151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
10 - 8 @ 56% for +1.2 Units
Tue 04/26
#1: Orlando Magic -7
Wow, how the mighty have fallen. The Magic were -9 point favorites in the first 2 games of this series at home and now they're at -7. Less than 20% of the public is on this favorite. Well, to me the 'value' is with them tonight. I have Orlando at -9.5 here, so that's about 2.5 points of 'value'. Why will they win and cover? Well, Orlando is +25 in rebounding for the series, +18 on offensive boards, and +31 in FTA's. Obviously that hasn't translated into wins, but these are 2 critical factors in 'playoff basketball'. In addition, I just don't see this team shooting below 40% tonight. I know their shooters have been struggling, but it's just as unlikley to go below 40% from the field (as is the case for a number of Magic's support personnel) as it is to consistently shoot above 50%. Bottom line, Richardson, Redick, Nelson, and Turk are too good to keep shooting 'bricks'. Does anyone really think a team that shot 36% from the 3PT line during the regular season is going to shoot 8% from 'downtown' like they did last game? As bad as they shot from the field, ORL still only lost by 4 in game 3 and by 3 in game 4. Now at home, facing elimination, with a 'well rested' Jason Richardson, I expect the shots to go in at a higher rate. Magic will look to control the PACE, dominate the paint with Howard, and hit a couple more of their shots. The difference between a 10+ point win and a 3 point loss is just that -- a couple of shots. Finally, the biggest difference-maker for the Hawks has been Jamal Crawford off the bench. Well, as I expect Magic's players to regress back to their means, I also expect Crawford to 'slow-down' as well. He's nowhere as good as he's been playing this post-season so far. I actually think the Hawks as a team are playing well 'above' their abilities right now, while Orlando is UNDER-performing. Sure ATL has Orlando's 'number' this season, but this is a game 5, an 'elimination' game, as all trends and past results go 'out of the window' here. 80%+ of the public is on the Hawks based on what they've done so far, but I'll grab a better team that is under-valued by a couple of buckets, playing in a 'MUST WIN' game at home.
#2: Chicago Bulls -8
Another UNDER-valued favorite. I have Bulls at -11.5 and this line has dropped to the point where there's too much 'value' on Chicago. Either way, I expect the Bulls to get it done tonight. Sure the Pacers have played very well in this series but after finally getting a win in game 4, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago blow them out tonight. Bulls are 10-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. They are also 7-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Pacers are actually 4-9 ATS on the road in the same spread-range, indicating that the bookmakers have been OVER-valuing them in similar scenarios. I obviously think that Indiana is OVER-valued tonight. The Bulls are going to establish Boozer in the post early today, due to Rose having an ankle injury. In 2 home games during the regular season, Boozer averaged 23 ppg and 14 rpg against the Pacers. Bulls won one by 19 and the other one by 21. I think establishing Boozer in the post early and often will be key tonight. They haven't been effective doing it in the first 2 home games of the series, with Rose taking on a bit too much on himself. Tonight, I see the Bulls changing it up a bit in the 1st half. This will keep Rose fresher for the 2nd half but will also open things up for the shooters. Bulls have been shooting below 40% for the series, and I see that going up tonight. Establish Booze, open up the shooters for high-percentage shots, and keep Rose fresh to do what he does best, and that's close-out games. Rose's injury has caused this line to plummet from -11 to -8 now, as the public is all over the Pacers in this one. I actually think, Rose's injury is going to change the game-plan a bit for Chicago, thus enabling them to pull out a convincing home victory and move on to Round 2.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."