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Atlanta Race Weekend Plays

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Posted: #1

2010

Sprint Cup + 12.67 units
Nationwide + 1.96 units
Trucks + .11 units

Driver matchups 22 -34 +13.41 units
Qualifying matchups 2-4 +.05 units
Top 3's 1-8 -.93 units
Top 5's 1-6 -.57 units
To Win's 5-45 +2.35 units

Total +14.74 Units

 

 

Locked in thus far

Gordon @ +850
Harvick @ +1100
Jr @ +2300
Kurt @ +1600
Edwards @ +1600

 

trucks

Kyle @ +300

 

 
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Posted: #2

As chalky as +300 on Kyle seems still a strong play. Half the time the trucks he gets are way and above anyone elses. 

 
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Posted: #3

Qualifying Matchups

Kyle over Kurt -110   .25 unit

Johnson over Martin -105   .25 unit

Edwards over Kenseth -130   .25 unit

 

Going with

 Kyle because he is running the same car that dominated at texas last yr and started up front over Kurt who will be debuted a new car

Johnson because of the car he is bringing, that took the pole at Charlote last yr + he has the better avg. start 7.8 to 10 for mark.

Edwards just seems like an easy play, think the books are off on this one, I would have made this line at least 30 cents higher.

 

these are all small plays where I see some value, GL tomm.

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Mark_The_Narc:

As chalky as +300 on Kyle seems still a strong play. Half the time the trucks he gets are way and above anyone elses. 

 

mark,

He has dominated Atl. since the 1st time he ever drove a truck there. 5 races he has run with 4 wins....he gets my coin for that type of record...the other finish was a top 10 also.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Mark_The_Narc:

As chalky as +300 on Kyle seems still a strong play. Half the time the trucks he gets are way and above anyone elses. 

   all the trucks he's running this yr. have nothing 2 do with last yr.  he is driving his own trucks this yr. with him starting his own team
 
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Posted: #6

Stats- Had no idea about that.  Going to look up some info on that now.  Pretty interesting stuff, that a young guy who doesn't appear that business saavy to me has got his own team now.  I'm mean the guy just got engaged to boot.  Hell of alot on his plate, huh.

 
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Posted: #7
bol  shooter

we agree on edwards .

Trucks.. I need some practice times here.
Kyle looked strong coming out the gate at Daytona.
 
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Posted: #8
 
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Posted: #9
 
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Posted: #10
GL Shooter

Mark Kyle jumped all in not only owns truck team but they build Chasis for Trucks & Nationwide teams
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by madshooter72:

Qualifying Matchups

Kyle over Kurt -110   .25 unit    

Johnson over Martin -105   .25 unit    

Edwards over Kenseth -130   .25 unit    

 

Going with

 Kyle because he is running the same car that dominated at texas last yr and started up front over Kurt who will be debuted a new car

Johnson because of the car he is bringing, that took the pole at Charlote last yr + he has the better avg. start 7.8 to 10 for mark.

Edwards just seems like an easy play, think the books are off on this one, I would have made this line at least 30 cents higher.

 

these are all small plays where I see some value, GL tomm.

 

Should have known better to go agaisnt martin who tested here, Hit 2 of 3 matchups for a small profit. Glad i grabbed Jr already, can't wait to see what kind of line they put out on him....we should get some real good lines on Harvick for sure... i would think he would be up around +2500 at least.

 
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Posted: #12
 
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Posted: #13
TRUCKS:

- - Kyle 14/5 to WIN (3 Units)

- - T. Bodine, Crafton, and Kyle to BEAT Ron Hornaday (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #14

Truck Race

Skinner over Almirola +145   .50 unit

Bodine over Crafton +163    .50 unit

 

Kyle to win @ +300   .17 unit

Harvick to win @ +325 & +190   .20 units total

Bodine to win @+950   .05 unit   (way too much value here)

 

Like the value on the above plays, Bodine is very good on mile and a half tracks and has a better driving rating, avg. finish,etc. here over crafton. Same thing here with Skinner, Almirola hasn't run well here in his 2 starts 18th and 30th and hasn't run here in a truck in 5 yrs. I think we most likely see Harvick in V lane today, he has the best truck, but there are some other guys who can steal a V away from him today. GL today

 
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Posted: #15
something to keep in mind also, Yesterday during the 2nd truck practice when all the guys were doing longer runs, Harvicks truck was the best on long runs, he didn't drop off nearly as much as everyone else, if he stays like that again today, he will easily win this race unless their is a mishap in the pits or some other late caution burns him, but if not...it should definately be a Victory for Harvick today.
 
