Today Is Monday, And This Is The Day We've Been Waiting For

1-0 +2 units

Got the easy over last night and I'm just getting started. But before I do...I'd like you to read this...

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=100692139&page=1

That basically sums up everything you need to know about the way I go about things here. This is the day I've been waiting for since November. This will be the best day ever...or at least I hope so. So...Anyway, on to today.

Phillies -1.5 -115
Risking 2.3 units to win 2 units
Lets see. Halladay won't give up a run here. I'm almost 100% certain in that to be honest. This game will be like facing a little league squad compared to what he's used to. No disrespect to the Nats...but we know they're not the best team in the league and while they have hitters like Zimmerman, Dunn and even Nyjer...Halladay is just too good. He'll be the CY Young of the National League. Win over 20 games. And lead that team to another National League East Title. Enough about that though. I could beat it to death but they're really isn't a point. John Lannan was incredible at home last season. He had a 2.62 ERA but he was only 5-3 in 17 starts but the Nats were 8-9 in his home starts overall. He also faced the Phillies 4 times and the Phillies won all those games by at least 4 runs while Lannan didn't have a quality start in any of them. Overall...the Phillies hit .326 in 138 at bats with 10 homers and 21 RBIs.
Rollins      .250 (6-24)  1 HR...4 RBI
Victorino   .318 (7-22)
Howard     .182 (4-22)  1 HR...2 RBI
Utley         .476 (10-21) 2 HR...6 RBI
Werth        .235 (4-17)  3 HR...3 RBI
Ruiz          .273 (3-11)   1 HR...3 RBI
Ibanez        .700 (7-10)  2 HR...2 RBI

Not much experience for the Nats lineup...but this is what I got.

Pudge            .379 (11-29)   2 HR...5 RBI
Kennedy         .296 (8-27)    0 HR...2 RBI
Guzman          .278 (5-18)    0 HR...2 RBI
Dunn              .429 (3-7)      1 HR...2 RBI
Zimmerman  .167 (1-6)     0 HR...1 RBI

There really isn't anything left to say. The Phillies should come out strong looking to get back to where they were the past 2 seasons. Halladay will prove his dominance and the Phillies will put a strangle hold on the Nats early and often.

More to come...but going to split it up.

BOL All. Have A Great Season.

 

Good luck with that.... Lannan has struggled badly with the Phills

Lannan 0-6 lifetime vs the Phils. Yikes.

 

Already in.

Although he wasn't great, Lannan certainly wasn't terrible against the Phils last year. Decidedly mediocre is how it looked to me. Lots of expectations for the Phils and Halladay. They'll probably live up to it but the +176 was enough to sway me to the Nats.......

 

GL this season Sparky

Marlins/Mets Under (1st Half) ?
No line yet but this is a solid play. We learned with the Yankees and Sox...bullpens can't always be trusted. Lets start off with the Mets not having Beltran, Reyes and Murphy. That's 3/8 of their offense gone right there. CitiField is a pitchers park and I think both of these guys will be strong in the opener. I'm not going to break down the Mets v Johnson stats too much because there really isn't much there to break down. Francoeur hits .318 in 22 at bats against him. Wright hits .187 in 18 at bats. Tatis hits .667 in 12 at bats against him and Castillo hits .333 in 9 at bats. Nothing eyepopping because those 4 guys combine for 1 home run and 6 RBIs. But I really didn't expect much from offense from them anyway. And now...it's the Marlins v Santana where the stats really stick out. In 131 at bats against Santana the Marlins have a batting average of .153 and an OBP of .181 with only 3 homers and 9 RBIs. That's INSANE. I'll break this one down a bit more because of how bad it really is.
Cantu        .240 (6-25)  1 HR...2 RBI
Helms       .176 (3-17)   0 HR...3 RBI
Uggla        .059 (1-17)   1 HR...1 RBI
Ross         .188 (3-16)   1 HR...2 RBI
HanRam    .133 (2-15)
Bonifacio    .083 (1-12)
Paulino      .200 (2-10)   0 HR...1 RBI
Maybin      .286 (2-7)

On top of all that...Santana only has 5 walks with 50 strikeouts. Over the past 3 seasons...Santana has a 2.47 ERA in day games. Oh...and a 1.67 ERA against the Marlins in 43 innings. Johnson isn't as good during the day with his 3.53 ERA from 07-09...but it's still not bad. I guess I'll be expecting a 3.5 run line but that is perfectly fine by me.

