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2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

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Posted: #51
MY LINES.................

Celtics -6.29
Pistons -1.65
Spurs -6.39

We will play Celtics and Piston for sure, should go at least 1-1 with a solid  chance for 2-0.

Pistons line has risen by half a point from what I've seen so may want to wait and go for 5.

I haven't seen the Celtics line move yet.

Will likely pass on Spurs being a largest mismatch team,  they are only about 50% coming off 2 ATS wins.
 
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Posted: #52
Public %'s was on a monster 12-1 run before finally losing with the Warriors last night.

The public can and often does go on very strong runs if you were just blindly fading the public you got buried.

Mostly the public backs the obvious plays based on recent performance and from watching games on TV.

The public will likely have a regression back closer to 50%.

Right now they are on Cavs and Hawks which plays perfectly into our plays.

Last night they were on the Warriors with the 2cd highest % of the playoff thus far which fell perfectly with what would have been our play on the Rockets.

That's even more aggravating......................
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Public %'s was on a monster 12-1 run before finally losing with the Warriors last night.

The public can and often does go on very strong runs if you were just blindly fading the public you got buried.

Mostly the public backs the obvious plays based on recent performance and from watching games on TV.

The public will likely have a regression back closer to 50%.

Right now they are on Cavs and Hawks which plays perfectly into our plays.

Last night they were on the Warriors with the 2cd highest % of the playoff thus far which fell perfectly with what would have been our play on the Rockets.

That's even more aggravating......................

Are we looking for a particular line?
 
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Posted: #54
dude no, Atlanta will win and Cleveland are going to cover. Simple as that.
 
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Posted: #55
Celtic's now down to -2.5, we wait it out maybe can get another half point.

We have a new angle I just looked into, teams off 25 point blowout wins , ahead in the series and then picked against on my lines by at least 1 pt diff to closing line.

3-0 ATS last year, 1-0 ATS so far this year, will have to go back and do a few more years to test the quality of this angle.

OKC off a 31 pt win in game 1 with my line in game 2 of -12.16 and the closing line was -14, we had a play on the Mavs.

Of coarse the closing line could of been result of the injuries, maybe we don't get that closing line with a healthy Mavs team.

When Spurs won by 32 my lines had a lean to the Spurs in game 2 as did in Heat game as well.

Based on this angle we'd have a play on the Grizz in game 3, I definately would not play the Spurs.

Clippers almost qualify but are off back-to back 20 pt wins, maybe there's something there as well.  Will look into that one.

For Clippers just maybe they will be thinking hard about last season when they took a 3-1 lead over the Rockets winning by 33 and 25 pts, then losing the series.

They may never take their foot off the gas in this series or at least in game 3 with that horrendous loss in their minds they might be ready to explode, just a thought.

We have a somewhat similar version of this that's 8-2 ATS in the NBA finals since middle 90's.

Another thought is teams off 25 pt win who then cover the next game and then are picked against by my lines while leading the series.

This would also fit fading the Spurs and close  to fit fading Warriors last night considering the closing line was based on an injury to Curry in which case my line would be adjusted as well for the injury.

Just a few thoughts going forward.
 
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Posted: #56
Pistons +5 (-115) over Cavs --- 3.45 units to win 3 units

Celtics -3 over Hawks --- 3.3 units to win 3 units

Would lean the under in Pistons/Cavs game and the over in Celtics/Hawks game.
 
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Posted: #57
Thank you for your insight and sharing

 
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Posted: #58
 
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Posted: #59
I was leaning DET, but think Lebron & co. are going to come out and really stick it to DET after those dumb comments last game!  GOing heavy on CLE to come out strong and maintain a lead throughout the game.  Something they haven't been able to do yet.  
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by SyrianSoldier:

dude no, Atlanta will win and Cleveland are going to cover. Simple as that.

You're in everyone's tread say your picks will win but no explanation 
 
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Posted: #61
Grizzlies +12 (-105) over Spurs --- 2.1 units to win 2 units 
 
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Posted: #62
Great job as always 
 
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Posted: #63
 
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Posted: #64
Nice work??
 
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Posted: #65
?? ....Were supposed to be to continued success in the future 
 
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Posted: #66
 
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Posted: #67
2-1 ATS -- won 1.55 units
leans 2-0



Playoffs to date   ---  6-3 ATS, won 7.75 units
Totals   --- 0-1 , lost 1.1 units
Leans --- 4-1
 
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Posted: #68
Do you think Thomas for the Celtics will be suspended??? That would be disastrous for the green team
 
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Posted: #69
MY LINES...........................................

Pacers -1.81 over Raptors
Hornets -6.68 over Heat
OKC -4.16 over Mavs
Blazers -4.74 over Clippers

May be going into work today but should be home by the OKC game.

