Blue Jays -103 Risking 1.03 unit to win 1 unit Right off the bat, you see the Red Sox and Buchholz as a dog and some may think to jump on that. Right now, I see 73% on the Sox, but the line has made them favorites. Well, I don't need to explain how good Buchholz has been. He's gone 7, 8 and 7.1 innings in his last 3 starts against the Angels, Tigers and Yankees. So he's certainly pulling his own. Marcum is coming off a very poor start against the Yanks where he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings and took the loss. But that was in the Bronx. He's a much better pitcher in Toronto where he has an ERA of 2.30 and has only given up 1 run in each of his last 3 home starts. Home team. Low line. Against the public. Even pitchers. Better offense. I'll go with that.
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Blue Jays -103 Risking 1.03 unit to win 1 unit Right off the bat, you see the Red Sox and Buchholz as a dog and some may think to jump on that. Right now, I see 73% on the Sox, but the line has made them favorites. Well, I don't need to explain how good Buchholz has been. He's gone 7, 8 and 7.1 innings in his last 3 starts against the Angels, Tigers and Yankees. So he's certainly pulling his own. Marcum is coming off a very poor start against the Yanks where he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings and took the loss. But that was in the Bronx. He's a much better pitcher in Toronto where he has an ERA of 2.30 and has only given up 1 run in each of his last 3 home starts. Home team. Low line. Against the public. Even pitchers. Better offense. I'll go with that.
Pirates +184 Risking 1 unit to win 1.84 units I know it's the Padres but did anyone see McDonald's Pirates' debut? 6 innings of 4-hit shutout ball against the Rockies. Very impressive. Maybe there is less pressure on him now knowing that he HAS a spot in the rotation and doesn't have to worry about impressing anyone to hopefully be the 5th starter like he had to do with the Dodgers. McDonald's only good performance with the Dodgers this season was in San Diego where he pitched 2 innings of no hit ball in a relief role. I know this isn't the way to approach this seeing that they only have 13 road wins and they don't HAVE to win, but this will be the best chance in taking a game this series. Correia has had a bad season but has pitched well of late as he has a 3.10 in his last 4 starts going 3-1. And playing at Petco will help anyone starting pitcher. Basically...I think this line is just way too high. I know it's the Padres v Pirates, but Petco Park makes the playing field a little bit more even and I think they have a shot to steal 1 here.
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Pirates +184 Risking 1 unit to win 1.84 units I know it's the Padres but did anyone see McDonald's Pirates' debut? 6 innings of 4-hit shutout ball against the Rockies. Very impressive. Maybe there is less pressure on him now knowing that he HAS a spot in the rotation and doesn't have to worry about impressing anyone to hopefully be the 5th starter like he had to do with the Dodgers. McDonald's only good performance with the Dodgers this season was in San Diego where he pitched 2 innings of no hit ball in a relief role. I know this isn't the way to approach this seeing that they only have 13 road wins and they don't HAVE to win, but this will be the best chance in taking a game this series. Correia has had a bad season but has pitched well of late as he has a 3.10 in his last 4 starts going 3-1. And playing at Petco will help anyone starting pitcher. Basically...I think this line is just way too high. I know it's the Padres v Pirates, but Petco Park makes the playing field a little bit more even and I think they have a shot to steal 1 here.
Mariners +106 Risking 1 unit to win 1.06 units So much wrong with this line. Perfect Game Pitcher Dallas Braden, whose pitching decent lately is a small favorite to Lucas French and the piss poor Mariners while trying to avoid the sweep? Just seems fishy. Anyway...French is coming off his first home start of the season and it was a beaut. 8 innings of 1 run ball. It was against the Royals, but the A's fit the bill as well with the weak offense. The Mariners have played well lately. They've won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 (all at home) while the A's 2-3 in their last 5. Braden has been decent since coming off the DL. Not stellar, but not awful. It's highlighted by his complete game 2 run win against the White Sox. But now...he's coming off a 4 run, 6 inning loss to the Rangers. Pitching at Safeco makes me suspect that he'll pitch a good game, but maybe not a great game as he has a 4.40 road ERA this season. But what is a team 10 games under .500 on the road doing being a favorite ON the road. The Mariners are 2 games under .500 at home but as I said, this line is just fishy. 88% are on the A's yet the line has gone down. It's saying something.
