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POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 12:41 AM ET #176

Quote Originally Posted by ICU:

Where would i find the top 30 pitchers for 2011 season? Looks good today bro you got 3 posted! Hou ,Az ,Atl

Go to usatoday.com and look for jeff sagarin MLB ratings under sports >>>MLB

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 1:31 AM ET #177

Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Picks for Tuesday should be:

Houston +120 +22.80

Arizona +144 +27.36

Atlanta +107 +20.33

+70.49

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 1:35 AM ET #178

Bankroll is now $1608.49

Wager amount for Wednesday will be $20

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 1:45 AM ET #179

Record after 2 days is 3-3 / +$8.49

Wednesdays plays are:

Mil/Phi under 7.5 $22

SF/Col under 8.5 $22

Houston +136 $20

Minnesota +125 $20

LAA/Tex under 8 $22

BroadwayBob

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 9:53 AM ET #180

Scratch Twins - Britton moves up to 19

BroadwayBob

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 10:47 AM ET #181

3. Eliminate all games going up against top 20 pitchers according to ERA.
Does this count even if the dog has the top 20? As is the case with Pirates today. (Morton 17 - Nolasco 42)

BLACKnYELLOW27

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 5

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 10:52 AM ET #182

In the Baseball Underdog System described in an article on VI mentioned earlier in this thread it says, "eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row".

Maglio uses the rule "Do not bet against any 3 game or more streak whether it is winning or losing"

Which criteria are you using poizeniv?

dawniewags

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 2524

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 11:03 AM ET #183

dsagrree on no dogs higher than +150

i won on so many huge dogs past two years it was unreal

+310 +295 +290 +285 +260 +210 +195 +175 + 165 +160

and each one more than once YOU have to go with the streaks thats all when a team is winning stay on them when they are losing go against them

rember the O's back in 80's what was that record setting losing streak 25 str8 games ?

KC couple years agao ok it was few years agao LOST 17 str8 games mid season

curiousone

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 257

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 11:43 AM ET #184

Quote Originally Posted by dawniewags:

dsagrree on no dogs higher than +150

i won on so many huge dogs past two years it was unreal

+310 +295 +290 +285 +260 +210 +195 +175 + 165 +160

and each one more than once YOU have to go with the streaks thats all when a team is winning stay on them when they are losing go against them

rember the O's back in 80's what was that record setting losing streak 25 str8 games ?

KC couple years agao ok it was few years agao LOST 17 str8 games mid season

How many losses in a row before you start betting against a team?

How many wins in a row before you start betting with a team?

Do you consider the line on the game? For example, do you take any play over certain odds, or skip/fade any play below certain odds? Let's say that you liked a team that has won X games in a row, but on their next game they are -275, do you still back them or skip that game?

odieo

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 86

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 3:03 PM ET #185

Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Record after 2 days is 3-3 / +$8.49

Wednesdays plays are:

Mil/Phi under 7.5 $22

SF/Col under 8.5 $22

Houston +136 $20

Minnesota +125 $20

LAA/Tex under 8 $22

long time lurker....been following this thread - POIZEN, why did you not list WASH and SD (gm. 1) as plays? Am I missing something here? According to my understanding they both qualify. Just wondering because I also see some games tonight that I think qualify.

trehoops

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 417

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 3:21 PM ET #186

Quote Originally Posted by Maglio:

Ok I will answer one post as my wife just went in the shower lol. Someone asked why this works.

Well betting on just underdogs alone in baseball almost works by itself. 43-44 percent I believe is the rate in which an underdog hits in baseball over the course of a random season. By tweaking and eliminating some of the dogs with the key criteria we move our chances up into the 47-49 percent range which is all we need to turn a profit as we are only betting on underdogs.

Patience and money management I cannot stress enough. Find your unit size and stick to it.

TURNING A PROFIT IS ONE THING; MAKING 70-80K ON $50 BETS IS UNTRUTHFUL, MAGS.

whitakp

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 725

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 3:58 PM ET #187

with pitching ERA, are you breaking it down by league? I would think there would be a difference with the AL having a DH?

BroadwayBob

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:18 PM ET #188

Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:

3. Eliminate all games going up against top 20 pitchers according to ERA.
Does this count even if the dog has the top 20? As is the case with Pirates today. (Morton 17 - Nolasco 42)

....................

BLACKnYELLOW27

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 5

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:36 PM ET #189

I would say no since having a top 20 pitcher pitching for the dog would be a benefit.

odieo

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 86

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:37 PM ET #190

Bob - the way I read the system it does not count. Pirates would be a go if I am understanding correctly. The pitcher only pertains to the favorite.

kinggeorge27

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 3541

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:41 PM ET #191

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKnYELLOW27:

I would say no since having a top 20 pitcher pitching for the dog would be a benefit.

For sure...I'd say you avoid the plays AGAINST a top 20 pitcher.

jbridge801

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 16

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:44 PM ET #192

What a HATER

BroadwayBob

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 5:46 PM ET #193

Thats my thinking as well. Re-read The BUS on Vegas insider: Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). So the rarity of a road dog with a top 20 P applies. I guess?

simonidogs

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 24

Posted: Apr. 20, 2011 - 11:36 PM ET #194

Just started this system today up .11 units. For tomorrow I got

If its top pithcers in baseball

Minn

OAK

WASH

PITT

HOU

If its top pitchers in each league

MINN

HOU

PITT

Still not sure on which one it is, Anybody know?

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:12 AM ET #195

Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:

Scratch Twins - Britton moves up to 19

You are correct, Minnesota scratched.

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:14 AM ET #196

That's the way I understand it. Any top 20 is no bet unless betting on the under.

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:16 AM ET #197

Quote Originally Posted by BLACKnYELLOW27:

Maglio uses the rule "Do not bet against any 3 game or more streak whether it is winning or losing"

Which criteria are you using poizeniv?

If they have a three game winning or losing streak, or more, I eliminate the game.

odieo

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 86

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:25 AM ET #198

Quote Originally Posted by simonidogs:

Just started this system today up .11 units. For tomorrow I got

If its top pithcers in baseball

Minn

OAK

WASH

PITT

HOU

If its top pitchers in each league

MINN

HOU

PITT

Still not sure on which one it is, Anybody know?

Top 20 in each league.

POIZENIV

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 119

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:26 AM ET #199

Quote Originally Posted by odieo:

long time lurker....been following this thread - POIZEN, why did you not list WASH and SD (gm. 1) as plays? Am I missing something here? According to my understanding they both qualify. Just wondering because I also see some games tonight that I think qualify.

Washington had a three game winning streak going into game one, which eliminates the game.

odieo

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 86

Posted: Apr. 21, 2011 - 1:27 AM ET #200

Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

That's the way I understand it. Any top 20 is no bet unless betting on the under.

I think you are wrong here - I believe it is only when top 20 pitcher is pitching for the favorite.

Then again probably not going to have too many dogs with a top 20 pitcher.

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