Will back the Pacers for 3 units if line is Pacers - a half point or less

If the line goes Pacers +2 or higher will go 5 units on Pacers.

Heat coming off a 25 pt blowout win , then an ATS win and now my line is against the Heat.

Hornets are 6th in home record but only tied for 13th, 14th, and 15th with the 2 other 8 seeds for road record.

Hornets have the largest diff between home and road record at 12 games, 30 to 18.

Well, Spurs are 13 game diff but that's different in the sense Spurs are historical at home and only very good on the road, the Spurs big difference is not reflecting poor road play and very good home play like the Hornets.

Quess who's also a 12 game difference ? ......................Blazers


The Heat are the largest value mismatch which has been a very good method BLINDLY backing the team in every game, which almost certainly would produce a winning record.

We could try and pick our spots or just back them every game and take the almost certain winning ATS record.

I don't think I'd take them here in this spot,  had we taken the Heat in game 2 and got the win and been 2-0 then maybe we could ride the Heat again and if we lose still 2-1.

We don't want to pass up a win then play a diff stratergy , this is not a good way to go about things, we want to stay the coarse with the same stratergy as game 2 which is picking our spots.

We either back them blindly every game or we pick our spots, the worst thing we can do is to change stratergy after a loss as the info has a way of regressing and you take this factor off the table when change stratergy. 

And remember largest mismatch teams are only about 50% off back to back ATS wins. and may be even worse off 25 pt blowout wins and then covering.

We'll take the Hornets for 1 or 2 units, if the line drops we take 2 units.


At this time I'd lean Mavs and Blazers but should make it make for our plays.

We should be able to pull a winning ATS record for the day. Could be a small one or a very nice one.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES...........................................

Pacers -1.81 over Raptors
Hornets -6.68 over Heat
OKC -4.16 over Mavs
Blazers -4.74 over Clippers

May be going into work today but should be home by the OKC game.So No official plays for now?

Will back the Pacers for 3 units if line is Pacers - a half point or less

If the line goes Pacers +2 or higher will go 5 units on Pacers.

Heat coming off a 25 pt blowout win , then an ATS win and now my line is against the Heat.

Hornets are 6th in home record but only tied for 13th, 14th, and 15th with the 2 other 8 seeds for road record.

Hornets have the largest diff between home and road record at 12 games, 30 to 18.

Well, Spurs are 13 game diff but that's different in the sense Spurs are historical at home and only very good on the road, the Spurs big difference is not reflecting poor road play and very good home play like the Hornets.

Quess who's also a 12 game difference ? ......................Blazers


The Heat are the largest value mismatch which has been a very good method BLINDLY backing the team in every game, which almost certainly would produce a winning record.

We could try and pick our spots or just back them every game and take the almost certain winning ATS record.

I don't think I'd take them here in this spot,  had we taken the Heat in game 2 and got the win and been 2-0 then maybe we could ride the Heat again and if we lose still 2-1.

We don't want to pass up a win then play a diff stratergy , this is not a good way to go about things, we want to stay the coarse with the same stratergy as game 2 which is picking our spots.

We either back them blindly every game or we pick our spots, the worst thing we can do is to change stratergy after a loss as the info has a way of regressing and you take this factor off the table when change stratergy. 

And remember largest mismatch teams are only about 50% off back to back ATS wins. and may be even worse off 25 pt blowout wins and then covering.

We'll take the Hornets for 1 or 2 units, if the line drops we take 2 units.


At this time I'd lean Mavs and Blazers but should make it make for our plays.

We should be able to pull a winning ATS record for the day. Could be a small one or a very nice one.
 
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Posted: #71
so no official play for now
 
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Posted: #72
Will pass on Mavs/OKC.

OKC coming off a 25 pt blowout win and picked against by my line, a great spot to play Mavs, 2-0 already this year.

However, to many injuries, the other 2 games did win with many injuries but I don't think we should push our luck with all those injuries to Mavs.

At some point those injuries should play a role, let's pass.
 
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Posted: #73
 
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Posted: #74
2-0 , won 4 units

I layed out how to play the 2 games, if Pacers were -.5 or less in closing line then a 3 unit play on Pacers, if line goes to Pacers +2 then a 5 unit play on Pacers.

We take the Hornets for 1 unit unless line drops then we take Hornets for 2 units.

Tommorrow I will be at work again, I will lay out how to play the games before I leave.

You can also check the NBA Contest on the site, my picks will be in there, only diff is the best bet in contest is 5 units, my best bets are 10 units, so I cut the units in half for the contest.

In other words if I make a 2 unit play in contest, it's a 4 unit play


 
 
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Posted: #75
We will likely take some action on the Blazers later. Will be back in a while, just got in from work today.
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