Bo doesn't it scare you that the O/U is so darn low? If one team falls behind, gets hot, or stops getting offensive rebounds, the pace is going to pick up, and fast break points are going to come in bunches, like in the second quarter of last nights game!!
If I decide to take this UNDA NEATH, I won't be able to watch, it will be too painful. I got a few more grey hairs last night!
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Bo doesn't it scare you that the O/U is so darn low? If one team falls behind, gets hot, or stops getting offensive rebounds, the pace is going to pick up, and fast break points are going to come in bunches, like in the second quarter of last nights game!!
If I decide to take this UNDA NEATH, I won't be able to watch, it will be too painful. I got a few more grey hairs last night!
Bodio I dont expect a long answer as everyone bothers you like myself. But what im understanding is you basically use a model to check the lines and when/if you find something wrong then you investigate and look into it further then make a plays based on what you find. But if your model and the lines are the same do you not play those games and just pass on them?
Do you have a brief answer (as I dont expect you to give me your time) as to what look for or what is the factor in line settings. Obviously its different for every sport but the NBA for example I wouldnt know where to begin to make a model. I am more than willing to do the leg work as I enjoy doing this stuff. But as im learning and somewhat new to this I just dont even know where to begin. I know you believe in turn overs, and offensive rebounds and revenge angles and scheduling but I dont know how to relate that into a spread.
Anyways feel free to ignore or answer as you choose as I feel you do enough for everyone. Your opinions are much respected and just looking for a starting point.
And I know your are supposedly vegas butcher Id just like to hear it from you and I question why not go by bodio on the podcast. Bodio is so much cooler!
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Bodio I dont expect a long answer as everyone bothers you like myself. But what im understanding is you basically use a model to check the lines and when/if you find something wrong then you investigate and look into it further then make a plays based on what you find. But if your model and the lines are the same do you not play those games and just pass on them?
Do you have a brief answer (as I dont expect you to give me your time) as to what look for or what is the factor in line settings. Obviously its different for every sport but the NBA for example I wouldnt know where to begin to make a model. I am more than willing to do the leg work as I enjoy doing this stuff. But as im learning and somewhat new to this I just dont even know where to begin. I know you believe in turn overs, and offensive rebounds and revenge angles and scheduling but I dont know how to relate that into a spread.
Anyways feel free to ignore or answer as you choose as I feel you do enough for everyone. Your opinions are much respected and just looking for a starting point.
And I know your are supposedly vegas butcher Id just like to hear it from you and I question why not go by bodio on the podcast. Bodio is so much cooler!
Bodio you are the man and I love your write-ups, however if ATL does not doube team Howard I see many quick and easy buckets. ORL has great inside defense, but outside the paint area they must be the worst among these play-offs teams. I just can't see what could change apart from ATL scoring 10 fewer points in GM2. Nevertheless my $ is safe with you sir
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Bodio you are the man and I love your write-ups, however if ATL does not doube team Howard I see many quick and easy buckets. ORL has great inside defense, but outside the paint area they must be the worst among these play-offs teams. I just can't see what could change apart from ATL scoring 10 fewer points in GM2. Nevertheless my $ is safe with you sir
Bo doesn't it scare you that the O/U is so darn low? If one team falls behind, gets hot, or stops getting offensive rebounds, the pace is going to pick up, and fast break points are going to come in bunches, like in the second quarter of last nights game!!
If I decide to take this UNDA NEATH, I won't be able to watch, it will be too painful. I got a few more grey hairs last night!
Well, ORL is #17 in pace while ATL is #27 in pace on the season. Atlanta stated that they want to play a slow, grind-it-out style with Magic. I think Magic prefer that as well, since slowing down the pace, will let their D get back and cover the jump-shooters much more effectively. ATL got a number of good looks in the first game, on semi-break-aways, and I see ORL making adjustments to limit those. I guess the question you have to ask yourself is this. First game there were 196 points scored. What are the chances that ATL shoots 51% from the field and 42%+ from the 3PT line in this one tonight? I feel that the 2nd quarter of the first game was an anomaly (60+ points scored) and this game will resemble more the 1st and 4th quarters of that one. I could definitely see both teams scoring 12.5 less points tonight than they did in game 1....GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:
Bo doesn't it scare you that the O/U is so darn low? If one team falls behind, gets hot, or stops getting offensive rebounds, the pace is going to pick up, and fast break points are going to come in bunches, like in the second quarter of last nights game!!
If I decide to take this UNDA NEATH, I won't be able to watch, it will be too painful. I got a few more grey hairs last night!
Well, ORL is #17 in pace while ATL is #27 in pace on the season. Atlanta stated that they want to play a slow, grind-it-out style with Magic. I think Magic prefer that as well, since slowing down the pace, will let their D get back and cover the jump-shooters much more effectively. ATL got a number of good looks in the first game, on semi-break-aways, and I see ORL making adjustments to limit those. I guess the question you have to ask yourself is this. First game there were 196 points scored. What are the chances that ATL shoots 51% from the field and 42%+ from the 3PT line in this one tonight? I feel that the 2nd quarter of the first game was an anomaly (60+ points scored) and this game will resemble more the 1st and 4th quarters of that one. I could definitely see both teams scoring 12.5 less points tonight than they did in game 1....GL
Bodio I dont expect a long answer as everyone bothers you like myself. But what im understanding is you basically use a model to check the lines and when/if you find something wrong then you investigate and look into it further then make a plays based on what you find. But if your model and the lines are the same do you not play those games and just pass on them?
