I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
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I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. Aren't point spreads for G6 and G7 pretty much set regardless of the G5 outcome? Even if Miami blew out SA in G5, the G6 line would be Miami -6 or -7.
Ultimately, I don't think Vegas is trying to "reel" in bettors for G6 or G7. After SA blew out Miami in G3, Miami was slightly favored for G4. Then after Miami's blowout, MIami was favored for G5.
I'm tempted to ride the zigzag one more time, but it's mindboggling to me to think that Miami or SA can't play just as well after a loss that it did after a win when the stakes are this high. Both Miami and SA have been played in the NBA Finals multiple times. They shouldn't need a loss to help motivate them to play the next game. It makes me worry whether the zigzag is more correlative than causative.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. Aren't point spreads for G6 and G7 pretty much set regardless of the G5 outcome? Even if Miami blew out SA in G5, the G6 line would be Miami -6 or -7.
Ultimately, I don't think Vegas is trying to "reel" in bettors for G6 or G7. After SA blew out Miami in G3, Miami was slightly favored for G4. Then after Miami's blowout, MIami was favored for G5.
I'm tempted to ride the zigzag one more time, but it's mindboggling to me to think that Miami or SA can't play just as well after a loss that it did after a win when the stakes are this high. Both Miami and SA have been played in the NBA Finals multiple times. They shouldn't need a loss to help motivate them to play the next game. It makes me worry whether the zigzag is more correlative than causative.
I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
Fooled me too. That figures. Dammit, I'm still Joe Public.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I've just buzzed through several dozen threads, and I'm very surprised by how many guys are on the Spurs tonight. Very surprised! Right after the game went final on Sunday night, I thought Game 6 would be a massive public play with the whole world gladly following the zig-zag now that it favored the Heat to win the next game. I was wrong, though. Instead we've got plenty of gamblers who are writing off the Heat because they looked weak in Game 5. The +7 line has reeled in many. The stage is set for the zig-zag to keep on zig-zagging..
Fooled me too. That figures. Dammit, I'm still Joe Public.
Great thread Bator...thnx....Spurs played perfect in game 5 and Heat still within reach @ 3:00 mark? Add Crawford's crew to the mix and we have a 8-11 point win tonight for the Defending Champs...just my .02 GL tonight guys
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Great thread Bator...thnx....Spurs played perfect in game 5 and Heat still within reach @ 3:00 mark? Add Crawford's crew to the mix and we have a 8-11 point win tonight for the Defending Champs...just my .02 GL tonight guys
Thanks Bator for your insight. Great stuff. The heat to win the series for -130 being down 3-2 says enough about tonight's outcome. On the other hand, I'm not to confident on taking the first half for Miami or even the 6.5 for the full game. Right now im leaning betting nothing until halftime and then most likely just taking the heat whatever the line is, regardless of the score. You just can't ignore the trends you mentioned above. I also have a medium sized bet on the spurs series at -130 so i don't wanna go to heavy on Miami tonight in case they lay an egg. Bottom line lets go heat tonight and then hopefully spurs take it in 7 hah. Lets keep zig zaggin
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Thanks Bator for your insight. Great stuff. The heat to win the series for -130 being down 3-2 says enough about tonight's outcome. On the other hand, I'm not to confident on taking the first half for Miami or even the 6.5 for the full game. Right now im leaning betting nothing until halftime and then most likely just taking the heat whatever the line is, regardless of the score. You just can't ignore the trends you mentioned above. I also have a medium sized bet on the spurs series at -130 so i don't wanna go to heavy on Miami tonight in case they lay an egg. Bottom line lets go heat tonight and then hopefully spurs take it in 7 hah. Lets keep zig zaggin
Thanks Bator for your insight. Great stuff. The heat to win the series for -130 being down 3-2 says enough about tonight's outcome. On the other hand, I'm not to confident on taking the first half for Miami or even the 6.5 for the full game. Right now im leaning betting nothing until halftime and then most likely just taking the heat whatever the line is, regardless of the score.
That's what I'm leaning towards right now, too. I'm not laying -4 -110 or even -4 -105 in the 1st half with Pinnacle sitting at -4 -101 all day.
