Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

Of course mates. Public always pounds "better", hot and popular teams in close spreads. And i love to support mobilized dogs on TNT thursday especially home dogs (like Nets). Clippers are awful road team and nobody see that. Derron Williams is back and made very good return last game. Brook Lopez and KG are way better players than overrated Griffin and this slam dunk misunderstanding Jordan... Clipps are b2b in long road trip which they lost already two (Hawks, Cavs). Nets need to prove in a big game and which game is better than TNT thursday against overrated Clippers team which against will lose in 1st round of playoffs ? We also have RLM here which screams: TAKE the Clippers but this is blindfold bet to me and i'm with home old dogs tonight

Arround 70% on Portland ML and 64% on HOU(+3). This ATS is important for me

I have nothing to say. EVERYONE in this forum knows that LAC and POR both ATS are the public money tonight. You are the only one with different opinion. I can't understand why you are thinking in wrong way. To explain you the obvious is like to dash my head to the wall. I stop this conversation. It's non-sense and everybody here see that.

BOL

Funk, what does RLM stand for?

RLM = Reverse Line Movement.

Example.

Tonight both games (RLM is typical for TNT thursday games):

Public hits hard the favorites. In this case Clippers - 2.5 and Portland - 3.5.  But suddenly the lines changes to Clippers - 2 and Portland - 3 which has no logic because we know that there is more bettors on their sides. We have two possible scenarios here:

1) Sharp money on dogs which moves the line (less possible)
2) Bookies purposely moved the line to push the public hit harder on one side (in our case favorites). I have noticed during the years that often this public side lose in TNT thursdays. (more possible)

In our case tonight we have RLM on both games and i like the dogs because they matchup very well against their opponents and i think we have my 2 point (more possible).

I can't say for sure that Nets and Rockets are 100% winning side tonight but i see very big value on them at this spot (past games, b2b, line movement, public side, TNT thursday and etc.)

Thursday:

Nets + 2.5
6.6 units (to win 6)
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Rockets + 3.5
4.4 units (to win 4)
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Rockets + 2 First Half
3.3 units (to win 3)

GL fellas

I Like those Picks

My gut feeling goes a lot with your reasoning, however, some logic hit in and at the end I decided to go with Clippers over Nets, but stayed on Houston. Clippers have so many advantages over the Nets in this one. As I'm more of an analytical type of guy, I had to go with Clippers in this one, since my computer model did not come up with any edges for Brooklyn. However, in Rockets case both my gut feeling and analytics are on the same side. Good luck tonight, let's see what happens...and a lot of weird stuff tend to happen on Thursdays :D 

Yeah... I have to admit that this season RLMs are still not profitable like in the middle and the end of last season when they were real money and many were those who cash from them. It's still start of the season and i think that is still hard for the bookies to fit their lines...  More of the times RLM fade public bets lost by a point or two ... and that will be change very soon when bookies fit their lines more "correct" for them and the lake will be full with fishes. I hope finally tonight will be first thursday when the public will be blow out with 2-0 for our fade bets 

fully agree with everything. 

can u foresee a situation whereby a person betting on the clippers in the early game, and watches them get blown out, so in the second game, they chase even more money on the blazers and lose again as the rockets cover. 

From your mouth to god's ears

Now i see that i didn't post my units bet properly. That's the real numbers. I played separate 7.7 and 3.3 bets instead two of my regular 5.5 units because don't  thrust on my 1 half abilities Now the card is final... looks correct... and more important: good

Thanks FF and gl all.

But the lines would be different every night if they moved the line every time in a way to get their 10% commission... Sometimes the lines are too fishy. Nobody could convince me that tonight more of the players are on crap team like Nets cause often these "big" players are just dump people with full pockets of money which they need to waste somewhere... and where is the best place for ? I think sometimes big sportbooks could afford 10 % losing money (instead their sure 10% if they move the line properly... as we know the odds are 1.90 for everybody... i bet 110 dollars to win 100 and the opposite bet 110 dollars to win 100... every 10 dollars are for the comissioner (casino, sportsbook and etc.)) from some game if they catch 35% winnings in a bloodbath public game. Like last two Lakers games for example... If the public wins this fishy "RLM" 5-6 times in a row and sportsbook suffers some losing they can return this money only with their sure 10% just for 1-2 days (10 regular games) and again they will put a trap games.... nobody can beat bookies... i'm laughing when i saw thread "I destroyed the bookies"... no man you cannot destroy "immortal 10% moneymaker machine"   The only thing you could do is to feel the right spot where you can take the money from other bettors.


This is how i understand online sport betting

Funk - you  are 100% right - this is a sharps vs squares battle royal tonight.

And i forgot one important thing. If sportbooks allow pregame money to be 70:30 in some favor they even the things in LIVE BETTING during the game where computerized system adjust the lines in every point and only MONEY move the lines. That's why we seen so different lines posted at half times here from people...  I can sure you that on LIVE sometimes there are even more money on the table than pregame. Especially on TNT thursdays... That's how they cover some losses (if there are any) in RLM games and finally catches their winning %... but if there is a bloodbath on this pregame 70:30 % and the less % wins you can count what money they make... that's why always we will have fishy lines... cause sometimes bookies wants more than these sure 10%...

uclalumnus

While most of what you said is true, picks based on RLM only is in black in long run, but nowhere close to what most guys here think.

But tonight i can't see a single reason why someone should back the Nets other than RLM and that is a scary thought imo...

Good luck to you tho!

Lines keep dropping... 1.5 nd 3 now

QuidProQuo There is no just RLM here IMO. I can point several reasons:

1) Derron is finally back and look nice (last game) which is plus for Nets because he is one of the solid pg's in the league.
2) Brook Lopez will dominate this game. As you know he is great on both sides (def and off). I think they both with KD are better couple than overrated Griffin and misunderstanding Jordan....
3) LAC are b2b
4) LAC are in the end of very long and exhausting road trip.
5) You have to notice that LAC are little struggling last games without scoring of JJ Redick...a this point only Jamal is competitive bench player on Clippers...
6) Nets are with good winning streak against Clippers at home. This is not so important because these teams changes their players and coaches during the years but it's still good trend for this bet.

Add this six points to the RLM and you'll get the value on this crap  bet (on first sight) Nets + points



Tigers2013 only line specialist (who works in sportsbook) could have answer to that. I just follow the movement and sometimes notice where i think the line is too push on one side

Ouchhh my Nets look very solid 1st q

I am with you on both