Betting on baseball taught me how to handicap. I have the Excel spreadsheet from hell.
Two things that make baseball enjoyable are the things that can also turn baseball into an obsession as bad as the glass pipe.
1. Number of games, so lots of opportunities featuring value.It can also lead to burn out if you're hitting it every day.
2. Various betting strategies. A poster named VividJohn did a great job cataloguing some of them in the baseball forum last summer. He gave the credit to a book published in the '70s by Vegas legend Mike Lee.
One of the strategies was the 5-run Money Line--bet on a team that won the prior game by five or more runs. Conversely, bet against a team that lost the prior game by five or more runs.
Other strategies include betting 3 game winning-streaks, home dogs, etc. You can find a strategy for all kinds of situations, but the trick is to know when to bet with the strategy or against it.
For me, being a slave to a strategy is a mistake, especially if you pick it up mid-season. I think it's a good idea to be aware of any system that might apply to a given game, but to just consider it as another variable in the overall capping scheme for a game, like bullpen ERA.
The bottom line for me is that baseball wagering is a marathon, not a sprint. Don't bet the bankroll on any one game. Steady as she goes and look for dogs with good value.
I can't wait!!!! My spreadsheet is ready and waiting! Good luck this season, fellas!
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Betting on baseball taught me how to handicap. I have the Excel spreadsheet from hell.
Two things that make baseball enjoyable are the things that can also turn baseball into an obsession as bad as the glass pipe.
1. Number of games, so lots of opportunities featuring value.It can also lead to burn out if you're hitting it every day.
2. Various betting strategies. A poster named VividJohn did a great job cataloguing some of them in the baseball forum last summer. He gave the credit to a book published in the '70s by Vegas legend Mike Lee.
One of the strategies was the 5-run Money Line--bet on a team that won the prior game by five or more runs. Conversely, bet against a team that lost the prior game by five or more runs.
Other strategies include betting 3 game winning-streaks, home dogs, etc. You can find a strategy for all kinds of situations, but the trick is to know when to bet with the strategy or against it.
For me, being a slave to a strategy is a mistake, especially if you pick it up mid-season. I think it's a good idea to be aware of any system that might apply to a given game, but to just consider it as another variable in the overall capping scheme for a game, like bullpen ERA.
The bottom line for me is that baseball wagering is a marathon, not a sprint. Don't bet the bankroll on any one game. Steady as she goes and look for dogs with good value.
I can't wait!!!! My spreadsheet is ready and waiting! Good luck this season, fellas!
Ya i am getting pumped for baseball opening day as well. Lats year was my first year betting baseball and it went from a "play a few games" to intense daily analysis. I love it. For me nothing betas starting a day, printing off the odds, print sheets and looking at the matchups. I do that on and off all day and leave work with a few bets in action. Then off to watch mlb.tv all night. HAHAHA. I'm a loser but i love it.
Go Stros !!!
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Ya i am getting pumped for baseball opening day as well. Lats year was my first year betting baseball and it went from a "play a few games" to intense daily analysis. I love it. For me nothing betas starting a day, printing off the odds, print sheets and looking at the matchups. I do that on and off all day and leave work with a few bets in action. Then off to watch mlb.tv all night. HAHAHA. I'm a loser but i love it.
I agree...MLB is by far my favorite to bet/watch. I absolutely love baseball and love betting on it even more. Love that you can bet and over and hit in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Also love that no one gives up, every batter tries to do his best even when his team is up 8 runs. Does anyone here bet Spring Training...I typically love to bet it and find value in the +135 type of games.
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I agree...MLB is by far my favorite to bet/watch. I absolutely love baseball and love betting on it even more. Love that you can bet and over and hit in the 2nd or 3rd inning. Also love that no one gives up, every batter tries to do his best even when his team is up 8 runs. Does anyone here bet Spring Training...I typically love to bet it and find value in the +135 type of games.
you can get moosed in baseball just like any sport. Calling it something other than a moose does not mean you didn't get fucked
There is no arguing that. You can get screwed in any sport, but all i am saying is the less you bet on spreads and more on money lines the less likely you will get "moosed". Baseball is like that and one of the MANY reasons i love it.
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Quote Originally Posted by accventures:
you can get moosed in baseball just like any sport. Calling it something other than a moose does not mean you didn't get fucked
There is no arguing that. You can get screwed in any sport, but all i am saying is the less you bet on spreads and more on money lines the less likely you will get "moosed". Baseball is like that and one of the MANY reasons i love it.
I know this thread is a few weeks old, but I will be putting a few bucks on baseball myself this season and thought it had such good information that it was worth a bumping with a question.
What are the big differences between capping A.L. vs. N.L.? It seems, in all my searching for info, that some people advise against betting against a certain league. I am curious as to why.
Great thread.
