams are terrible right now. Lakers are a mess, and can't cover a spread higher than 3 or 4...Bobcats are a mess and can't cover two straight games. Bobcats also coming home after a long road trip, while the Lakers have this game and then the Heat on Sunday. I would say a look ahead game, but they can't look ahead to anything right now. No reason to play this.
Capped this one to be Pacers -4 or 5 and total at 181. Both numbers were set quite a bit higher due to how well the Pacers have been playing as of late. Total just seems way too high here. Pacers had a couple games against the Bulls and Hawks that were super fast and then adjusted big time against the depleted Sixers. They have the players to shut down Rudy G. Pacers also don't have to leave home until the end of the month. The spread scared me away in this one, but the UNDER certainly looks nice.
Capped this one to be Pacers -4 or 5 and total at 181. Both numbers were set quite a bit higher due to how well the Pacers have been playing as of late. Total just seems way too high here. Pacers had a couple games against the Bulls and Hawks that were super fast and then adjusted big time against the depleted Sixers. They have the players to shut down Rudy G. Pacers also don't have to leave home until the end of the month. The spread scared me away in this one, but the UNDER certainly looks nice.
Capped this one to be Hawks -9 or so and the total at 193. Reason why I had the Hawks so high despite their injuries is the scheduling for the Hornets. They had one home game sandwiched in between a bunch of road games. Hawks should win this game by double digits...so that's my initial lean unless the line tells me otherwise. Problem is that a majority of money is coming in on the Hawks, so we have to watch the line...and the Hawks struggle ATS in non-conference games and in home games. Hornets are 17-8 ATS on the road...and I hate playing the Hawks. Might have to just look at an early play.
Capped this one to be Hawks -9 or so and the total at 193. Reason why I had the Hawks so high despite their injuries is the scheduling for the Hornets. They had one home game sandwiched in between a bunch of road games. Hawks should win this game by double digits...so that's my initial lean unless the line tells me otherwise. Problem is that a majority of money is coming in on the Hawks, so we have to watch the line...and the Hawks struggle ATS in non-conference games and in home games. Hornets are 17-8 ATS on the road...and I hate playing the Hawks. Might have to just look at an early play.
Capped this one at Spurs -6.5 and total of 195. Line opened up below that, and immediately got pounded in favor of the Spurs. Pistons much better at home, no Timmy Duncan and Ginobili for the Spurs once again...Pistons have been struggling to get their legs under them in the past week or two. Faded the Spurs the other night against the Wolves and they stepped up and won big. They are 15-5 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference this season....if anything I would lean slightly towards the UNDER.
Capped this one at Spurs -6.5 and total of 195. Line opened up below that, and immediately got pounded in favor of the Spurs. Pistons much better at home, no Timmy Duncan and Ginobili for the Spurs once again...Pistons have been struggling to get their legs under them in the past week or two. Faded the Spurs the other night against the Wolves and they stepped up and won big. They are 15-5 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference this season....if anything I would lean slightly towards the UNDER.
Capped this game at Cavaliers -6 to 7 and the total at 203. Initial lean would be on the Cavaliers right now, and possibly the OVER. Magic are 2-17 this season, they are beat up and struggling. Cavs at home seem to be catching a little bit of a groove...and they enjoy beating the Southeast division, 8-1 ATS this season. Magic are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and I really just don't see any reason to take them right now.
Capped this game at Cavaliers -6 to 7 and the total at 203. Initial lean would be on the Cavaliers right now, and possibly the OVER. Magic are 2-17 this season, they are beat up and struggling. Cavs at home seem to be catching a little bit of a groove...and they enjoy beating the Southeast division, 8-1 ATS this season. Magic are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and I really just don't see any reason to take them right now.
Capped this one at Miami -6 and a total of 198. Vegas pretty much agrees with me. No real leans towards this one right now. Clippers have been free falling with their injuries, and without Blake Griffin, they lose their inside advantage. If CP3 is able to return to this one, I would lean towards taking the points. Clippers won the first meeting in LA, but the Heat have been known to take nights off, and it's tough to predict when they will do so. Possibly the biggest deciding factor in this one is that the Clippers very rarely lose the game but cover the spread or win the game and not cover the spread. The SU and ATS goes hand in hand with this team. Now if they win the game, obviously they are going to cover the spread, but I don't think they will win this game...so my initial lean might have to be with the Heat to make a statement against the LA teams who are both coming to South Beach with issues.
Capped this one at Miami -6 and a total of 198. Vegas pretty much agrees with me. No real leans towards this one right now. Clippers have been free falling with their injuries, and without Blake Griffin, they lose their inside advantage. If CP3 is able to return to this one, I would lean towards taking the points. Clippers won the first meeting in LA, but the Heat have been known to take nights off, and it's tough to predict when they will do so. Possibly the biggest deciding factor in this one is that the Clippers very rarely lose the game but cover the spread or win the game and not cover the spread. The SU and ATS goes hand in hand with this team. Now if they win the game, obviously they are going to cover the spread, but I don't think they will win this game...so my initial lean might have to be with the Heat to make a statement against the LA teams who are both coming to South Beach with issues.
Had this one capped at Memphis -1 and 185. I'm not sure I want to pick the Grizzles for quite a while, especially against a team that has been played over and above expectations this year. The trade of their leader and crowd favorite Rudy G. has clearly crippled this team. In the four games since the trade their shooting percentage has gone down and their opponents shooting percentage has gone way up. Initial lean is big time towards the Warriors and maybe the OVER just because of the stats of the Grizzlies defense in the past week. Warriors might be able to get up to 100 points, and should be pissed off after their last two games.
