This will host all PBA (Philippine Basketball Association) 2021 All-Filipino Cup wagers. Everyone is free to post their own leans/play/insights on every game.
CMM’s PBA 2021 Power Ranking:
Ginebra
San Miguel
Meralco
Phoenix
Magnolia
Rain Or Shine
NLEX
NorthPort
Alaska
Blackwater
Terrafirma
Team Preview:
Alaska
They made it to the playoffs in the bubble with a 7-4 record shocking everyone. They have a very high upside with good coaching and young talents lead by Teng, the emerging Tratter and new big man Adamos. They will be without Vic Manuel after being dealt to Phoenix and I believe that will be a very big hole to fill for a the young Aces. I see them in the lower part of the standing this conference as they are still green (despite being 3rd best in offense in the bubble) and injured key players returning and big name trade upgrades for the bigger teams.
Team Grade: C+
Projection: 4-7
Blackwater
Blackwater was very active in the offseason dealing half of its roster and patching their front court woes with draft picks and veteran signings. They have yet to play any tuneup game as a team and will definitely be feeling each other one game at a time. They were 10th in offense last conference and i dont see it changing. Spear heading this team will be new recruits in Amer and Enciso, holdovers in KG, a healthier Daquiaog and Tolomia, and hopefully get production from their rookies. It will be fun to see emerging talents from this bunch and the low expectation easily translates to no pressure in playing.
Team Grade: D
Projection 1-10
12noon Game: Alaska v Blackwater
b365 line: ALA v BWE+6.5
CMM’s proj. line: ALA v BWE+5.0
Both teams barely have any good guage of themselves without playing any pre-season games after an eight-month layoff. Alaska still have its core of players sans Manuel against a patched-up crew for Blackwater who’ll only have key holdover in KG and Tolomya. Last conf Alaska blew then out start to finish with a 120-82 score. I think Blackwater will struggle given only two months to prepare and without any real scoring options in that lineup. Alaska will only have to deal missing Manuel’s production. Alaska pretty much is a lock to win this game but given the long layoff they are sure to be off with timing and everything. Betting wise, dogs have been money in opening days the last 13 years in our local leagues (including ncaa and uaap) as well as morning pba games (including games played overseas which is around dawn ph time).
Team Preview:
NLEX
Nlex remained intact after the bubble. They had a woeful start of the conference which cost them a chance for a playoff spot. They ended the tourney with a 5-6 record but don’t be fooled. They are #1 in offense and easily the best in points scored and efficiency (they are however dead last in points allowed). I see them picking up where they left off the bubble but still situate themselves in the middle of the standing with barely any upgrade during the off season. Nlex has the capability of upsetting top teams with the scoring prowess they possess. They are however known to start slow which almost always cost them their chance at a better playoff spot.
Team Grade: B
Projection: 7-4
Rain or Shine
The best defensive team in the league is looking to upset top teams in this conference. They retain the same unit powered by 5th pick in Santillan. The coaching change from Caloy Garcia to Chris Gavina will barely feel any changes as both are very defensive minded coaches. The perfect mix of veterans and young players have been beneficial for the team as they pretty much compliment each other perfectly. RoS is a streaky team and after a 3-0 start in the bubble they plummeted and became average the next few games. RoS could easily be on top of the standing or in the middle of the pack if their vets can stay healthy all conference long.
Team Grade: B+
Projection: 6-5, First Round exit
3pm Game: RoS v NLEX
b365 line: RoS+2.5 v NLEX
CMM’s proj. line: RoS v NLEX+3.0
Classic Offense v Defense type of game with a little edge on RoS as they always seem to play better against their former mentor. I projected the road warriors to be dogs in this match as the ElastoPainters is better on paper on most matchups. Nlex’ true shooting is league best - 55.3% and defending against that is key. They run out RoS in last conf’s bubble 94-74. Play here is on the Elastopainters as you can almost always trust defense more than offense here in the PBA. The long layoff is huge as they are getting back to the groove of a things. Imo, pretty evenly matched team here where both will rely on team play more than anything else.
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