Just saw that Finals "exact series result" prices and Cavs in 6 is the lowest by huge margin compared to 4,5,7. Whereas GS in 5,6,7 are all very close.And btw why is Cavs in 6 is so close to GS in 5,6 and 7? When GS is Double the odds just to beat them in this series?This is from Westage.Cavs in 4 is 1500, 5 is 1400, 6 is 450, 7 is 700.Warriors in 4 is 800, 5 is 350, 6 is 450, 7 is 350.
People who are bad at math do not provide reliable handicapping advice...
The Dude imbibes
Quote Originally Posted by J_Dash_Score:
Just saw that Finals "exact series result" prices and Cavs in 6 is the lowest by huge margin compared to 4,5,7. Whereas GS in 5,6,7 are all very close.And btw why is Cavs in 6 is so close to GS in 5,6 and 7? When GS is Double the odds just to beat them in this series?This is from Westage.Cavs in 4 is 1500, 5 is 1400, 6 is 450, 7 is 700.Warriors in 4 is 800, 5 is 350, 6 is 450, 7 is 350.
People who are bad at math do not provide reliable handicapping advice...
It's a pretty scary statement that a website full of sports handicappers can't spot the flaws in his logic (based on a failure to understand the math)...
Allow me to assist!
Cavs in 6 is so much lower than Cavs in 5 and 7 because Game 6 is in Cleveland, and the books know there is very little chance the Cavs are going to win this series in GS! Winning it in game 4 would mean the Cavs had to sweep the Warriors, which (among other things) meant they needed to win 2 straight games in GS... no way in hell that was happening!
The fact that Clev in 6 is so much lower than 4,5 and 7 DOES NOT indicate that this has a strong possibility of happening... it indicates that the other scenarios have a very SLIM possibility of happening.
To further the point, we look at the other part of the argument: that Clev in 6 has similar odds to GS in 5, 6 and 7. But you are comparing 1 scenario to 3 different scenarios. This only suggests that GS is much more likely to win the series than Cleveland... because there are 3 different scenarios for GS where they are considered MORE LIKELY to win than ANY scenario for Cleveland.
I mean... HELLO! The books have both teams at (+450) to win in Game 6. That means they consider it just as likely for GS to win the title on Cleveland's home court, as it is for Cleveland to win it on their home court.
Meanwhile, there are 2 other scenarios for GS that are considered more likely than either of those (Game 5 or 7).
Break it down:
GS in 4: 11%
GS in 5: 22%
GS in 6: 18%
GS in 7: 22%
Clev in 4: 6%
Clev in 5: 7%
Clev in 6: 18%
Clev in 7: 12%
Of course, all of this adds up to more than 100% because these kinds of future bets are for suckers, and don't offer true odds. But according to this, the odds of winning the series for each team were...
GS: 73%
Clev: 43%
So how does any of this suggest that the books are somehow "tipping their hand" that you should bet on Clev in 6? Seriously... this is a handicapping website! How are people this bad at math!?
The Dude imbibes
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
I don't see any bad math in that post?
It's a pretty scary statement that a website full of sports handicappers can't spot the flaws in his logic (based on a failure to understand the math)...
Allow me to assist!
Cavs in 6 is so much lower than Cavs in 5 and 7 because Game 6 is in Cleveland, and the books know there is very little chance the Cavs are going to win this series in GS! Winning it in game 4 would mean the Cavs had to sweep the Warriors, which (among other things) meant they needed to win 2 straight games in GS... no way in hell that was happening!
The fact that Clev in 6 is so much lower than 4,5 and 7 DOES NOT indicate that this has a strong possibility of happening... it indicates that the other scenarios have a very SLIM possibility of happening.
To further the point, we look at the other part of the argument: that Clev in 6 has similar odds to GS in 5, 6 and 7. But you are comparing 1 scenario to 3 different scenarios. This only suggests that GS is much more likely to win the series than Cleveland... because there are 3 different scenarios for GS where they are considered MORE LIKELY to win than ANY scenario for Cleveland.
I mean... HELLO! The books have both teams at (+450) to win in Game 6. That means they consider it just as likely for GS to win the title on Cleveland's home court, as it is for Cleveland to win it on their home court.
Meanwhile, there are 2 other scenarios for GS that are considered more likely than either of those (Game 5 or 7).
Break it down:
GS in 4: 11%
GS in 5: 22%
GS in 6: 18%
GS in 7: 22%
Clev in 4: 6%
Clev in 5: 7%
Clev in 6: 18%
Clev in 7: 12%
Of course, all of this adds up to more than 100% because these kinds of future bets are for suckers, and don't offer true odds. But according to this, the odds of winning the series for each team were...
GS: 73%
Clev: 43%
So how does any of this suggest that the books are somehow "tipping their hand" that you should bet on Clev in 6? Seriously... this is a handicapping website! How are people this bad at math!?