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Mariners +106 Risking 1 unit to win 1.06 units So much wrong with this line. Perfect Game Pitcher Dallas Braden, whose pitching decent lately is a small favorite to Lucas French and the piss poor Mariners while trying to avoid the sweep? Just seems fishy. Anyway...French is coming off his first home start of the season and it was a beaut. 8 innings of 1 run ball. It was against the Royals, but the A's fit the bill as well with the weak offense. The Mariners have played well lately. They've won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 (all at home) while the A's 2-3 in their last 5. Braden has been decent since coming off the DL. Not stellar, but not awful. It's highlighted by his complete game 2 run win against the White Sox. But now...he's coming off a 4 run, 6 inning loss to the Rangers. Pitching at Safeco makes me suspect that he'll pitch a good game, but maybe not a great game as he has a 4.40 road ERA this season. But what is a team 10 games under .500 on the road doing being a favorite ON the road. The Mariners are 2 games under .500 at home but as I said, this line is just fishy. 88% are on the A's yet the line has gone down. It's saying something.
Dodgers +121 Risking 1 unit to win 1.21 units Another day...another weird line for the Phillies. Last night was too low. Tonight is too high. Why is it high? Because people are buying into Roy Oswalt. Sure Oswalt is worth this line. If you have Utley, Howard and Victorino in your lineup. Also add that Polanco is questionable and you have a ton of problems. The Dodgers are on a 3 game winning streak while the Phillies, who were hot, haven't been pitching all that well and their 5 game winning streak has turned into 1 win in their last 3. Maybe the loss of Howard is finally getting to them. On to starting pitching. Oswalt had a good start in his last outing, but now he's making his first home start with his new club. And it is known that he doesn't like pitching at Citizen's Bank Park. There may be some extra adrenaline as the City of Brotherly Love welcomes him with open arms, Billingsley is the guy who will oppose him. It's been a below average season for him but he's got himself straightened out. After 3 straight shutouts the Padres got him for 3 runs in 6 innings to give him a loss in his last start. The problem though is that he's faced the Giants twice and Padres twice in his last 4 starts (during his hot streak). But even though they weren't top notch offenses, maybe he's regained his confidence. This is a huge matchup for both teams but the deciding factor is the 77% on the Phillies with hardly any line movement.
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Dodgers +121 Risking 1 unit to win 1.21 units Another day...another weird line for the Phillies. Last night was too low. Tonight is too high. Why is it high? Because people are buying into Roy Oswalt. Sure Oswalt is worth this line. If you have Utley, Howard and Victorino in your lineup. Also add that Polanco is questionable and you have a ton of problems. The Dodgers are on a 3 game winning streak while the Phillies, who were hot, haven't been pitching all that well and their 5 game winning streak has turned into 1 win in their last 3. Maybe the loss of Howard is finally getting to them. On to starting pitching. Oswalt had a good start in his last outing, but now he's making his first home start with his new club. And it is known that he doesn't like pitching at Citizen's Bank Park. There may be some extra adrenaline as the City of Brotherly Love welcomes him with open arms, Billingsley is the guy who will oppose him. It's been a below average season for him but he's got himself straightened out. After 3 straight shutouts the Padres got him for 3 runs in 6 innings to give him a loss in his last start. The problem though is that he's faced the Giants twice and Padres twice in his last 4 starts (during his hot streak). But even though they weren't top notch offenses, maybe he's regained his confidence. This is a huge matchup for both teams but the deciding factor is the 77% on the Phillies with hardly any line movement.
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