2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

Will pass on the game.

Lean Raptors -5

Rare over history for the home team to lose by games 1 and 2. Raptors would be the high % play on ML, if they win SU it's likely they will cover.

Raptors did win SU as most home teams will.

game 3, teams down 0-2 get 4 additional desperation pts. Teams tied 1-1 we don't use my lines, instead we take the series winner if we have a strong team and they info points to that strong team winning the series.

Hawks - 6.06  over Cavs

OKC -1.5 over Spurs

Blazers +2.56

We play Hawks based on my lines.

We make a small play on Spurs based on better team and the higher % team to win the series.

We play Blazers based on the bounce factor fade on Warriors, the 2cd game of the fade actually produces the best record, so we up our play on the Blazers.

And based on the line withouit Curry we'd have a play on Blazers as well.

And remember, Blazers have the biggest diff between home record and road record at 12 games tied with Hornets. When these teams return home down 0-2 it's a good  play over history.

Hawks +3 (-105) over Cavs --- 3.15 units to win 3 units

Blazers +4 (-120 over Warriors --- 7.2 units  to win 6 units

Blazers +1 (-105) 1st half --- 3.15 units to win 3 units

Lean Blazers ML both 1st half and game.

We wait-out the Spurs line and make a 3 unit play on Spurs

Ha, ha, We should be in very good shape.............................

Hawks +3 (-115) over Cavs --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Hawks ML 1st half +100 --- 2 units to win 2 units

We now have 4 units on Hawks.

One game sure has a way to get many to over-react.

In the playoffs they out-shoot their opps by .9%, worse then their 1.2% regular season.

They are sending opps to the line much more often then they are getting to the line and worse then they did in regular season.

They have been better at winning the TO battle in playoffs but not by all that much.

Their big advantage so far in the playoffs has been 3 pt shooting which of coarse was heavily influenced by game 2 when they set the playoff record and is nothing more than an anomally.

Once enough games have passed that ave out that 1 game Cavs may not look so great as those pundits are trying to make them out to be at this point.

3 pt shooting was also one of the Cavs strength in the regular season, they took over 7 more attempts per game they up that to 10 in the playoffs .

They out-shot opps by 1.6% in regular season, not great but taking many more while out-shooting opps by 1.6 gains a nice advantage.

Playoffs they out-shoot opps by 8%, a huge advantage if they could maintain that, the problem is, that big an advantage is very, very difficulty to maintain, the Warriors can do it but they have the greatest 3 pt shooter ever, the Cavs will not be that consistent to match what a great shooting team like the Warriors can do.  

Or maybe they are a nice collection of players with no superstar to take over the game when the going gets tough.

I may have to look into such things a bit more and try to improve in this spot in the future. We always should learn more from our failures then our successes.

We were  able to pull-out a small win last night.

1-1 ATS, lost 1.3 units

1-0 ML, won 2 units

Cavs did shoot the 3 very well again, likely a big regression is coming. Only a matter of time, when a team makes 3's at a good rate they look unbeatable but as soon as those same 3's stop going in they won't look so good any more.

Cavs shot over 50% again on 3's, shooting over 40% is very, very good as a team, shooting over 50% is not sustainable over the long run, a team can do that in the short run but it's not likely to happen over the long run.

And when teams fall they often fall hard, shooting under 25%.

However, that does not mean it's impossible, but to do it over the remained of the playoffs for the Cavs to win the title and continue shooting 3's on ave over 50% would be an anomally, but those things do happen every now and again, but when your betting a team because they are shooting 3's at such a high rate you make the bet based on the likely-hood of it continuing, the odds are against it from continuing.

By betting against it from continuing your putting the odds in your favor long term.

Heat -3.29 over Raptors

Blazers +2.56 over Warriors

Series tied 1-1 we back team to win series ..... this series is fairly evenly matched,  but would lean Heat to win the series.

Would lean Heat ML.

Will pass on the game with Heat off 4 ATS wins and 2 straight in this series.

Will look for a better spot later down the road.

Blazers play already made above.......................

Would lean over 212 ...........................

leans --- total 1-0

leans ML 2-1

We should be able to pull-off another winning day today.

We have some strong indicators on both games today.

Hawks -2.06 over Cavs

OKC -1.5 over Spurs

Close-out games we don't use my lines, we side with the better, stronger team if the info justifies such a team.

The info has Cavs/Hawks very even, let's just say the info is wrong and Cavs clearly the better, stronger team,

That is offset by Cavs coming into a close-out game on a 3 ATS roll, not the best spot for those stronger type teams.

Cavs also off a 25 pt blowout win and then a cover, again not a good spot to back the Cavs.

Cavs on an incredible 3 pt shooting run, not likely sustainable much longer and now the public is over-reacting to this by pounding the over giving us value on the under with a regression due.

The public has already pounded the under previous 2 games and got beat bad so now they do what the public's loves to due, over-react. 

Add it all up and it's telling us a lower scoring game is coming which points to a regression for Cavs 3 pt shooters, when teams are on such big runs they will not stop shooting because the shots are not going in,  with all those successful 3's fresh in their minds they keep throwing them up.

Spots like these I've seen the team down win the next 2 games when everyone counts them out, not saying Hawks do it but it would not surprise me the least.

We stay the coarse with the info and ride the Hawks again................

Hawks +6 (-120) over Cavs --- 4.8 units to win 4 units

Hawks/Cavs UNDER 205 (-120) --- 3.6 units to win 3 units

Hawks +3 1st half --- (-128) --- 2.56 units to win 2 units

Hawks/Cavs UNDER 103 (-118) 1st half --- 1.18 units to win 1 unit 

Hawks finally got the cover for us and we score on the under after the public over-reacted to the past couple of games and pounded the over.

Was looking to back OKC with a 1 pt diff to my line, but the line has skyrocketed to OKC and we no longer have an edge with OKC.

If line goes to 2.5 then we'd be on Spurs.

This spot has historically been a good spot for the home team if the 2 teams are somewhat close to being  evenly matched.

It's difficult for the road team to win back-to-back games on an opp home court when the opp is a  team close to their abilities.

PR II these 2 teams are almost dead-even, Spurs just .36 better than OKC.

This supports OKC as the right play, then "IF" my lines were also on OKC we'd have a strong play.

Now with the large line movement may pass on the game but would still lean OKC.

There are a couple of 2.5, but most books look like 2.

Lean OKC -2

Lean  OVER 199