Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
113 - 78 @ 59% for +27.2 Units
Wed, 03/16
#1: UNDER 202.5 OKC/MIA
#2: Oklahoma City Thunder +7
For a number of various reasons I like the UNDER in today's prime-time matchup between the Thunder and Heat. Let's break it down:
i) First of all, it's important to note that both teams are playing really solid D right now. Okie City is allowing 86 ppg and 40% from the field in their last 3 games. Their competition hasn't been very strong (Det, Cle, Wash) but defense comes down to 'effort' and this team is playing with a lot of it lately. Miami, in their last 3 games, are allowing 84.3 ppg and 39% from the field. They've played a much tougher competition in Lakers, Grizz, and Spurs, so these defensive stats are even more impressive. Bottom line is that both teams are putting forth the 'effort' on the defensive end lately and it shouldn't change tonight.
ii) These teams already played each other once this season. The posted total in that game was 202 and the total went over by 9 points. What some people might not know though, is that in the first quarter of that game, 73 total points were scored as both teams got out to very hot starts. Once they settled down, only 138 points were scored the rest of the way. 138 through 3 quarters is projected to about 184 points over a full game. You can guess as to which 'pace' I expect to see in today's game
iii) Speaking of the previous matchup, the starters for Okie City in that game were Durant, Westbrook, Krstic, Green, and Harden. I wouldn't call this lineup a 'defensive juggernaut', as they allowed Miami to shoot 52% from the field in that one. Well, today's starting lineup is going to be very different. Gone are Krstic, Green, and Harden (he's on the bench now), and in are Ibaka, Sefolosha, and most importantly Perkins. Okie City just got a lot more size in its starting line-up as well as much better defensively. Ibaka is coming off a game where he had 8 blocks, Perkins controled the boards with 9 rebounds in only 20 minutes of work, and Thabo...well, Thabo is in there for 'defense' only! With Mohammed and Collison off the bench, this Okie City lineup looks a lot more menancing, especially on a defensive end. Something tells me that Miami won't shoot 52% from the field or get 12 offensive boards tonight, like they did in that first meeting.
iv) Finally, I want to point out that there are trends out there that say the OVER is something like 8-1 in the last 9 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 in Miami. Well, I'm not an expert, but I'm sure these 2 lineups are very different from the years' past. Those trends are irrelevant here. What is relevant, is the fact that the O/U is 5-9 in the last 14 Miami games facing winning squads and 2-5 in the last 7 in Miami. This Heat team is playing really solid D at home and controlling the pace of the game against quality opponents. Well, Okie City is as quality as they come. I expect both teams to really play hard-nosed D tonight, rebound the ball well, and minimize second-chance opportunities.
I obviously expect this to be a very good game between 2 of the top teams in the league. Okie City made some changes to their roster in order to be able to better compete with the LakeShow in the post-season. Well, these changes will do them well tonight as well, as they will try to avenge their loss from earlier this season. Speaking of 'revenge' here, Thunder are 17-9 ATS in those scenarios this year. Why will they succeed tonight? Well, first of all, Miami shot 52% from the field while Thunder only shot 41% in the first meeting, yet still was leading by 1 with 30 seconds left in the game. This team protects the ball on offense and gets to the free-throw line (they're actually #1 in the league here) on a consistent basis -- both are critical to staying in the game and minimizing potential for blow-outs. In addition, the lineup changes that I've discussed above will help them tremendously in this game, especially on the defensive end. Durant and Westbrook will take care of the scoring, while Ibaka, Sefo, and Perkins will make it a lot harder for Miami to put up points. Lastly, I want to point out that we have some 'line-value' here. In that first meeting, Thunder were -1 point favorites at home. With 'standard adjustments' I would expect them to be around +5 tonight. Well, they're at +7. This team is playing just as well as Miami right now, they've improved their roster since the first game, and they'll be hungry for 'revenge', yet still the bookies inflated this number by 2 extra points? I'll grab the 'bucket' of pure 'value' every time.
Good luck!
My 2 other 'strong' leans today were Celtics and Jazz, but the numbers came out too high for my liking. Actually, the posted lines are 'right-on' and I was hoping for some 'value' on the favorites.