Do you have a brief answer (as I dont expect you to give me your time) as to what look for or what is the factor in line settings. Obviously its different for every sport but the NBA for example I wouldnt know where to begin to make a model. I am more than willing to do the leg work as I enjoy doing this stuff. But as im learning and somewhat new to this I just dont even know where to begin. I know you believe in turn overs, and offensive rebounds and revenge angles and scheduling but I dont know how to relate that into a spread.
Anyways feel free to ignore or answer as you choose as I feel you do enough for everyone. Your opinions are much respected and just looking for a starting point.
And I know your are supposedly vegas butcher Id just like to hear it from you and I question why not go by bodio on the podcast. Bodio is so much cooler!
hehe...VegasButcher is just my handle at pregame
Bodio is my handle here at Covers. Why different? No idea. I actually thought VegasButcher was kind of cool, plus I wanted to change things up.
In any case, my model for NBA is very different for MLB, NFL, etc....Way different. You have to remember that in NBA, most lines are very accurate. I use my model to confirm that. Sure, sometimes the line could be a point or so off, but usually it's easy to figure out why. In certain instances the line could be off by more than that, and usually there are injuries involved. Again, it's helpful to know what the line should be, and then try to figure out if the injury properly accounts for the variance.
Either way, I suggest developing even a basic model (MOV, SOS, Relative strength -- from my Playoff Preview guide) as it is a great starting point and enables us to handicap with confidence in trying to determine which team has an advantage of covering the line on that particular day, in that particular matchup. Instead of spending time figuring out if it's a 'trap line' or if the line is accurate, etc, we as handicappers can concentrate on actually breaking down the game and look at other relevant factors instead. I guess a statistical model provides a 'peace of mind'...I hope this answers your question...
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:
Bodio I dont expect a long answer as everyone bothers you like myself. But what im understanding is you basically use a model to check the lines and when/if you find something wrong then you investigate and look into it further then make a plays based on what you find. But if your model and the lines are the same do you not play those games and just pass on them?
Do you have a brief answer (as I dont expect you to give me your time) as to what look for or what is the factor in line settings. Obviously its different for every sport but the NBA for example I wouldnt know where to begin to make a model. I am more than willing to do the leg work as I enjoy doing this stuff. But as im learning and somewhat new to this I just dont even know where to begin. I know you believe in turn overs, and offensive rebounds and revenge angles and scheduling but I dont know how to relate that into a spread.
Anyways feel free to ignore or answer as you choose as I feel you do enough for everyone. Your opinions are much respected and just looking for a starting point.
And I know your are supposedly vegas butcher Id just like to hear it from you and I question why not go by bodio on the podcast. Bodio is so much cooler!
hehe...VegasButcher is just my handle at pregame
Bodio is my handle here at Covers. Why different? No idea. I actually thought VegasButcher was kind of cool, plus I wanted to change things up.
In any case, my model for NBA is very different for MLB, NFL, etc....Way different. You have to remember that in NBA, most lines are very accurate. I use my model to confirm that. Sure, sometimes the line could be a point or so off, but usually it's easy to figure out why. In certain instances the line could be off by more than that, and usually there are injuries involved. Again, it's helpful to know what the line should be, and then try to figure out if the injury properly accounts for the variance.
Either way, I suggest developing even a basic model (MOV, SOS, Relative strength -- from my Playoff Preview guide) as it is a great starting point and enables us to handicap with confidence in trying to determine which team has an advantage of covering the line on that particular day, in that particular matchup. Instead of spending time figuring out if it's a 'trap line' or if the line is accurate, etc, we as handicappers can concentrate on actually breaking down the game and look at other relevant factors instead. I guess a statistical model provides a 'peace of mind'...I hope this answers your question...
Bodio you are the man and I love your write-ups, however if ATL does not doube team Howard I see many quick and easy buckets. ORL has great inside defense, but outside the paint area they must be the worst among these play-offs teams. I just can't see what could change apart from ATL scoring 10 fewer points in GM2. Nevertheless my $ is safe with you sir
Agree. As long as Orlando runs 15-20 secs off the clock and then Howard scores, we'll be alright. I think ATL will live with that, heck they did it in game 1. What I expect to be different is Orlando's D in this one. They will emphasize tighter D on the shooters and to funnel everything into the paint where the DPOY is going to do work. I expect a slow, deliberate pace from both teams
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Quote Originally Posted by 10dalicious:
Bodio you are the man and I love your write-ups, however if ATL does not doube team Howard I see many quick and easy buckets. ORL has great inside defense, but outside the paint area they must be the worst among these play-offs teams. I just can't see what could change apart from ATL scoring 10 fewer points in GM2. Nevertheless my $ is safe with you sir
Agree. As long as Orlando runs 15-20 secs off the clock and then Howard scores, we'll be alright. I think ATL will live with that, heck they did it in game 1. What I expect to be different is Orlando's D in this one. They will emphasize tighter D on the shooters and to funnel everything into the paint where the DPOY is going to do work. I expect a slow, deliberate pace from both teams
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. I got a few more grey hairs last night!
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