CrazyMilkMan's NBA Monday

While waiting for the superbowl, we got a game we can cap in our hands. Here's what I think:

Dallas Mavericks -4.5
This team is better in covering games on the road than at home and after that T-Wolves upset, this is a nice little spot to take them. Mavericks are 15-11 ATS on the road going 6-1 ATS on 2 days rest. Warriors aren't shabby with a 13-10 home ATS record but so-so with an 11-12 ATS on 1 day of rest. Warriors were able to cover 6 of their last 10. Warriors has only covered 2 of the last 5 games and rides an 8 game losing streak. Both teams played each other twice this season already. The first game went to the Warriors (played in Dallas) where we saw Monta score 45 points enroute to an 8-point win. Warriors also managed to cover the 2nd and most recent game they had (being a 12-point dog in both contest) even after being blown out in the 1st half. Dallas isn't doing as of late, this may be the reason for a relatively low line. They've only managed to cover 2 of their last 10 and none of their last 5 games. Playing more games on the road than at home in their last few games, Dallas has only won 1 of their last 5 and 5 of its last 10. Looking for Dallas to turn it around here. OVER 218 sounds good too. Dallas only has two consistent defenders in Marion and Kidd. Everyone else seem to have mental lapse defending the ball with consistency. They've been allowing teams to shoot more at an average of 50% in their last 6 games and for a streaky team like the Warriros, the total should fly right at the bat.


BOL.

im with you on this game...following the trend too...anybody who loses ats straight up then going on the road as a favorite will cover...but leaning under GOODLUCK

Dallas is also my pick for tomorrow. and they're in 6L ATS streak right now. but idunno.. it's nearing all star break.. and i kinda promised myself..

no more betting til after all star break. LoL.

Good Luck to you gais. :)

i MIGHT bet on dallas..

6 ATS 6 ATS!!

marggette with finger injury and coby karl in tne starting lineup for gsw.
i think i can make an exception and play the mavs.
mavs will cover this game

Something's fishy with this line.  After getting trounced by the T-wolves, supposedly the time that DAL is due for a bounceback, they're given a -4.5 line against the lowly GSW?  I like the bounceback angle, but the 1st-game-after-star player out angle also comes into play for the Warriors here.  This is the first game without Maggette.

GL CMM

Fantastic analysis, CMM. I agree with all of your points.

Is Maggette confirmed out tomorrow against the Mavs?

SAINTS

he is supposed to play and im on the Warriors ...

 

BOL milkman

GL I personal don't like this game. keeping my money in the bank on this one

what ya think of orlando/ gsw over?

orl's 5 straight Us now....

edit: noh @ orl 194.5 over

i think they can score.. 98 points a piece...???

Over looks decent but I'm not playing it. Hornets is getting a lot of OVERs lately so it could go either way. Doing a Hornets writeup ATM.

New Orleans Hornets +7.5 (or better)
Another conspiracy theory brewing up in my head. I played Orlando against Boston thinking that the men in green are done and would just want to get to the playoffs with as little effort as possible. Anyway, after the Magic jumping on the Celts in the 2nd half and winning it by 7, perception should be high on this Orlando team especially against a team that will be missing their star player and a promising rookie. I see the Hornets playing the Magic tough and perhaps squeaking one over the Magic then public jumps on the Celts the next day thinking that a team without their star play maker wouldn't be able to the top teams in the east back to back. And that's just me blabbing about. Anyway, Magic is pretty scary at home. I'd rather tease this line to at least feel comfortable for either way to cover. Almost having a similar ATS record with their home(13-11 for Orl) and away (14-13 for NOH) there seem to not have any stat advantage here except for the Magic standing up with a 19-5 SU home record to the Hornets' 11-16. Thing here is that the Hornets is quite a scary team playing almost any team to their level and losing only in the dying seconds of the game. If they are down, you could almost always expect them to come clawing back. The last time this team got blown out (or atleast lost by double digit) is way back after Xmas day against the Bulls. Other than that, we've seen the Hornets keep it close against the top teams and those streaking ones. On the other hand, Orlando will blow out bad teams at home and almost always cover large spreads but against a team as persistent as the Hornets, they should be in for a nice little surprise.

Darren Collison is the reason this team stays afloat, but with Dwight in the middle he won't be able to get those layups inside. Noh also is a poor defender of the 3ball..

i like the mavs play.

BOL cmm