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I know this thread is a few weeks old, but I will be putting a few bucks on baseball myself this season and thought it had such good information that it was worth a bumping with a question.
What are the big differences between capping A.L. vs. N.L.? It seems, in all my searching for info, that some people advise against betting against a certain league. I am curious as to why.
And the weeks prior to the All-Star Break is the Interleague play..and I can recall getting f*cked in the ass during these weeks. The history between the 2 teams meeting up during IL Play is very foggy and the AL has stronger hitting, while the NL has stronger pitching.
Easiest money for me last year was Fading Pavano, Hughes, Igawa pitching..Gotta Love them Yankee Backers....
And Kelvim Escobar on the road....
I love betting on bases for the simple fact of 1st 5 Innings. Its SP vs. SP. Its a much easier and more accurate trend to cap over a 1H sports game. We all know most SP's only last 5 innings, so its a match in itself. Come the BullPen, thats when things get interesting.. (see DRays! LOL)
Bases I think is the best and easiest American sport to cap...Hands Down...
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NL uses designated hitters...
And the weeks prior to the All-Star Break is the Interleague play..and I can recall getting f*cked in the ass during these weeks. The history between the 2 teams meeting up during IL Play is very foggy and the AL has stronger hitting, while the NL has stronger pitching.
Easiest money for me last year was Fading Pavano, Hughes, Igawa pitching..Gotta Love them Yankee Backers....
And Kelvim Escobar on the road....
I love betting on bases for the simple fact of 1st 5 Innings. Its SP vs. SP. Its a much easier and more accurate trend to cap over a 1H sports game. We all know most SP's only last 5 innings, so its a match in itself. Come the BullPen, thats when things get interesting.. (see DRays! LOL)
Bases I think is the best and easiest American sport to cap...Hands Down...
Take me out to the ballgame!! Take me out to the crowd!!! Love betting baseball it was by far my most profitable sport to bet last year. Plus i just love the game!!
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Take me out to the ballgame!! Take me out to the crowd!!! Love betting baseball it was by far my most profitable sport to bet last year. Plus i just love the game!!
hey powercappers, you gonna be posting plays everyday come regular season? love what you, GH, and AF do for the forum.
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
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Quote Originally Posted by cogenman:
hey powercappers, you gonna be posting plays everyday come regular season? love what you, GH, and AF do for the forum.
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
Looking forward to it PC!
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Quote Originally Posted by powercapppers:
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
Baseball is by far the best sport. I hold allegiance to the NBA, but even though it is my original love, the league has lost some of its magic since the 90s. Baseball, however, is the purest sport. It's an artform balancing a handful of strategies simultaneously and simply a joy to watch.
As far as betting goes, you can't beat baseball because ...
1) The length of the season. Almost everyone goes Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for the NFL and all you get is about 17 cracks at it (minus playoffs.) What kind of betting season is that?! Baseball gives you six months and then the playoffs. I cannot even begin to describe to you what this means from a money making standpoint. Say you take an NFL expert who makes an average of 1 unit for every slate of games. He'll finish the season up around +20 units. Now consider someone with the same edge in MLB: He will make around +120 units. And this is a conservative estimate!
2) The daily grind. We all love second chances and that's exactly what baseball gives us. Screw up one day and you sleep it off for a chance to rebound the next day. Screw up a Sunday in football and you want to risk everything Monday and/or sob for the next six days.
3) Numbers heaven. Baseball, imo, is the most strategically intense game. If you don't factor for lineups, SP, bullpen, and defense, you will get screwed over at some point. But if you know how to compensate for all, you will be rewarded heavily.
4) The moneyline. Like many of you said earlier in this thread, you pick a winner. How much simpler can it get? In hoops, you're sweating bullets because you picked the Lakers not to cover -6 against Milwaukee but the Bucks won't stop intentionally fouling and suddenly the Lakers are up 10 and the game is over. This is bullshit. Sure, you should be able to account for it as a capper, but it doesn't fit in with the flow of the game. Yes, bullpens blow leads in baseball, but this is usually in line with how bad that bullpen has been performing.
There are many other reasons, but you get the idea.
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Baseball is by far the best sport. I hold allegiance to the NBA, but even though it is my original love, the league has lost some of its magic since the 90s. Baseball, however, is the purest sport. It's an artform balancing a handful of strategies simultaneously and simply a joy to watch.
As far as betting goes, you can't beat baseball because ...
1) The length of the season. Almost everyone goes Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for the NFL and all you get is about 17 cracks at it (minus playoffs.) What kind of betting season is that?! Baseball gives you six months and then the playoffs. I cannot even begin to describe to you what this means from a money making standpoint. Say you take an NFL expert who makes an average of 1 unit for every slate of games. He'll finish the season up around +20 units. Now consider someone with the same edge in MLB: He will make around +120 units. And this is a conservative estimate!
