First Attempt at an NBA Point Spread Model

Sheek - I hope you had a nice thanksgiving.  I’m looking forward to your model today.

88-59-2

Happy thanksgiving all.

magic -7.9
suns -12.3
heat -8.6
raptors -10.6
pacers -16.8
wolves -11.0
bucks -22.7
rockets -6.4
warriors -12.4
pelicans -5.2

SL 

Hope you had a great thanksgiving and thank you for all the work you put in.  Good luck today

Sheek - this is the most underrated thread on all of covers!   I am thankful for your time and analysis!

95-62-2

The spreads I've been posting lately have been based on a weighted average of the last 6 games.  Using that formula, the spreads today look a bit nutty.  I will post them, and I will also post the same formula with spreads generated using the full seasonal averages.  The results are the same for the most part, just a bit less exaggerated.

Previous 6 game weighted average

thunder -24.1
heat -19.8
hawks -7.56
lakers -8.4
pelicans -27.5
clippers -14.4

Seasonal average

thunder -1.4
heat -1.25
hawks -10.8
lakers -0.8
pelicans -4.95
clippers -2.6

@sheeklouch

6 Game average vs Seasonal average? Totally confused, for instance today Philly is a 1 point favorite over Oklahoma. The 6 game model Oklahoma should win by 24 points? The seasonal average Oklahoma should win by 1.4 points?

 @FresnoHawk68

 You said you were confused but you got it exactly right lol

@sheeklouch

Thanks. Appreciate your help!

Tonight is tricky because there are a lot of significant players who may sit out.  Remember that this model doesn't account for any of that. Not yet anyways.

@sheeklouch Thanks for the heads up! Wednesday I was going to ask if you factored in injuries, you went 6-6 according to my numbers figured you do factor injuries. Glad you clarified today! Already bet it all except Pelicans. 8-3 Last night so whatever happens I’m ok today.

98-65-2

bucks -23.8
wolves -13.5
magic -18.3
suns -14.9
hawks -13.4
raptors -2.8
nets -17.27
nuggets -9.3

@sheeklouch

@sheeklouch

 Been following.  Thanks for your posts.   

Who are the 2 Goats you are referring to?  Would love to look them up.

102-69-2

wizards -3.0
lakers -12.8
pacers -15.7
pelicans -23.7
clippers -11.9

104-72-2

nets -5.1
knicks -0.39
hawks -7.4
celtics -7.6
bucks -1.9
thunder -14.6
rockets -23.3
warriors -8.5

@sheeklouch

 Thanks for all you do.  I was just wondering, how did you get to 104-72.  Didn't this go 1-4 yesterday?

@RLM_Covers

 The numbers posted were based off of a weighted average of the last 6 games. I used to post more, but some people requested that I stick to only posting this line.  The Pacers line was significantly higher using the last 6 game weighted average formula than it was for the other versions of the formula, therefore the consensus pick was blazers +11.5.  I don't post all versions as it gets confusing for people trying to follow.

pacers -8.8 pacers -12.8 pacers -11.2 pacers -15.7 pacers -9.8 = Blazers +11.5

That's what I actually had put down on the sheet I just didn't post the summary yesterday as I wasn't sure if people were actually going through it all or not. 

got it- thanks!

So who would you actually bet on this sheet today 

I believe everything lined up today but I'll let you know when I get home. The one time I posted the actual picks and people asked me to go back to posting the old style lol. 

@sheeklouch

 lol, that was me.   I don’t play all of your games. But I base it off the ones I like and see how it aligns to your numbers.  

thank you,  appreciate your time and effort in putting these out.  I look everyday

@Swavings

 Good call.  Like I said I wouldn't recommend playing all of the games. I don't even play all of the games myself. The formula is entirely unproven. Just using this as an outlet for conversation and for tracking purposes. Good luck with whatever you're on tonight. 

@cheech1972

 nets -0.5 nets -1.7 nets -1.7 nets -4.3 nets -5.1 Nets -1.5
knicks -5.2 knicks -8.4 knicks -8.5 knicks -0.6 knicks -0.39 Hornets +11.5
hawks -1.6 hawks -3.3 hawks -3.3 hawks -8.7 hawks -7.4 hawks +4.5
celtics -7.98 celtics -13.89 celtics -9.8 celtics -12.16 celtics -7.6 Bulls +13.5
heat -0.26 bucks -1.3 heat -1.28 bucks -3.0 bucks -1.9 Heat +3.5
wolves -0.9 wolves -2.6 wolves -2.2 thunder -13.5 thunder -14.6 Thunder +2.5
rockets -6.9 rockets -5.5 rockets -9.9 rockets -22.1 rockets -23.3 rockets +3.5
warriors -2.0 warriors -1.5 warriors -4.0 warriors -6.3 warriors -8.5 warriors +1.5