Dare I say this is the BIGGEST WRITE-UP Covers.com has ever seen? TANK-A-PALOOZA 2014! Bucks@Pistons

Glad you are on board.

I am "firmly confident" in this play. I wouldn't have written it up with the longest write up ever on covers if I wasn't.

I was quite pleased with a line of 6 and thought it would by 7 or even get to 7.5.

I have your quotes from the Sixers thread and I have additional quotes but I didn't add them precisely because, they were, as you said, the same type of quotes as any other night.

Do not worry about the quotes.

The "Law of National Embarrassment" is a force that will guide the players to Victory, beyond anything they say pre or post game.

Players egos are a far greater force than talent on the court. The Pistons ego has been scarred in the worst way. They didn't lose 26 in a row but it sure felt like it on Saturday.

I have made a ton of money off this Law this year.

As I noted:

1. Knicks give up 51 in a quarter. Next night on a b2b, jump out to a 24 point lead and hold on and safely cover by 8. Kings never had a chance.

2. Lakers get bombed by the Clippers. While they didn't win, they covered in Denver, in the altitude, short handed no less! Had they had ONE day rest to recoup, reflect and unify, they would have beat Denver too. Two nights later they dispatch the Thunder SU as 13.5 point dogs! (Yes that was the line before too.

Another one I didn't mention:

3. Lakers Cavs - Cavs lose AT HOME to the Lakers who only have 5 healthy players on the court (and one of those is Robert Sacre!).

The very next game? They beat the rested Wizards in Washington by one, as NINE point dogs.

Lastly, 

4. Philly ties the record losing streak (they could not win in SA or HOU, that is just unfair on so many levels) and has a deflated Detroit team at home? They killed them by 25, looking like the Thunder themselves in the process.

This Law is 4-0 SU and ATS and really all covers have been by a significant amount of point beyond the spread (Knicks - 7, Lakers 17.5, Cavs 10, Philly 33.5!!!)

All these numbers are > than the 6 we are laying, with 2 of them against a great and good team, and Philly was at home and still blew the doors off the number and the Knicks still covered a spread of 6 on the road on a west coast swing.

Tonight, it is Detroit's turn fulfill this law, and to be at home, to not have to travel to the wasteland that is Milwaukee (which can depress you even further), to be held accountable in front of your home crowd after a loss that sunk this team to the depths of the Palace Brawl in terms of embarrassment, all with a VERY reasonable 6 to cover, reeks of an excellent betting situation, so much so it resulted in a write-up that may never be topped in terms of length. I just let my fingers do the talking and had to pull myself away from the keyboard at 2:40 AM.

Like the Knicks, it is hard to bet the Pistons. It is hard to bet the Kings. It is hard to bet the Lakers over the Thunder no matter the number.

But nothing you have to earn in life is easy.

We are here to earn easy money the hard way.

That requires us to lay a half a dozen points with a very bad team.

Luckily the team on the other side of the ball is far worse and with only a two game lead in the lottery over the Sixers, mysterious injures, blowouts to the worst of the worst, tanking requirements all still readily evident, 6 is almost gift wrapped for is here.

I expect Detroit to make a statement and if all the chips fall into place, it should be a fourth quarter where we breathe easy. 

Beat them and beat them hard. They are worse than the Sixers in terms of record and want to be. This is no place to lose and no place to have a close game, especially after the loss to the Philly.

Dumars won't be on the court to cover this number.

There is talent on this Detroit team (not that much but some that other teams covet) and they have, when they try, guys that can put the ball in the hoop. That is why betting a team like the Bulls is dangerous on some nights. If the D isn't effective, they can't score to get over spreads (see the push against the celtics last night). 

As long as you can put the ball in the hoop (the Sixers could not) you can get over a number like this. Jennings alone can cover this (against his Ex-team no less which is good) and after the two point output against the Sixers that he had, he will come out to make up for it tonight at home as will the team.

That is right.

We are not trying to start a winning streak with Detroit here.

The pistons need to remove the liver spot that was the Philly loss, ASAP. It starts right here. Tonight is the night to do that.

I am just curious what you think about the line movement? do you see the public heavy on the pistons and a shift up to maybe 6.5-7? 

I know you said you expected the line much higher, but after reading todays write up I am convinced and would like to know if you think its smarter to book it now rather then later to wait and see the line shift...

thanks

Don't be! It allegedly is nothing like Dante's Inferno.

