Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

Mavs ahead 17 points, 5 minutes left they didn't score

This is a bad beat, losing by half points

Man i just got lucky i got dal-3.5 but man that dal blow 13 points lead in under 3 mins!!! My heart stop wen cavs tried to score 3 points wen the game was already over!!! Wew. Comeback the nxt day man your bets was good just that luck is not on your side "yet" 

Hate complaining but I lost 5 bets today by a half point.  

Wednesday:

Cavaliers + 9
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------
Thunder - 2.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------
Mavericks - 4.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------
Blazers at Suns - Under 200.5
5.5 units (to win 5)


ATS: 23 - 24  = 48.9 %
O/U: 18 - 23 = 43.9 %
Overall: 41 - 47 = 46.6%

Units: - 53.5

Cavs missed dozen free throws in 4th quarter... no word for their all percentages... this team is total crap. Kyrie Irving was number 6 pick in all fantasy leagues i play.... haha... This man is not PG... he is SG and the teams without quality PG just s*cks... that is law in basketball. I haven't got any words for Dallas performance... i was thinking in the start of 4th that this is one of my best picks so far in the year... yeah of course.... As i wrote previous posts this year lines are set to do heart attack on somebody... I hate this red colors but this year NBA is brutal. I just need luck (never use that word in sports betting) because i realize that luck is need this season to be good and solid. Nobody before games last night could say to me that my Mavs and Cavs plays were bad because they were pretty good... 6 games behind . 500.... i hope in december the things will order in the right way and i will see more green colors as usual.

Lately it hasnt been your picks that are wrong, its been a streak of some very bad luck because youre always right there until some bull happens. Go get a rabbits foot or something lol

I played one game earlier. It is on other thread because it wasn't NBA game but it changes my unit bankroll which i track in this thread.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101760249

Euroleague Thursday:

Unicaja - 5
5.5 units (to win 5)


ATS: 24 - 24  = 50.0 %
O/U: 18 - 23 = 43.9 %
Overall: 42 - 47 = 47.2%

Units: - 48.5

The lines on some games just opened in my book. Three of them make me good impression.

Early leanings:

Heat - 5.5
Wizards + 10
Wizards at Pacers - Under 187

Four games hasn't got lines yet so maybe leaning list will increase tomorrow.

GL fellas

LOve the Miami lean. The heat have beat  the Raptors last ten games, dating back to 2011, and the raptors have lost every game by atleast 6 points, thats a healthy trend. Im jumping on at 5.5 before this line moves, which im sure it will. Like the washington lean as well, gonna get into checking these out. BOL

First official play is:

Heat - 5.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

I'm still liking my other two leanings. Just watching the line and public bets

How about dal again

In fact after hours of hard work i create mine own ATS system last week and running it at tuesday. This system is not checked in past... there are a lot of calculations in it and it's very complicated to do that... i just will run it this season and will see if there any profit numbers i get. So this system calculated best value games in the daily cards. I'm not sure if numbers in it are correct... so it's just a test for now.

Plays so far was:

Tuesday: Nets + 6.5 and Pelicans + 3
Wednesday: Celtics + 2.5, Cavaliers + 9 (bad beat), Suns + 4, Bucks + 2.5 (OT)

So it provides me 3-3 so far with two of the losses which were right calls in my opinion.

So when i run ATL/DAL in my system it said me clear. Hawks - 1

As i said this system is only test. I haven't got any numbers from last season because the numbers changes after every game... I will post results from it to see if there is any value or it's just some garbage which was loss of time

The bad in these mathematics type of systems is that there are many factors besides the lines and numbers. Like injuries, moment shape of current team, previous games between opponents, revenge factor and etc.. It just shows me where the line (according to numbers) is not set right and i could get more value in some bet. So for now i will use it just for assistance... my bets will never be based only on numbers. I like other factors in capping games too

Funk, have you ever seen tsikenbreast work on this site.  He likes raptors tomorrow as -5.5 seems a trap line.   He is very unorthodox but is also very good.   On this game I am also surprised that heat are only -5.5.  What do you think of such a low line being set.   

Heat is 12-0 winning streak against Raptors (last 11 (6 at Toronto) of them are with 6 and more spread). I don't care if there is any trap here. I'll took the best value team and that is Heat. This was (and still is) the winning bet in long term and that trend prove it!

11/05/13

TOR 95 - MIA 104

MIA -5.0

03/17/13TOR 91 - MIA 108 MIA -7.5
02/03/13TOR 85 - MIA 100 MIA -4.5
03/30/12TOR 101 - MIA 113 MIA -7.0

Here are last four games at Toronto with lines in them. As you see the line is avg 5-7. So this "trap" was set 4 times in a row before tonight's game and Heat covers 4 times the "trap". So this bet is 100% winning if we look past four games. If Heat couldn't cover here still Heat - 5.5 is the winning bet in long term (4 out of last 5 times or 80%)

I almost never bet on Heat because their lines are too unrealistic. If the line has to be Heat - 4.5 for example. Bookies always push the line to -7 ot -8 because they know the public will hit harder the best team in NBA... But in this - 5.5 is near to the "real" line of this game. + winning trend from past three seasons = Heat - 5.5

This trend and streak will be broke someday. Until then i will take it every time as i took it last three times... I'm on profit on this bet for now and I won't regret if the Heat couldn't cover tonight.

Have you checked out the Brooklyn vs Houston yet? Looks like houston owns them and has covered the spread pretty easily last 5. The lines not up in my book yet but im seeing -5  houston on some other books. -5 would be a gift IMO with a team that pushes the ball like houston does against an old team that seam to die out about the start of the 4th quarter. May be a good look

It's impossible Rockets will be - 5.... where you see that ??...  I predict something like -10 or - 11. Maybe - 5 will be for First Half...

Add second official play:

Wizards at Pacers - Under 187.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

Your right it is at 10, my bad, misread.

Funk thanks for taking the time on the heat and raptors query.  Great insight and logic.   Let's go heat.  

Check your PM (ot BG sym)

Have you considered the lakers Funk?
Sure you haven't overlooked the previous matches with the pistons...

Fellas sorry for not answer but i was going out with my friends.

Tigers2013 Don't have any idea why books always set the line in this diapason...

blueforce I can't see any PM from you .

MoreGeezer I checked this game but when there is EAST/WEST matchup is different... only two games a year (the short season couple of years ago even only one game...) so i rare bet on these games but i see what is your point. Maybe Lakers + points has shot here but i have bad feelings about this game. So i will stay away for sure.

Leanings:

Wizards + 10
Hawks + 1.5
Lakers at Pistons - Under 202.5
Rockets - 10.5

Final card for Friday:

For now:

Heat - 5.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
------------------------------------------------------------
Wizards at Pacers - Under 187.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
------------------------------------------------------------

Add:

Wizards + 10
5.5 units (to win 5)

My three original leanings from yesterday

Bol