2) The daily grind. We all love second chances and that's exactly what baseball gives us. Screw up one day and you sleep it off for a chance to rebound the next day. Screw up a Sunday in football and you want to risk everything Monday and/or sob for the next six days.
3) Numbers heaven. Baseball, imo, is the most strategically intense game. If you don't factor for lineups, SP, bullpen, and defense, you will get screwed over at some point. But if you know how to compensate for all, you will be rewarded heavily.
4) The moneyline. Like many of you said earlier in this thread, you pick a winner. How much simpler can it get? In hoops, you're sweating bullets because you picked the Lakers not to cover -6 against Milwaukee but the Bucks won't stop intentionally fouling and suddenly the Lakers are up 10 and the game is over. This is bullshit. Sure, you should be able to account for it as a capper, but it doesn't fit in with the flow of the game. Yes, bullpens blow leads in baseball, but this is usually in line with how bad that bullpen has been performing.
There are many other reasons, but you get the idea.
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
0
Quote Originally Posted by powercapppers:
Yeah cogenman i'm going to try to post daily... I wish I were able to do Spring Training daily but this damn thing called work keeps getting in the way!!.. haha... I just started a new job this week and am a bit apprehensive to jump on covers.com my first week. Hopefully I can test the waters soon and maybe get a couple plays in here and there during Spring Training.
No worries though, once the regular season starts I will be posting a lot more.
Baseball is by far the best sport. I hold allegiance to the NBA, but even though it is my original love, the league has lost some of its magic since the 90s. Baseball, however, is the purest sport. It's an artform balancing a handful of strategies simultaneously and simply a joy to watch.
As far as betting goes, you can't beat baseball because ...
1) The length of the season. Almost everyone goes Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for the NFL and all you get is about 17 cracks at it (minus playoffs.) What kind of betting season is that?! Baseball gives you six months and then the playoffs. I cannot even begin to describe to you what this means from a money making standpoint. Say you take an NFL expert who makes an average of 1 unit for every slate of games. He'll finish the season up around +20 units. Now consider someone with the same edge in MLB: He will make around +120 units. And this is a conservative estimate!
2) The daily grind. We all love second chances and that's exactly what baseball gives us. Screw up one day and you sleep it off for a chance to rebound the next day. Screw up a Sunday in football and you want to risk everything Monday and/or sob for the next six days.
3) Numbers heaven. Baseball, imo, is the most strategically intense game. If you don't factor for lineups, SP, bullpen, and defense, you will get screwed over at some point. But if you know how to compensate for all, you will be rewarded heavily.
4) The moneyline. Like many of you said earlier in this thread, you pick a winner. How much simpler can it get? In hoops, you're sweating bullets because you picked the Lakers not to cover -6 against Milwaukee but the Bucks won't stop intentionally fouling and suddenly the Lakers are up 10 and the game is over. This is bullshit. Sure, you should be able to account for it as a capper, but it doesn't fit in with the flow of the game. Yes, bullpens blow leads in baseball, but this is usually in line with how bad that bullpen has been performing.
There are many other reasons, but you get the idea.
As someone who is awaiting my first spring putting loot down, this post just sold me
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Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:
Baseball is by far the best sport. I hold allegiance to the NBA, but even though it is my original love, the league has lost some of its magic since the 90s. Baseball, however, is the purest sport. It's an artform balancing a handful of strategies simultaneously and simply a joy to watch.
As far as betting goes, you can't beat baseball because ...
1) The length of the season. Almost everyone goes Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for the NFL and all you get is about 17 cracks at it (minus playoffs.) What kind of betting season is that?! Baseball gives you six months and then the playoffs. I cannot even begin to describe to you what this means from a money making standpoint. Say you take an NFL expert who makes an average of 1 unit for every slate of games. He'll finish the season up around +20 units. Now consider someone with the same edge in MLB: He will make around +120 units. And this is a conservative estimate!
2) The daily grind. We all love second chances and that's exactly what baseball gives us. Screw up one day and you sleep it off for a chance to rebound the next day. Screw up a Sunday in football and you want to risk everything Monday and/or sob for the next six days.
3) Numbers heaven. Baseball, imo, is the most strategically intense game. If you don't factor for lineups, SP, bullpen, and defense, you will get screwed over at some point. But if you know how to compensate for all, you will be rewarded heavily.
4) The moneyline. Like many of you said earlier in this thread, you pick a winner. How much simpler can it get? In hoops, you're sweating bullets because you picked the Lakers not to cover -6 against Milwaukee but the Bucks won't stop intentionally fouling and suddenly the Lakers are up 10 and the game is over. This is bullshit. Sure, you should be able to account for it as a capper, but it doesn't fit in with the flow of the game. Yes, bullpens blow leads in baseball, but this is usually in line with how bad that bullpen has been performing.
There are many other reasons, but you get the idea.
As someone who is awaiting my first spring putting loot down, this post just sold me
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