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
To simplify the point... anybody who likes Cleveland to win the series, and wants to bet on an exact series outcome, is going to bet that it will happen in which game?
ANSWER: Game 6!
You're not going to bet on the sweep, unless you don't know sh!t about these teams, and you aren't likely to bet it will happen in game 5 or 7 on the Warriors HC... so you bet game 6, of course!
But according to these odds...
GS is almost twice as likely to sweep
GS is 3 times as likely to win it in 5
GS is just as likely to win in 6 (on the road!!!)
GS is nearly twice as likely to win in 7
So how do you use these odds to convince yourself that there is something "fishy" going on here? Just goes to show... people see what they want to see!
However, if you just do the math, you are more likely to see things clearly...
The Dude imbibes
To simplify the point... anybody who likes Cleveland to win the series, and wants to bet on an exact series outcome, is going to bet that it will happen in which game?
ANSWER: Game 6!
You're not going to bet on the sweep, unless you don't know sh!t about these teams, and you aren't likely to bet it will happen in game 5 or 7 on the Warriors HC... so you bet game 6, of course!
But according to these odds...
GS is almost twice as likely to sweep
GS is 3 times as likely to win it in 5
GS is just as likely to win in 6 (on the road!!!)
GS is nearly twice as likely to win in 7
So how do you use these odds to convince yourself that there is something "fishy" going on here? Just goes to show... people see what they want to see!
However, if you just do the math, you are more likely to see things clearly...
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
These days it seems like most of the people are "soothsayers"...
The Dude imbibes
Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
These days it seems like most of the people are "soothsayers"...
It's a pretty scary statement that a website full of sports handicappers can't spot the flaws in his logic (based on a failure to understand the math)...
Allow me to assist!
Cavs in 6 is so much lower than Cavs in 5 and 7 because Game 6 is in Cleveland, and the books know there is very little chance the Cavs are going to win this series in GS! Winning it in game 4 would mean the Cavs had to sweep the Warriors, which (among other things) meant they needed to win 2 straight games in GS... no way in hell that was happening!
The fact that Clev in 6 is so much lower than 4,5 and 7 DOES NOT indicate that this has a strong possibility of happening... it indicates that the other scenarios have a very SLIM possibility of happening.
To further the point, we look at the other part of the argument: that Clev in 6 has similar odds to GS in 5, 6 and 7. But you are comparing 1 scenario to 3 different scenarios. This only suggests that GS is much more likely to win the series than Cleveland... because there are 3 different scenarios for GS where they are considered MORE LIKELY to win than ANY scenario for Cleveland.
I mean... HELLO! The books have both teams at (+450) to win in Game 6. That means they consider it just as likely for GS to win the title on Cleveland's home court, as it is for Cleveland to win it on their home court.
Meanwhile, there are 2 other scenarios for GS that are considered more likely than either of those (Game 5 or 7).
Break it down:
GS in 4: 11%
GS in 5: 22%
GS in 6: 18%
GS in 7: 22%
Clev in 4: 6%
Clev in 5: 7%
Clev in 6: 18%
Clev in 7: 12%
Of course, all of this adds up to more than 100% because these kinds of future bets are for suckers, and don't offer true odds. But according to this, the odds of winning the series for each team were...
GS: 73%
Clev: 43%
So how does any of this suggest that the books are somehow "tipping their hand" that you should bet on Clev in 6? Seriously... this is a handicapping website! How are people this bad at math!?
All that to prove a point? wow you must be even more bored than I am. Well I haven't read it yet, and I'm honestly not interested if someone on the internet is great at math or not...but since you put all that time into it, I guess I'll go ahead and read it
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:
It's a pretty scary statement that a website full of sports handicappers can't spot the flaws in his logic (based on a failure to understand the math)...
Allow me to assist!
Cavs in 6 is so much lower than Cavs in 5 and 7 because Game 6 is in Cleveland, and the books know there is very little chance the Cavs are going to win this series in GS! Winning it in game 4 would mean the Cavs had to sweep the Warriors, which (among other things) meant they needed to win 2 straight games in GS... no way in hell that was happening!
The fact that Clev in 6 is so much lower than 4,5 and 7 DOES NOT indicate that this has a strong possibility of happening... it indicates that the other scenarios have a very SLIM possibility of happening.
To further the point, we look at the other part of the argument: that Clev in 6 has similar odds to GS in 5, 6 and 7. But you are comparing 1 scenario to 3 different scenarios. This only suggests that GS is much more likely to win the series than Cleveland... because there are 3 different scenarios for GS where they are considered MORE LIKELY to win than ANY scenario for Cleveland.
I mean... HELLO! The books have both teams at (+450) to win in Game 6. That means they consider it just as likely for GS to win the title on Cleveland's home court, as it is for Cleveland to win it on their home court.
Meanwhile, there are 2 other scenarios for GS that are considered more likely than either of those (Game 5 or 7).
