Today Is Saturday, And WTF Am I Doing!?!?!

I just loaded $1,000 into my account. I guess it's a birthday present to myself (Birthday was Thursday). I know, for a fact, that I'll kick myself for this in a few days. Oh well. For what it's worth, I won't be doing a writeup for every game. I'm only doing it for those that I like. I'm willing to field questions but doing lengthy writeups for every matchup is kinda stressful.

Athletics -108
Risking 1.08 units to win 1 unit
How about Rich Harden. 7 innings of 1 run ball in Anaheim in his return. What a gritty performance in a 2-1 win. That was his 2nd best start of the season. His first was a 7 innings shutout in Oakland to get the win. But wait a second. He had a 5.26 ERA in his 4 rehab starts. Where did that come from? Running off adrenaline in a pretty important matchup between the only team that could possibly stop the Rangers from winning the West? Certainly a possible letdown spot for him here. Here's the main concern with him. He average 5.6 walks per 9 innings this season. That doesn't equal to winning baseball. His road/home splits are pretty bad too. While he has a respectable 3.99 ERA at home, which is hard to do for some in Arlington, even with his early season struggles, he has a 6.12 ERA on the road. Oakland is a big  pitcher's park, so many that will help him, like it did earlier this season, but only time will tell there. On to Gio Gonzalez. He has a 3.27 ERA. It's mainly that high because the Yankees came to town twice and put up a 5 spot in both games. I am willing to put my faith in Gio at home. I'll say that now. Speaking of home...that's where the A's have won. Their 32-24 record shows that. And they're gritty against the Rangers this season. 4-6 is not a horrible record. Especially against a team 19 games over .500. You have to date back 5 series' ago to find the last time the A's lost a home series/lost back to back home games. It was early July against the Yankees. Since then, they're 8-4 at home, winning all series' 2-1 against the Royals, White Sox, Boston and Anaheim. Not the worst of competitors. The Rangers are on a 4-3 run on their current road trip. To give them credit though, they're on an 18-8 run on the road in their last 8 series + Game 1 v Oakland. So...after throwing all those stats at you, I'll tell you this. I'm trying a new thing. It's called looking at the line and finding what's wrong with it. I'm starting to ask questions since stats/pitching/everything else apparently makes us losing gamblers. Why are the Rangers, who are 19 games OVER .500 with one of the best lineups in baseball, underdogged to the Oakland Athletics, regardless of the fact that they're in Oakland? The A's are 27-16 when favored this season and 22-12 when favored at home. I'll take those chances when it's this low a line and expect a "public burial" with a lot of people taking the Rangers.

*Note...this is expecting the A's to lose Game 1 as it's 5-1 in the bottom of the 8th. I do not expect them to win this game as Lee will probably go the distance.

I may have more...still looking the card over.

BOL All. Have A Great Day.

Phillies -121
Risking 2.42 units to win 2 units
Come on fellas...the Mets proved last night why they're not worth shit on the road. That loss bumped them to 21-36 on the road while the Phillies are now 33-17. Johan gets the nod to stop the bleeding for the Mets. He started off the season with a great start then a piss poor start. Then he strung a few great starts together and BAM...he gives up 10 in Philly and he starts to backtrack for 2 starts. Then he's dominant again. Then terrible again, then dominant again. See a pattern here? He's coming off 2 non quality starts. In his defense though, he was pretty dominant against the Braves aside from a few mistakes. The problem is that he was kept in to throw 115 pitches and he seems to have had problems bouncing back after throwing that many pitches. He has an ERA of 7.40 in starts after he's thrown 114 or more pitches. Note that it's inflated a bit because one of those starts were where he gave up 10 in Philly. So make this 4 starts, 3 non quality and 1 solid start following games where he's thrown 114 or more. This will be his first time facing the Phillies since that little outburst they had on him. I'm sure he'll come in with adrenaline but will that be enough? Will his 2.98 road ERA be enough? Will the fact that the Mets average only 3.2 runs per game in his starts hurt him? Or does the fact that the 3.2 runs per game goes down to 2.5 when he's on the road. Maybe the Mets being 3-9 will send a message. The Mets only hit .233 v lefties on the road this season and only .196 in their last 10 against lefties. Hamels, is indeed, a lefty. Now, he's coming off a few rough starts, like Johan only not as bad, but he has the better offense on his side and the fact that he's home. Also, the fact that he goes deep into games really adds to this play. He's gone at least 7 innings in 9 of his last 11 starts. And while he has 4 straight no decisions, the Phillies have won his last 5 starts but they are only 5-4 in his home starts on the season. It's certainly not his fault though as he has a 2.90 ERA at home this season. The Mets have been just playing horrible baseball lately. Remember when they were having a promising season? Where did they go? What happened? They're 8-19 in their last 27 starts with just 1 series win (at home against St. Louis). The Phillies are on a different streak. They've won 13 of their last 15. And, even without Howard, Utley and Victorino, this is still a much better offensive ballclub who went into Flushing at the end of May and got swept by a score of 16-0. Maybe not on paper, but compared to what was performing back then. The Phillies are raking against lefties lately as they've hit them at a .329 clip in their last 10 games. Add the fact that they're 32-17 at home and we have a nice, small lined, play.

