Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
83 - 60 @ 58% for +17.0 Units
Thur, 02/17
#1: Chicago Bulls -1.5
#2: UNDER 190.5 SAS/CHI
For those that recall my Sixers play at home against the Spurs, remember the analysis in which I discussed Spurs' recent struggles on the road against teams that play tremendous defense at home. Here's quick recap: Spurs recently lost @ New Orleans (91.1 ppg at home, #3 in NBA in 'home' defense), lost @ Portland (93 ppg at home, #6), won by 1 @ LA (95.3 ppg at home, #11) and lost @ Philly (93.1 ppg at home, #7 in the league). That's 1-4 against teams that have a top 11 home defense in the last 5 games against such squads (1 win was in LA on a buzzer beater tip-in). Well, guess what, tonight the Spurs play a Bulls team that has the #1 home defense in all of NBA. The Bulls give up 89.5 points-per-game at home. Hmmm...
In addition, Bulls are playing with 'revenge' in this one. They lost earlier this season to the Spurs, a game in which the Bulls were leading by 10 at half-time. Interestingly, the Bulls won every quarter in that game except one, the 37-12 third quarter, in which the Spurs outscored the Bulls by 25. I expect today's game to closer resemble the three quarters that the Bulls won in the first matchup, than the complete shellacking they received in Q3. Bulls are 18-6 SU (15-8 ATS) this season revenging a loss, and I expect this team to be very motivated for tonight's game. As hot as the Spurs have been, Bulls have won 15 of their last 16 home games and are 24-4 at home this season. This is Spurs' last game of a long and grueling road-trip, and even though I expect max effort from this squad, being away from home for such a long time has to take at least a bit of a toll on this older, veteran team. The Bulls won both games last season, and I definitely expect them to have an excellent shot at splitting the season-series on their home court tonight.
Besides playing the Bulls in this one I also really like the UNDER here. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between the 2 teams and 6-2 in the last 8 in Chicago. In addition, when Bulls play in 'revenge' games, the O/U is 6-18 in those scenarios. That's a 75% success rate this season. Also, the Spurs had 2 days off prior to this game. They're rested and should put max effort on a defensive end. In their last 8 games with 2 days of rest, the O/U is 1-7 in Spurs games. In addition the O/U is 1-6 in Bulls' last 7 games with 1 day of rest. O/U is 0-7 in Bulls' last 7 playing a team with a winning record, 8-15 in non-conference games, and 8-16 when facing good offensive teams scoring 99+ points per game. The O/U is 4-12 in Spurs' last 16 games following a win and 6-14 in their last 20 games overall.
In their last 5 games, Spurs are holding their opponents to 89 ppg and 42% shooting from the field. Bulls are holding their opponents to 41% shooting and 87 ppg in their last 5 games at the United Center. I really like the UNDER in this one.
Good luck!
83 - 60 @ 58% for +17.0 Units
Thur, 02/17
#1: Chicago Bulls -1.5
#2: UNDER 190.5 SAS/CHI
For those that recall my Sixers play at home against the Spurs, remember the analysis in which I discussed Spurs' recent struggles on the road against teams that play tremendous defense at home. Here's quick recap: Spurs recently lost @ New Orleans (91.1 ppg at home, #3 in NBA in 'home' defense), lost @ Portland (93 ppg at home, #6), won by 1 @ LA (95.3 ppg at home, #11) and lost @ Philly (93.1 ppg at home, #7 in the league). That's 1-4 against teams that have a top 11 home defense in the last 5 games against such squads (1 win was in LA on a buzzer beater tip-in). Well, guess what, tonight the Spurs play a Bulls team that has the #1 home defense in all of NBA. The Bulls give up 89.5 points-per-game at home. Hmmm...
In addition, Bulls are playing with 'revenge' in this one. They lost earlier this season to the Spurs, a game in which the Bulls were leading by 10 at half-time. Interestingly, the Bulls won every quarter in that game except one, the 37-12 third quarter, in which the Spurs outscored the Bulls by 25. I expect today's game to closer resemble the three quarters that the Bulls won in the first matchup, than the complete shellacking they received in Q3. Bulls are 18-6 SU (15-8 ATS) this season revenging a loss, and I expect this team to be very motivated for tonight's game. As hot as the Spurs have been, Bulls have won 15 of their last 16 home games and are 24-4 at home this season. This is Spurs' last game of a long and grueling road-trip, and even though I expect max effort from this squad, being away from home for such a long time has to take at least a bit of a toll on this older, veteran team. The Bulls won both games last season, and I definitely expect them to have an excellent shot at splitting the season-series on their home court tonight.
Besides playing the Bulls in this one I also really like the UNDER here. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between the 2 teams and 6-2 in the last 8 in Chicago. In addition, when Bulls play in 'revenge' games, the O/U is 6-18 in those scenarios. That's a 75% success rate this season. Also, the Spurs had 2 days off prior to this game. They're rested and should put max effort on a defensive end. In their last 8 games with 2 days of rest, the O/U is 1-7 in Spurs games. In addition the O/U is 1-6 in Bulls' last 7 games with 1 day of rest. O/U is 0-7 in Bulls' last 7 playing a team with a winning record, 8-15 in non-conference games, and 8-16 when facing good offensive teams scoring 99+ points per game. The O/U is 4-12 in Spurs' last 16 games following a win and 6-14 in their last 20 games overall.
In their last 5 games, Spurs are holding their opponents to 89 ppg and 42% shooting from the field. Bulls are holding their opponents to 41% shooting and 87 ppg in their last 5 games at the United Center. I really like the UNDER in this one.
Good luck!
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