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Posted: #16
great info shooter, got to love them long runs!

gl today
 
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Posted: #17

 didnt know if u knew or not skinner going 2 the back of the pack...  could b trouble in a truck race????

 
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Posted: #18

^^^

 

Yes I know stats, I  think that is why we are getting the + money, if he stayed where he qualified, he would have been probably -125 to -135.  Just see too much value on him, think it is a solid play.

 
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Posted: #19
hope ur right on skinner took him in 2 matchup's   both as a big dog  vs almirola and bodine!!!!!  hopefully he will go from last to 2nd
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by stats1:

hope ur right on skinner took him in 2 matchup's   both as a big dog  vs almirola and bodine!!!!!  hopefully he will go from last to 2nd

 

I feel pretty good with the play, way too much value to pass up there 

 
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Posted: #21
something to keep in mind also, Yesterday during the 2nd truck practice when all the guys were doing longer runs, Harvicks truck was the best on long runs, he didn't drop off nearly as much as everyone else, if he stays like that again today, he will easily win this race unless their is a mishap in the pits or some other late caution burns him, but if not...it should definately be a Victory for Harvick today.

Bodine over Crafton +163    .50 unit


nice calls shooter!

 



 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by imperialrock:

TRUCKS:

- - Kyle 14/5 to WIN (3 Units)

- - T. Bodine, Crafton, and Kyle to BEAT Ron Hornaday (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by madshooter72:

Truck Race

Skinner over Almirola +145   .50 unit    

Bodine over Crafton +163    .50 unit    

 

Kyle to win @ +300   .17 unit    

Harvick to win @ +325 & +190   .20 units total     

Bodine to win @+950   .05 unit   (way too much value here)

 

Like the value on the above plays, Bodine is very good on mile and a half tracks and has a better driving rating, avg. finish,etc. here over crafton. Same thing here with Skinner, Almirola hasn't run well here in his 2 starts 18th and 30th and hasn't run here in a truck in 5 yrs. I think we most likely see Harvick in V lane today, he has the best truck, but there are some other guys who can steal a V away from him today. GL today

 

Hit 1 of 2 matchups and the race winner, picked up + .60 units

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Looselugs:

something to keep in mind also, Yesterday during the 2nd truck practice when all the guys were doing longer runs, Harvicks truck was the best on long runs, he didn't drop off nearly as much as everyone else, if he stays like that again today, he will easily win this race unless their is a mishap in the pits or some other late caution burns him, but if not...it should definately be a Victory for Harvick today.

Bodine over Crafton +163    .50 unit


nice calls shooter!

 



 

thanks looselugs    

 
 
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Posted: #25

Race Day

Harvick over Burton +120   1 unit

Gordon over JJ +145    1 unit

McMurray over Ambrose +110   1 unit

Reutti over Logano +120    1 unit

Stewart over Hamlin +110   1 unit

 

J.J. top 3 @ +155   .15 units

Kahne top 3 @ +350   .15 units

Jr top 3 @ +245  .12 units

Truex top 3 @ +1350   .05 units

Sadler top 3 @ +3335   .03 units

 

Kahne top 5 @ +180   .15 units

JJ top 5 @ +135    .15 unit

Gordon top 5 @ +140   .15 unit

Jr top 3 @ +245   .12 unit

 

Edwards top 10 @ -115   .25 unit

 

total cautions under 10 1/2  -120    .15 unit

 

Jr to win @ +2300 & +1100    .16 units

Gordon to win @ +850   .20 unit

Harvick to win @ +1100   .20 unit

Edwards to win @ +1500   .12 units

Kurt to win @ +1600   .07 units

Kahne to win @ +1200   .07 units

Truex to win @ +8000  .03 units

Sadler to win @ +20000   .02 units

 

today should be interesting, Don't think we see JJ win today, I do think the stars are aligned for a Jr win though....this is his best chance to win in the last 2 yrs.....He has a really good fast car this weekend, if he stays clean and doesn't mess up, I think he wins it today. Think today is 1 of the harder races so far this year....will be interesting to see how the cars finish up today when the track is super hot and slick. GL today

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