Side Stat...

Pavano is coming off a start where he gave up 4 runs. In starts after giving up 4 or more runs this season, the Twins are 3-1 and he has a 2.98 ERA and has gone at least 7 innings (8 twice).

Revenge Alert:

Josh Johnson gave up 5 runs in his last start. The last time he gave up 4 or more was in the Season Opener. Look what has happened since.

Happy belated birthday

Good luck my friend.

 

GO A's

on the same two..

just sed the same thing about oak..i wud expect them to be dogged at home tom too..

phils opened at -130 verse johan..the phils are banged up and are playing with a make shift lineup...the braves were just -140 verse johan and they own the best home record in baseball...so -130 is def strong for the phils...the line is already down to -120..i can see the mets as a public dog tom...johans 3-5 as an away dog this year..the mets just had the life sucked out of them in that 8th inning..i really like the phils tom...

happy belated  as well

have u looked at the bravos? thats a really strong line verse cain tomorrow...

matt cain is 1-3 this year as an away dog and is coming off 124 pitch outing last start...

Happy late birthday

HAPPY BIRTHDAY......

White Sox -1.5 +100
Risking 2 unit to win 2 unit
I'm pretty sure that not even Buck Showalter can fix the mess the O's have in Kevin Millwood. He's given up 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts. He's given up at least 4 in 10 of his last 11 starts. That's an 8.84 ERA. Do you know what that means? He's given up 56 runs in his last 57 innings pitched!!!!!!!! Don't the O's have another soon to be all-star calibur pitcher in their system? Bring him up or something. This is getting ridiculous. Talk about opposites attract. He's facing Gavin Floyd. In HIS last 11 starts, he has an ERA of 1.06. That's insane. That is 9 runs in his last 76.1 innings pitched!!!!!!!!! I'll give the O's and Showalter a bit of credit. They're offense has been playing with more heart. Their bullpen...not so much. Aside from Friday's game, that bullpen wasn't exactly in check. They've given up 8 runs in their last 9 innings pitched. And in a game where Millwood starts...you may need the pen to stop the bleeding, although it may be over by then. But even though the O's have won a season high 4 straight games (that's right, their longest winning streak this season is 4 which they've done three times), the Sox are still hot. They're 9-3 in their last 12 and we all know how good they have played. Both on offense and in the pitching. It's been phenominal. The line is right but too pricey for me. The runline should be good. In the 13 loses the O's have with Millwood on the mound, only 2 of those games were decided by 1 run. Also...add that he's given up 1.7 homers per game this season and is facing a team who loves to hit the long ball in a hitters park...it may just be a bad situation for Millwood.

Sparky, does it bother you that Gonzalez has lost 10-1 and 3-1 to Texas already this year?

I'm going to the game so I'm gonna stay away and just cheer for the Braves. The line doesn't look right. But like I said, I'm just gonna stay away.

you think its too high right?

have fun at the game..

and hes still a favorite?? texas looks way toooo easy...its oak or nothing..

 

sorry sparky know its your thread..but figured id do the honors for you...

 

to loading up the account

Not really. 1 of those starts he only gave up 1 run in 6. The other one was rougher as he gave up 4 in 4. But both starts were in Arlington. Can't really have 2 parks that are so different when comparing The Coliseum and Rangers' Ballpark.

Yea. Maybe they're begging for $ on Cain. There is certainly value in him though.

Happy Birthday for Thursday. BOL with the reload. 

certainly does look like its begging for cain action..

Im with you on the CWS. I will be playing them for the first 5 innings. Millwood should be good for at least 5 runs in 5 and the way Floyd has been pitching the O's will be happy with 5 hits in 5 innings.

Astros +124
Risking 1 unit to win 1.24 units
The Astros have been rolling. Their pitching has been stellar (for the most part) and their offense has been awsome. Jeff Bagwell must be a miracle worked. They're 8-3 in their last 11 while the Brewers are only 5-6 in their last 11. The Astros just swept them in Houston last week and the Brewers took Game 1 of this series as they're looking to exchange the favor. Myers is pitching for Houston and who would have expected such a good season from him? He's been more than expected and he's been even better of late. He has a 1.88 ERA in his last 6 starts and the Stros have won his last 5 starts. His ERA on the road is 3.81 though. His home ERA is 2.29. So those splits may help towards the reason why the Astros are bigger dogs than they should be. Wolf's pitching for the Brewers and that was a question mark for a bit as he was taken out of his last start after getting hit on the wrist against these Astros. But, before that, he was pitching 6 innings of 1 run ball, which was his 2nd consecutive quality start. For those who like trends...he has not had 3 straight quality starts all season. Actually...he's 1-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his 3 start following 2 straight quality starts. Simply put...he's bad more times than he's good. It may not be smart, but I'm throwing out most stats for the Astros from earlier this season. They're a completely different team. Have a much better hitting coach. And I just think they're a different team. I think there is a ton of value in this matchup and this is certainly the best live dog on the board imo.

Side Stat...

Rodrigo Lopez, as does Kevin Millwood, allow 1.7 home runs per game this season. Which is the most in the Majors. So with the game being played in Arizona...I'm sure we can expect an Adrian Gonzalez homer as well as possibly another.