Had this one capped at Memphis -1 and 185. I'm not sure I want to pick the Grizzles for quite a while, especially against a team that has been played over and above expectations this year. The trade of their leader and crowd favorite Rudy G. has clearly crippled this team. In the four games since the trade their shooting percentage has gone down and their opponents shooting percentage has gone way up. Initial lean is big time towards the Warriors and maybe the OVER just because of the stats of the Grizzlies defense in the past week. Warriors might be able to get up to 100 points, and should be pissed off after their last two games.
Capped this game to be Rockets -6.5 to 7.5 and a total of 210. Vegas agrees. Third meeting of the year between these two teams, first meeting was super low with a 180 total with OT...second meeting was super high with a 236 total with OT. Split the difference and it ends up at 208. Rockets were on fire until their game against the Heat...but I do believe they have another blowout win in them. Will have to watch the line however to see if it moves at all...still maybe a touch too high.
Capped this game to be Rockets -6.5 to 7.5 and a total of 210. Vegas agrees. Third meeting of the year between these two teams, first meeting was super low with a 180 total with OT...second meeting was super high with a 236 total with OT. Split the difference and it ends up at 208. Rockets were on fire until their game against the Heat...but I do believe they have another blowout win in them. Will have to watch the line however to see if it moves at all...still maybe a touch too high.
Capped this one as Thunder -12 and 208. Pretty close on both accounts...the public is still pounding the hell out of the Thunder spread and the OVER. Biggest question I have about this game is how many points with the Suns be able to put up in this one? They have been pretty consistently hanging around the 92-96 mark...which means the Thunder would have to be in the mid-110's. First meeting between these two was at 210, second meeting was 192...would lean that this one splits the difference with a 107-93 type of game.
Capped this one as Thunder -12 and 208. Pretty close on both accounts...the public is still pounding the hell out of the Thunder spread and the OVER. Biggest question I have about this game is how many points with the Suns be able to put up in this one? They have been pretty consistently hanging around the 92-96 mark...which means the Thunder would have to be in the mid-110's. First meeting between these two was at 210, second meeting was 192...would lean that this one splits the difference with a 107-93 type of game.
Capped this one as Knicks -6.5 and a total of 204. Vegas agrees with the spread, but not the total clearly. When the total is set in the high 190's for a Knicks game, the OVER is 7-0. First meeting hit 185, which is why I figure this one will go a lot higher. Wolves are towards the bottom of the league in defending the 3 point line, and obviously the Knicks like to capitalize on that. Not too sure on the line because of the effort factor of the Knicks, and the fact that it might be a look ahead game to the Clippers in MSG over the weekend. I do like the OVER right now however.
Capped this one as Knicks -6.5 and a total of 204. Vegas agrees with the spread, but not the total clearly. When the total is set in the high 190's for a Knicks game, the OVER is 7-0. First meeting hit 185, which is why I figure this one will go a lot higher. Wolves are towards the bottom of the league in defending the 3 point line, and obviously the Knicks like to capitalize on that. Not too sure on the line because of the effort factor of the Knicks, and the fact that it might be a look ahead game to the Clippers in MSG over the weekend. I do like the OVER right now however.
Capped this one to be Jazz -4.5 and a total of 192. Initial lean is big time towards the OVER...as I believe that's how the Bulls feel towards this road trip...they are OVER it. Just got smoked out of the building on both sides of the court against Denver and Indiana...and they have the Spurs and Celtics in the upcoming couple of games. Might have to throw a play on Utah as well at home, but either way I like the Jazz to be able to do what they want offensively.
Capped this one to be Jazz -4.5 and a total of 192. Initial lean is big time towards the OVER...as I believe that's how the Bulls feel towards this road trip...they are OVER it. Just got smoked out of the building on both sides of the court against Denver and Indiana...and they have the Spurs and Celtics in the upcoming couple of games. Might have to throw a play on Utah as well at home, but either way I like the Jazz to be able to do what they want offensively.
Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen are all battling the flu, each
missed shootaround and is considered a game-time decision against the
Clippers on Friday.
Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen are all battling the flu, each
missed shootaround and is considered a game-time decision against the
Clippers on Friday.
Initial lean towards the Wizards in this game. They certainly seem to step up their game against top level opponents...the Nets seem to play down to their competition, and have been inconsistent in the past couple weeks. Also a look ahead situation for the Nets here as they have the Spurs coming in to town on Sunday. The Wizards are 12-0 ATS this season against a team that beat them in Washington in the first matchup...pretty freakin amazing. 28-14 as underdogs. A lot of money coming in on Brooklyn, hopefully the line stays right where it is, and hopefully the public keeps pounding the Nets. No real feel towards the total in this one...think it's set right where it should be.
that's an amazing stat, 12-0 ate... where'd you find that. also, they lost to brooklyn in OT at home by two without john wall, ariza
Initial lean towards the Wizards in this game. They certainly seem to step up their game against top level opponents...the Nets seem to play down to their competition, and have been inconsistent in the past couple weeks. Also a look ahead situation for the Nets here as they have the Spurs coming in to town on Sunday. The Wizards are 12-0 ATS this season against a team that beat them in Washington in the first matchup...pretty freakin amazing. 28-14 as underdogs. A lot of money coming in on Brooklyn, hopefully the line stays right where it is, and hopefully the public keeps pounding the Nets. No real feel towards the total in this one...think it's set right where it should be.
that's an amazing stat, 12-0 ate... where'd you find that. also, they lost to brooklyn in OT at home by two without john wall, ariza
I have to go with Portland today. Houston is scary but against a Northwest Division they have been far from productive ATS. I don't see a blowout but a close game, at most 5 pts difference either side.
I have to go with Portland today. Houston is scary but against a Northwest Division they have been far from productive ATS. I don't see a blowout but a close game, at most 5 pts difference either side.
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