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Billy's Tuesday Picks

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Prospect
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Posted: #101


on LA & GS
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by Thunder_Dan:

I've been doing this for a living for a very long time. I've seen so many upcoming cappers have one or even two great seasons BUT if you bet -EV over the long run. It will ALWAYS kill you. It's a short walk from the penthouse to the outhouse. remember that. Sports betting is not about picking winners. It's about making money and it's not today or tomorrow we want to be winners. VALUE is everything in this game..

Wrong sport if your playing ATS, Danny Boy... Thats baseball and ML's...

Wheres the value when you play a constant line of -110 to -115? Breaking even for the season, you lose $$...

 
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Posted: #103
starting to like the bucks myself - line is dropping tho
 
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Posted: #104
 
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Posted: #105
[Quote: Originally Posted by TheTruth34]
Dude, you are a joke.  Does anyone out there really believe that you are betting 3 g's on these games.  Your posts are the funniest things that I have read in my life.  I am sure I am not the only one that roots my a$$ off for your plays to lose, lol.  People actually believe that you are wagering what you say, and are risking their hard earned money on these make-believe plays. If you are a true pro, you would not be spending your life posting your plays on this site, lol.  You are wagering monopoly money, lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I challenge you to a 1 on 1 challenge posting your top play vs. mine for 10 days.  I will crush you.  My Tue play is:
 
Denver -7
 
Where did you get Milwauee +8, lol?  There is no need to cheat.  Please post your play.
 

Someone at least has some sense.  This is an alias of some college kid,  if i have to time to waste i will dig up the old thread where he gave it away.  Prob some connection to greensnatch. Looks like he has a lot of his college buddies positng in his threads and hitting F5 with him a lot.

. 

 
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Posted: #106
"Wheres the value when you play a constant line of -110 to -115?"

Good Question Tru Valu.

I don't play 10 cents line. If you do that with flat bet you have to pick 53.8% winners to break even. You also lost 10% of your bet before the game have even started, Bad strategy. Find a better price and don't chase a number. Have a strategy and learn how and when to hedge and bet 2nd half. Anyone can be successful betting the NBA. You just have to forget what you know about the game and trust simple math. Bet against a team you believe will win and bet on a team you think get killed. It's not about what you know anymore. The game have changed. Now you need math skill to win long term.
 
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Posted: #107

sounds good ThunderDan  

What book do you use? 

 spektrum

 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by Thunder_Dan:

"Wheres the value when you play a constant line of -110 to -115?"

Good Question Tru Valu. 
Anyone can be successful betting the NBA. You just have to forget what you know about the game and trust simple math. Bet against a team you believe will win and bet on a team you think get killed.

 

that has to be the most ludicrous statement i have ever read

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by Thunder_Dan:

"Wheres the value when you play a constant line of -110 to -115?"

Good Question Tru Valu.

I don't play 10 cents line. If you do that with flat bet you have to pick 53.8% winners to break even. You also lost 10% of your bet before the game have even started, Bad strategy. Find a better price and don't chase a number. Have a strategy and learn how and when to hedge and bet 2nd half. Anyone can be successful betting the NBA. You just have to forget what you know about the game and trust simple math. Bet against a team you believe will win and bet on a team you think get killed. It's not about what you know anymore. The game have changed. Now you need math skill to win long term.

You should really check my post on my nba picks for today....You're just running around in circles, danny boy...

 
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Posted: #110
 
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Posted: #111
Billy, going with 5 units here on Hawks tonight.
 
Any thoughts? Hawks + 6?
 
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Posted: #112
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Roaddog30:

Billy, going with 5 units here on Hawks tonight.
 
Any thoughts? Hawks + 6?
i have changed my mind on this game i know am leaning on the hawks i like them tonight, if i were to play the game id be on the hawks, good luck
 
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Posted: #114
"You should really check my post on my nba picks for today....You're just running around in circles, danny boy..."

Maybe there is a reason that 95% of them who bet on sports will end up losing. Now why do you think they do that Mr TruValu? When everyone seems to be so sharp and know everything about it. Why do they lose? and why do the house always win?
 
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Posted: #115
GL tonight! 
 
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Posted: #116
with you on the bucks, but the line i got was +7

GLTA
 
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Posted: #117
YTD:26-17 +$11,300
 
Day: 2-0 +$6,000
 
Lakers -1 (-110) - $3,000 (Winner)
 
Bucks +8 (-115) - $3,000 (Winner)
 
Lakers got ahead early and just controlled the game just pouring it on indiana scoring 134 and winning by 20, Bucks got down early battled back to actually win the game i think they were down 14 or so in the 1st, so nice win for them, anyways 2-0 tonight picking up 6 grand i will take that all night long babby!!! hope everyone made out big tonight, i will see you all tommorow with hopefully a few winners.....
 
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Posted: #118
nice job bro


 
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Posted: #119
Great plays tonight Billy.  First time I followed you and worked out great.  Keep it up. 
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by jhankins8:

Great plays tonight Billy.  First time I followed you and worked out great.  Keep it up. 
glad you had a piece man
 
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Posted: #121
great call on the bucks brother... as always thanks for your insight.
 
 
 
love that .
 
i'm all over sac tonight along with the over.
 
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Posted: #122
Mickey - good luck with those kings my friend i do like them tonight, but im going to ake the win!!! ill be looking for a 2nd half play possibly, goood luck
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by BillyBuck:

Mickey - good luck with those kings my friend i do like them tonight, but im going to ake the win!!! ill be looking for a 2nd half play possibly, goood luck

i'd be chillin if i were you as well. GREAT PAYDAY!

wish i loaded up on the lakers and the over as i liked those a LOT, but i was a little gunshy with the potential trap and all. lookin forward to tomorrow brother, lots of games.

let's clean the man out this week bro.

 

gotta get some  before my monthly vegas visit.

 
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Posted: #124
I CANT BELIEVE3 YOU GOT OVER 10,000 VIEWS ON THIS THREAD BILLY...
 
 
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