But if the Pistons lose tonight, that locker room will feel worse than an Inferno...

They have the fire hose in hand though.

Look at the post above this one to BeginnerBoy about the Law of National Embarrassment.

ALL those teams gave little dam all year. ALL responded in a HUGE way the night after getting thrashed. The Pistons will follow suit.

Yes I can only see this rising and getting to 6.5 at least and at worst 7, but I don't think it will hit 7.

The only thing in our favor as Detroit backers is that the public is skittish about laying points with a team they think may have bottomed out (they have but not tonight).

The same thing happened with my Lakers Orlando post. Lakers laid 4 and the number pretty much stayed there which surprised me. Lakers covered but I would have sworn it would have hit 4.5 and even 5 against the 4-31 road record Magic.

It never did. The public just couldn't stomach the liability with such a number (4 is a number where points become valuable).

6 is even worse. I still see it getting to 6.5 and not 5.5 though but maybe it turns out the same way as the laker magic game in terms of movement.

No. The Pacers have 52 wins and there is no shame in a 22nd loss. The Cavs are bad but that was not a landmark loss.

The law works best with bad teams who, not so coincidently, are usually the ones to set these ignominious losing landmarks.

The Cavs loss is a bad one but remember the Cavs beat the Thunder in OKC. They have guts when they dig deep and can certainly beat a struggling Indy team at home. 

And there is just something so internally wrong with the pacers right now, especially Hibbert. For god's sake Tyson Chandler is playing better than him at times.

I won't be betting on that game. Indy has to show me more than just a win over the Heat, who have been losing more often than not in their own right before I can back them (and btw, they didn't even cover the 1.5 vs. the Heat).

Today's feature breakfast menu item: GOLDEN Grahams...

I did bet that game Scal. Got the Spurs at -3.5 but I think they win by 20. That was gonna be my biggest play of the year in the NBA until I read your post last night. But don't tell anyone. I don't want them laughing at me when the Pistons lose again. BTW, do you mind me asking what % of your bankroll you are willing to risk or possibly set ablaze (since we are in the 8th circle of hell here)?

That is why I write these up man!

Who could or should care about a Pistons Bucks game in late March?

We should though. These babies are the real moneymakers.

Take it down a notch, friend. There is a lot of history here that you may not be aware of. I picked the Pistons to beat the Sixers and they lost big (so my comment about people laughing at me is in reference to that). And the stuff about setting money ablaze is in response to Scal's analogy of the circles of hell. And no, I'm not asking Scal for advice on how much money I should put down as I locked in my bet last night at 6 (the line is now at 6.5) and I put down exactly the amount that wouldn't make me vomit (which was a spot on by you:). I ask Scal because as gamblers we like the feeling of being in it together. I risked a considerable sum, about 10 % of my current bankroll and I was just curious about how much he put down. So yeah, take it down a notch. Now excuse me while I go vomit.

Oh this baby is not going to be set ablaze...

I can't disagree with the Spurs play. It is reasonable line.

No need to disclose the bankroll amounts. That is still the one thing posters on here take out of my capping closet as a skeleton.

I'll just say:

I REALLY like this play. Detroit will win. They have to win and they will.

It is only a matter of the spread which in my opinion is low and another poster here had it at 8.5 (which is not all that crazy when it comes to the Bucks). They should manhandle them and get over this number, period.

Thank you! I'm glad to see another poster as confident as I am in this one.

Thanks!

He really should come to play tonight.

But I want to show posters something with regard to this.

Someone might ask, "why not bet a Jennings OVER player prop?"

Here is why.

Last night the Lakers played the Suns.

The last time they played I remembered that Swaggy P got in a fight with almost the entire team on 1/15/14.

He punched Dragic and Alex Len. He called out his team afterwards for not coming to his aid.

This was the revenge game for him (and for Dragic).

If you played the lakers +9.5, you didn't even need the spread in the lakers blowout. You won comfortably and it was never in doubt.

BUT what if you played a Nick young exotic.

If you played the nick young point total over 18, you lost. He averages 17 and you expected to get over a point more right? Nope. Didn't happen.

Why? D'Antoni didn't start him, didn't really let him get any flow to score, and he only finished with 12 points on 4/12 shooting in 24 minutes. Nothing remarkable in any way.

Don't play these exotics guys. Stick to the sides. That is where the money is.