Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
125 - 86 @ 59% for +30.4 Units
Sat, 03/26
FEAR the DEER +5.5
So guess what? Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and I managed to back them 2 of the three times when they lost. Well, tonight I’m going to back ‘em again, when they face the best team in the Eastern Conference, DA BULLS (by the way I’m a Bulls fan!). This game reminds me of a Bulls @ Pacers game last Friday, when Chicago was coming off a tough win the night before, and then traveling to face a team who had a ‘triple-revenge’ angle on them. Well, Bucks have ‘triple-revenge’ tonight, and the Bulls are coming off a tough home win the night before. In 2 of the 3 losses against the Bulls, Brandon Jennings didn’t play, and in the one he did, he was very ineffective. Well, he’s coming off a huge 37 point performance the night before. Do I expect him to get 30+ again? Of course not, but I do expect him to carry over that confidence and aggressiveness into tonight’s contest. Both teams are playing hard down the stretch, as Milwaukee is trying to climb up to the #8 spot while the Bulls are focused on locking up the #1 seed. With the Celtics’ loss last night, I’m curious to what the mental state is of these players, knowing that they have a 2-game lead now. Sure the coaching staff will continue to pound the fact that the Celtics are on their ‘heels’ but with the way Boston is playing right now and with a 2-game cushion, will the players respond to this message the same way they would if they were tied with the Celtics in the standings? Not sure. My point here is that I think it’s possible to expect a ‘slight letdown’ for Chicago tonight.
Let’s look at the lines in the previous 3 games this season: @ Bulls -8.5 (SA: -2.5 on the road), @ Bulls -7 (SA: -1 on the road), and in the last game in Milwaukee on Feb 26th Bulls were -4 points road favs. Again, you can see that at +5.5 the Bucks have some ‘line-value’ in this one. Either that, or the odds-makers overvalued the Bucks and/or undervalued the Bulls in each of the 3 previous games. I think the previous spreads were actually fairly accurate (the one on the road was a bit inflated just like tonights), and Chicago just outplayed Milwaukee in each of those games. Winning 4 games against one opponent is not easy, especially when that opponent is just as motivated as you. Bucks won both meetings last year on their own home court, and this game being the most important game of the year for them, I see no reason why they can’t win tonight. I also like the fact that Michael Redd is coming back in this one. (At least he’s scheduled to). No, I don’t expect him to make an impact on the floor, but his presence should provide an additional motivational edge for the players and the fans, and against a team like Chicago, you want any advantage you can get. Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and I feel there are enough factors in this one for me to confidentially say: FEAR the mufukin’ DEER!
125 - 86 @ 59% for +30.4 Units
Sat, 03/26
FEAR the DEER +5.5
So guess what? Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and I managed to back them 2 of the three times when they lost. Well, tonight I’m going to back ‘em again, when they face the best team in the Eastern Conference, DA BULLS (by the way I’m a Bulls fan!). This game reminds me of a Bulls @ Pacers game last Friday, when Chicago was coming off a tough win the night before, and then traveling to face a team who had a ‘triple-revenge’ angle on them. Well, Bucks have ‘triple-revenge’ tonight, and the Bulls are coming off a tough home win the night before. In 2 of the 3 losses against the Bulls, Brandon Jennings didn’t play, and in the one he did, he was very ineffective. Well, he’s coming off a huge 37 point performance the night before. Do I expect him to get 30+ again? Of course not, but I do expect him to carry over that confidence and aggressiveness into tonight’s contest. Both teams are playing hard down the stretch, as Milwaukee is trying to climb up to the #8 spot while the Bulls are focused on locking up the #1 seed. With the Celtics’ loss last night, I’m curious to what the mental state is of these players, knowing that they have a 2-game lead now. Sure the coaching staff will continue to pound the fact that the Celtics are on their ‘heels’ but with the way Boston is playing right now and with a 2-game cushion, will the players respond to this message the same way they would if they were tied with the Celtics in the standings? Not sure. My point here is that I think it’s possible to expect a ‘slight letdown’ for Chicago tonight.
Let’s look at the lines in the previous 3 games this season: @ Bulls -8.5 (SA: -2.5 on the road), @ Bulls -7 (SA: -1 on the road), and in the last game in Milwaukee on Feb 26th Bulls were -4 points road favs. Again, you can see that at +5.5 the Bucks have some ‘line-value’ in this one. Either that, or the odds-makers overvalued the Bucks and/or undervalued the Bulls in each of the 3 previous games. I think the previous spreads were actually fairly accurate (the one on the road was a bit inflated just like tonights), and Chicago just outplayed Milwaukee in each of those games. Winning 4 games against one opponent is not easy, especially when that opponent is just as motivated as you. Bucks won both meetings last year on their own home court, and this game being the most important game of the year for them, I see no reason why they can’t win tonight. I also like the fact that Michael Redd is coming back in this one. (At least he’s scheduled to). No, I don’t expect him to make an impact on the floor, but his presence should provide an additional motivational edge for the players and the fans, and against a team like Chicago, you want any advantage you can get. Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and I feel there are enough factors in this one for me to confidentially say: FEAR the mufukin’ DEER!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
0
,Any college for today ?
Nnnooooooooooo 
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