Good Luck Sparky and Congratulations on tonight your 1-0 and my 2-0.  I have to say you are putting alot of stock in the Phils and Howard and sometimes Utley struggle against southpaws.  Dunn hits Halladay over .400 against Halladay and as you saw w/ Beckett tonight when your stuff moves and your control is not quite as honed in as it will be towards the end of the season you end up watching them fly all over the ballpark and getting knocked out after 4 innings and hate to say it but I rather ride the Nats pen than the meligned unit the Phillies will have out there.  BTW you are funny about Halladay winning a CY Young almost as funny as the so called experts on MLB Network who expects Halladay to pitch more than 9 complete games.  The CY Young will not be going to a 15 game winner w/ an era slightly under 4.00 and thats what I think the Phillies get out of thier new ace.

Lannan is a good pitcher...but the Phillies just beat him. The Nats are still rebuilding. They are actually in that stage right before rebuilding. And while the expectations may be high for Halladay...he's went into Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park and shut them. He is a cool, calm and collected guy. He'll dominate in his opener. Just like Lee did. But...of course that's just my opinion.

BOL to you this season as well.

Sparky, should be a pitching duel like it has been all last season between Santana and Johnson but with the lack of bats for the mets, you gotta love the fish.  And for the Phillies play, I still can't believe their only -200 when you look at Lannans stats against the phillies combined with Roy Halladay's debut tommorw.  I mean were talking about the worst team in baseball going at arguably the best team in baseball or NL for that matter...

They do sometimes struggle against lefties...but that lineup is so loaded, that they can afford off nights from some guys. And yes...Dunn does it Halladay well. But 7 at bats isn't a big enough sample size to make a pick with (not saying that's how you're doing it...just saying). And I respectfully disagree with you about Halladay. I personally don't know how you can have a guy who consistantly has an ERA in the 2's and 3's all of a sudden go to 4 when he gets a free out every 9 batters instead of 20+ homers from the prototypical DH. The Nats, Marlins, Braves and Mets don't really compare to the lineups of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Orioles. And while the AL East is all hitters parks...Citizens Bank Park is the only hitters park in the NL East. He'll have an incredible season. I can't see it any other way. He's the best pitcher in baseball and he's now in an environment that is even better for him.

Not really though. Because the Mets still have Wright and Bay. No slouches. While HanRam may be better than both of those guys...his surrounding cast isn't. No more than 2-0 will be the score either way going into the 6th inning. Or at least that's how I see it. And I agree with you and the Phillies. I know for sure though that the line would be -250 at the least if this game was in Philly. I'll take that line anyday. I won't take "value" if I don't think a team has a chance in the world to win. Sure...it will cost me some times...but it's just how I go.

 Looking forward to all your MLB betting analysis especially your hitter vs. pitcher stats AWESOME stuff

 Hailing from North Texas, what is your outlook for the little red shoed Rangers. Everybody's hoping for playoffs this year but we need sale to Greenburg's group to be finalized to REALLY be optomistic. I dunno about our rotation but I really like our chances with Feldman tomorrow with all the positive LOVE in the air, albeit for one day at least. I can give you any local feedback if and when  interested.

HAVE a GREAT YEAR!!!!

P.s. great opening summary, very well stated

Stat:

In 135 at bats against Carpenter...the Reds have a .215 batting average and a .237 OBP. Also...they have 0 homers and 9 RBIs

Hernandez  .160 (4-25)     2 RBI
Phillips       .211 (4-19)     5 RBI
Cabrera       .200 (3-15)
Rolen         .273 (3-11)     1 RBI
Dickerson   .500 (5-10)
Votto          .375 (3-8)
Bruce         .125 (1-8)       1 RBI

3 walks and 27 strikeouts.

No interest in the game though.

I like the Rangers' bullpen a LOT. And their rotation is pretty solid too. Their offense doesn't even need to be talked about. I think they'll be in the race longer than last season but I think they come short to the Mariners. Even though Lee is on the DL now...I think he'll come back strong and help this team greatly. I think Hunter still being out is hard. And I don't know what to expect from Harden. And then Holland should be in the majors imo. I like Wilson's transition to the rotation as well. Their offense will win them games even when their pitching is flat. That's obvious. But I don't need to be telling you this stuff. You probably know more than I do about your team. With that being said...what is Neftali Feliz' role? Setup man? And how long do they plan on keeping him where they're putting him?

Hope you have a profitable and entertaining season.

Feliz is starting in pen but he needs some work on his other pitches. They are really concerned about him relying too much on his heat. They are worried about him being overexposed too. He needs to learn to take something off his fastball to REALLY be effective. He has been hit alot in spring training. I think they would like to see him develop like CJ (he's now using three pitches) and be a STARTER but you can't do that now with his limited arsenal. They are really worried about back to back days pitching too  because he's so young(especially in the brain Harden really worries us but hopefully LEWIS can mature back into MLB this year Holland has a great upside and I REALLY think VLADY can be a monster bat FOR us this year not AGAINST as he was for Halos. The  heat is what really wears TX down in the dog days of summer, if only we had a lid on Ballpark like Jerry's world has next door.