Break it down:
GS in 4: 11%
GS in 5: 22%
GS in 6: 18%
GS in 7: 22%
Clev in 4: 6%
Clev in 5: 7%
Clev in 6: 18%
Clev in 7: 12%
Of course, all of this adds up to more than 100% because these kinds of future bets are for suckers, and don't offer true odds. But according to this, the odds of winning the series for each team were...
GS: 73%
Clev: 43%
So how does any of this suggest that the books are somehow "tipping their hand" that you should bet on Clev in 6? Seriously... this is a handicapping website! How are people this bad at math!?
All that to prove a point? wow you must be even more bored than I am. Well I haven't read it yet, and I'm honestly not interested if someone on the internet is great at math or not...but since you put all that time into it, I guess I'll go ahead and read it
Had to dig around in the NFL forum for this, because my 2 pages of links don't go back that far on my page. However, I was one of the most vocal people on this forum when it came to the Super Bowl.
I could also link about 20 threads with my picks for Games 1 and 2 in this current series, along with Series predictions of GS winning in 5 or 6 games, max... in case you were somehow unaware... but it should be easy enough to find those...
Also didn't feel like digging back on the NBA page, but you will find that I was dead on in the GS - Portland series, too...
So now it is up to you... find a play that I lost!
The Dude imbibes
Quote Originally Posted by J_Dash_Score:
Lol I never seen duderonomy post 1 winning play ever.
U fools are just monday night qbs! After 2 wins acting like you're geniuses. Lol. I guarantee u 50% winner at best.
Had to dig around in the NFL forum for this, because my 2 pages of links don't go back that far on my page. However, I was one of the most vocal people on this forum when it came to the Super Bowl.
I could also link about 20 threads with my picks for Games 1 and 2 in this current series, along with Series predictions of GS winning in 5 or 6 games, max... in case you were somehow unaware... but it should be easy enough to find those...
Also didn't feel like digging back on the NBA page, but you will find that I was dead on in the GS - Portland series, too...
So now it is up to you... find a play that I lost!
yeah he diggin out posts from pages 1 and 2 to make a reply now, after the fact 2 games are over. classic troll.
I don't post predictions after the fact! If you don't know my picks on this series, you are intentionally avoiding them... I have been more vocal than anyone on this forum about GS in the first two games!
But the real point is that I tore apart your argument in this thread, and you are changing the subject to spare yourself some embarrassment... meanwhile... I can't seem to find a whole lot of winners from you in recent memory...
I am guessing you post about 100 times as many bets as I do, because you are a degenerate, as opposed to a handicapper... but percentage-wise, you can't hold a candle to my success rate!
The Dude imbibes
Quote Originally Posted by J_Dash_Score:
yeah he diggin out posts from pages 1 and 2 to make a reply now, after the fact 2 games are over. classic troll.
I don't post predictions after the fact! If you don't know my picks on this series, you are intentionally avoiding them... I have been more vocal than anyone on this forum about GS in the first two games!
But the real point is that I tore apart your argument in this thread, and you are changing the subject to spare yourself some embarrassment... meanwhile... I can't seem to find a whole lot of winners from you in recent memory...
I am guessing you post about 100 times as many bets as I do, because you are a degenerate, as opposed to a handicapper... but percentage-wise, you can't hold a candle to my success rate!
Trolls gon be trolls. I'm up 17gs since the playoffs started alone, hitting 70% consistent, so if that qualifies for a degenerate I'll be that! However you're just a pitiful internet Troll that calls games after the fact. Or in this case before its over. I could be wrong in this series, it aint the first time.
stupid people are greater threat to society than criminals.
Trolls gon be trolls. I'm up 17gs since the playoffs started alone, hitting 70% consistent, so if that qualifies for a degenerate I'll be that! However you're just a pitiful internet Troll that calls games after the fact. Or in this case before its over. I could be wrong in this series, it aint the first time.
Where are the covers "experts"? That gave Cavs no chance, disregarded what home court means, said bench players will kill the Cavs, and Cavs play in the weak eastern conference therefore they suck too etc? Bunch of squares.
stupid people are greater threat to society than criminals.
Where are the covers "experts"? That gave Cavs no chance, disregarded what home court means, said bench players will kill the Cavs, and Cavs play in the weak eastern conference therefore they suck too etc? Bunch of squares.
Now you are calling game 3 and 4. You are such a bafoon how is anyone suppose to listen to your teo predictions? Warriors wont lose back to back games to this sadass team.
.
stupid people are greater threat to society than criminals.
Quote Originally Posted by EastOakland:
Now you are calling game 3 and 4. You are such a bafoon how is anyone suppose to listen to your teo predictions? Warriors wont lose back to back games to this sadass team.
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
Youre the real degenerate buddy.
stupid people are greater threat to society than criminals.
Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:
Because 95% of the people on here are NOT Handicappers, they are degenerates. Degenerates are usually not good at math, or anything else for that matter.
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