113 - 78 @ 59% for +27.2 Units
Wed, 03/16
#1: UNDER 202.5 OKC/MIA
#2: Oklahoma City Thunder +7
For a number of various reasons I like the UNDER in today's prime-time matchup between the Thunder and Heat. Let's break it down:
i) First of all, it's important to note that both teams are playing really solid D right now. Okie City is allowing 86 ppg and 40% from the field in their last 3 games. Their competition hasn't been very strong (Det, Cle, Wash) but defense comes down to 'effort' and this team is playing with a lot of it lately. Miami, in their last 3 games, are allowing 84.3 ppg and 39% from the field. They've played a much tougher competition in Lakers, Grizz, and Spurs, so these defensive stats are even more impressive. Bottom line is that both teams are putting forth the 'effort' on the defensive end lately and it shouldn't change tonight.
ii) These teams already played each other once this season. The posted total in that game was 202 and the total went over by 9 points. What some people might not know though, is that in the first quarter of that game, 73 total points were scored as both teams got out to very hot starts. Once they settled down, only 138 points were scored the rest of the way. 138 through 3 quarters is projected to about 184 points over a full game. You can guess as to which 'pace' I expect to see in today's game
iii) Speaking of the previous matchup, the starters for Okie City in that game were Durant, Westbrook, Krstic, Green, and Harden. I wouldn't call this lineup a 'defensive juggernaut', as they allowed Miami to shoot 52% from the field in that one. Well, today's starting lineup is going to be very different. Gone are Krstic, Green, and Harden (he's on the bench now), and in are Ibaka, Sefolosha, and most importantly Perkins. Okie City just got a lot more size in its starting line-up as well as much better defensively. Ibaka is coming off a game where he had 8 blocks, Perkins controled the boards with 9 rebounds in only 20 minutes of work, and Thabo...well, Thabo is in there for 'defense' only! With Mohammed and Collison off the bench, this Okie City lineup looks a lot more menancing, especially on a defensive end. Something tells me that Miami won't shoot 52% from the field or get 12 offensive boards tonight, like they did in that first meeting.
iv) Finally, I want to point out that there are trends out there that say the OVER is something like 8-1 in the last 9 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 in Miami. Well, I'm not an expert, but I'm sure these 2 lineups are very different from the years' past. Those trends are irrelevant here. What is relevant, is the fact that the O/U is 5-9 in the last 14 Miami games facing winning squads and 2-5 in the last 7 in Miami. This Heat team is playing really solid D at home and controlling the pace of the game against quality opponents. Well, Okie City is as quality as they come. I expect both teams to really play hard-nosed D tonight, rebound the ball well, and minimize second-chance opportunities.
I obviously expect this to be a very good game between 2 of the top teams in the league. Okie City made some changes to their roster in order to be able to better compete with the LakeShow in the post-season. Well, these changes will do them well tonight as well, as they will try to avenge their loss from earlier this season. Speaking of 'revenge' here, Thunder are 17-9 ATS in those scenarios this year. Why will they succeed tonight? Well, first of all, Miami shot 52% from the field while Thunder only shot 41% in the first meeting, yet still was leading by 1 with 30 seconds left in the game. This team protects the ball on offense and gets to the free-throw line (they're actually #1 in the league here) on a consistent basis -- both are critical to staying in the game and minimizing potential for blow-outs. In addition, the lineup changes that I've discussed above will help them tremendously in this game, especially on the defensive end. Durant and Westbrook will take care of the scoring, while Ibaka, Sefo, and Perkins will make it a lot harder for Miami to put up points. Lastly, I want to point out that we have some 'line-value' here. In that first meeting, Thunder were -1 point favorites at home. With 'standard adjustments' I would expect them to be around +5 tonight. Well, they're at +7. This team is playing just as well as Miami right now, they've improved their roster since the first game, and they'll be hungry for 'revenge', yet still the bookies inflated this number by 2 extra points? I'll grab the 'bucket' of pure 'value' every time.
Good luck!
My 2 other 'strong' leans today were Celtics and Jazz, but the numbers came out too high for my liking. Actually, the posted lines are 'right-on' and I was hoping for some 'value' on the favorites.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFL: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFLP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
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'TOTAL: 145-112 @ 56% for +$23,730
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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