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Quote Originally Posted by PhiFlyguys:
Thanks Bator for your insight. Great stuff. The heat to win the series for -130 being down 3-2 says enough about tonight's outcome. On the other hand, I'm not to confident on taking the first half for Miami or even the 6.5 for the full game. Right now im leaning betting nothing until halftime and then most likely just taking the heat whatever the line is, regardless of the score.
That's what I'm leaning towards right now, too. I'm not laying -4 -110 or even -4 -105 in the 1st half with Pinnacle sitting at -4 -101 all day.
What I'm getting at here is that if the Heat find themselves in a tight one tonight in the 1st half, you should know what to do at halftime - UNLOAD. Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half. If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large. The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets. In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.
I know it's difficult to say now but what do you think will be your move if they cover the first half and have a lead of say 6-7? Would you fire again on the second half or be content with your first half wager?
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
What I'm getting at here is that if the Heat find themselves in a tight one tonight in the 1st half, you should know what to do at halftime - UNLOAD. Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half. If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large. The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets. In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.
I know it's difficult to say now but what do you think will be your move if they cover the first half and have a lead of say 6-7? Would you fire again on the second half or be content with your first half wager?
I know it's difficult to say now but what do you think will be your move if they cover the first half and have a lead of say 6-7? Would you fire again on the second half or be content with your first half wager?
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
I know it's difficult to say now but what do you think will be your move if they cover the first half and have a lead of say 6-7? Would you fire again on the second half or be content with your first half wager?
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
Lebron is averaging 31.5 ppg in playoff elimination games, the highest average in NBA history.
For Spurs backers:
Popovich is 19-5 in games in which his team had a chance to close out a playoff series on the road (second best all-time behind Tommy Heinson of the Celtics with a record of 8-1).
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Just heard this:
For Lebron prop bet backers:
Lebron is averaging 31.5 ppg in playoff elimination games, the highest average in NBA history.
For Spurs backers:
Popovich is 19-5 in games in which his team had a chance to close out a playoff series on the road (second best all-time behind Tommy Heinson of the Celtics with a record of 8-1).
Does anyone have any stats regarding this trend for 1st and 3rd quarters? Seems like if its close after first half Miami usually jumps on there competition in the third quarter. Is the 3rd qtr a better play if its close at half?
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Does anyone have any stats regarding this trend for 1st and 3rd quarters? Seems like if its close after first half Miami usually jumps on there competition in the third quarter. Is the 3rd qtr a better play if its close at half?
Lebron is averaging 31.5 ppg in playoff elimination games, the highest average in NBA history.
In line with that, for the 21 playoff games Lebron has been in this year he has put up under 15.5 reb + asst. seventeen times and gone over only 4 As of right now the under 15.5 line is juiced @ +130.,,, I have to do this.
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Just heard this:
For Lebron prop bet backers:
Lebron is averaging 31.5 ppg in playoff elimination games, the highest average in NBA history.
In line with that, for the 21 playoff games Lebron has been in this year he has put up under 15.5 reb + asst. seventeen times and gone over only 4 As of right now the under 15.5 line is juiced @ +130.,,, I have to do this.
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
that's what i'm talkin' bout
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
I guess I am confused. So, if the Heat are too far ahead to make 2d H bet, you will sit back and pull for them to beat the cra.p out of the Spurs so:
1) you can win your 29.4 unit bet in Game 7
2) bet all can on the fattest Spurs ML in 7
3)
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I'd be content with my 1st half wager. That's mostly because I'll still have a 29.4 unit bet on the Heat to win the series, so it's not like I won't have major rooting interest in the 2nd half.
I guess I am confused. So, if the Heat are too far ahead to make 2d H bet, you will sit back and pull for them to beat the cra.p out of the Spurs so:
One thing about the conspiracy theory on Crawford and the other Stern cronies. They are good at the end of the game calling a lot of nonsense fouls on the team that is behind in fouls to make it look good.
Also, even though the fouls may be even, what are the magnitudes of the infractions. I have seen so many rallies killed by NBA refs on ticky tack fouls.
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One thing about the conspiracy theory on Crawford and the other Stern cronies. They are good at the end of the game calling a lot of nonsense fouls on the team that is behind in fouls to make it look good.
Also, even though the fouls may be even, what are the magnitudes of the infractions. I have seen so many rallies killed by NBA refs on ticky tack fouls.
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