Hope to meet Yankees in playoffs come October

Braves -125
Risking 2.5 units to win 2 units
I think this will be the start of a great season for the Braves and the start of another disapointing season for the Cubbies. I actually have the Braves to win the Wild Card because they're pitching is just that good. We start off with Lowe though. I don't know if this was planned, but I thought Lowe moved down out of that "ACE" spot on this team. I thought it was passed on to Jurrjens. Anyway...Lowe was said to have a bad season last year. I don't see that. He had a really good season but he was basically the same as Bronson Arroyo. He pitches tons of quality starts but every now and again he gives up those 6+ run games and his ERA skyrockets. I don't see him giving up 6 runs here. The Cubs don't have good stats against him. Everyone but Lee is below average.
Soriano    .250 (14-56)    3 HR...5 RBI
Lee          .400 (12-30)    1 HR...5 RBI
Ramirez   .154 (2-13)
Theroit     .167 (2-12)
Nady        .200 (2-10)      1 HR...2 RBI
Soto        .400 (2-5)

Now the Braves don't hammer Zambrano either. But it's a little better.

McLouth    .208 (5-24)   0 HR...4 RBI
Chipper     .261 (6-23)    1 HR...2 RBI
McCann    .583 (7-12)    0 HR...4 RBI
Glaus        .300 (3-10     2 HR...5 RBI
Escobar     .000 (0-6)

The 1 concern I have with the Braves is Lowe's 5.74 ERA in day games last season. But his 2.46 ERA in 33 innings over the past 3 seasons against the Cubs makes me a little less queezy. Big Z had a 4.46 ERA in day games last season by the way. I can't wait to see Jason Heyward play in this one. Now that will be exciting to see him take cuts that actually count. You can bank on it that Turner will be rocking. This is the final Opening Day for Bobby Cox. I think it will be a great day for the fans as many people have high expectations for these Bravos.

Thanks for the info. If Feliz can find something to go with his heater and then his changeup (how much of a difference are those 2?) than he could be very key to their future. And I agree with Vladdy. If he does what he can do and Hamilton wasn't just a 1 year fluke and can get over his injuries than they can very well make a strong run at the AL West crown. But they need his production.

Best of luck this season, Sparky!

Chi.Sox -1.5 +133
Risking 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Simply a fade of Westbrook who is making his first Regular Season start since May 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. I think the Sox should have a great season this year (even though I'm picking the Twins to win the Central). I think their pitching is filthy and if their hitting comes together...they will be really good. The addition of Pierre is a really good one imo and putting Beckham behind him could be a very solid 1-2 punch at the top of that lineup. No doubt about that. I see Buehrle coming out strong in the home opener but I really don't have that much stats supporting this play. I actually have the Indians being the worst team in the majors this season. Or at least the American League. Their pitching is questionable from the 1-5 starts to everyone in the bullpen. That's why I'm only putting 1 unit on this play because I don't have too much to support it. And my play is being made expecting Westbrook to get lit up. Hence...the -1.5 line.

You too bro.

white sox and braves playing for it all at the end sparky....good luck on your picks this season

Blue Jays/Rangers Over 9 -105
Risking 2.1 units to win 2 unit
Marcum is the first Jays pitcher to be the Opening Day Starter since 2002 whose name wasn't Roy Halladay. This is Marcum's first regular season start since September 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. So now he comes back...not slowly...but expecting to be the ace of this staff and take over where Halladay left off? That seems like a lot of pressure for this young guy. He's got great stuff as he showed when he was healthy...but maybe they're throwing him into the fire a bit too quickly asking for all this. However...there really isn't other option aside from Marcum. Also...some Rangers actually have good stats against him. Vlad hits .308 in 13 ABs with 2 homers and 5 RBIs. Young hits .400 with 3 RBIs in 10 ABs. And that's it. But it's a smaller sample size for the rest. And...this game is being played in Arlington. You know what that means? Feldman won't pitch that great.  He had a 4.71 ERA at home last season and a 4.95 ERA there in 2008. He obviously doesn't care for that stadium that much. So...I think this game could easily go over 9. The Jays' lineup isn't really that bad. Lind and Hill are solid. Ruiz can rake. I actually expect Wells to have a serviceable season...but what do I know? Will Snider make a name for himself now? I guess we'll see. But the Rangers could very well score 7-8 runs themselves. I'll be watching this game for sure.

That would certainly be a fun world series. I personally don't see it that way ...but that would be some very strong 4 man rotations they have there.