here is the original post
1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.
Cinn has lost 4 (win or lose it says)
But is it 3 exactly or, 3 or more
This system is based on the one featured in VegasInsider.com. Here is the link https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/.
I believe Maglio misinterpeted what the article said when he listed the three qualifications. When I started posting the results for this system beginning on 4/18, I was following his qualifications, which led to the error. If you are going to try this system, here are the three qualifications you should follow:
1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.
3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin on USA Today's Web site.
4) When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the "under" total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these "pitchers duels" often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.
Plays for Thursday following the above system:
Arizona +119
Pittsburgh +131
Houston +126
Oakland +136
Just to clarify, the odds I'm using are the current odds at covers for that game when the pick is posted. I know some might get better or worse odds at your book, but as stated before, just tracking this for a couple of weeks to see how it does.
Ok, here are the correction for Monday and I will state why game should have been added or deleted:
Minnesota +102 
+20.40
Seattle +109 
-20
Pit/Cin under 8.5 -22
San Deigo +134 -20
Minnesota should have been a play because the team with the losing streak of 3 or more was the FAV.
Corrected record and bankroll after Monday: 1-3 / $1558.40
McCarthy is a solid pitcher and Seattle is just horrible scoring runs. Oakland avg against righties .252, Seattle .194. I'd make this a play.
Ok, here are the corrections for Tuesday and I will state why game should have been added or deleted:
Houston +120 +22.80
Arizona +144 +27.36
Atlanta +107 +20.33
Minnesota +106 -19.00
Minnesota should have been a play because the team with the losing streak of 3 or more was the FAV.
Corrected record and bankroll after Tuesday: 4-4 / $1609.89
Ok, here are the corrections for Wednesday and I will state why game should have been added or deleted:
Mil/Phily under 7.5 +20.00
Washington game 1 +136 +27.20
San Fran/Col under 8.5 -22.00
Pittsburgh +137 -20.00
Houston +136 +27.20
Arizona +134 +26.80
Detroit +104 +20.80
LAA/Texas under 8 +20.00
Washing added because the UD had the winning streak which is OK. Pittsburgh added because UD had the top 20 pitcher which is OK. Arizona added because the UD had the winning streak which is OK. Minnesota scratched because FAV pitcher was top 20. Detroit added because they became a dog (they opened at -103).
Corrected record and bankroll after Wednesday: 10-6 / $1709.89
Wagers amount on Thursday: $21
The article also says to do extra homework for games on the edge such as this (with Oswalt being the #23 pitcher.) Oswalt has a career 11-2 record against the Padres while Latos is 0-2 against the Philies. The main reason I didn't post it as a play is Latos has only two starts this year. I want to see pitchers with at least 3 starts to form an opinion. Having said that, it isn't necessarily an incorrect play. Also, a team that is +100 isn't a dog, they're even money.
The article also says to do extra homework for games on the edge such as this (with Oswalt being the #23 pitcher.) Oswalt has a career 11-2 record against the Padres while Latos is 0-2 against the Philies. The main reason I didn't post it as a play is Latos has only two starts this year. I want to see pitchers with at least 3 starts to form an opinion. Having said that, it isn't necessarily an incorrect play. Also, a team that is +100 isn't a dog, they're even money.
This system is based on the one featured in VegasInsider.com. Here is the link https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/.
I believe Maglio misinterpeted what the article said when he listed the three qualifications. When I started posting the results for this system beginning on 4/18, I was following his qualifications, which led to the error. If you are going to try this system, here are the three qualifications you should follow:
1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.
3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team's pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin on USA Today's Web site.
4) When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the "under" total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these "pitchers duels" often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.
Can you explain #4? Usually when the top 20 pitchers are facing each other, the o/u is around 7, sometimes 6.5. Who wants to go under then?
Can you explain #4? Usually when the top 20 pitchers are facing each other, the o/u is around 7, sometimes 6.5. Who wants to go under then?
Usually the total is between 7 and 8.5. Every now and the you see a 6.5 and I would do some real studing of those games. One of the reasons I want to follow this for a couple of weeks is to see how the "totals" record comes out. Since Monday its 2-2, so you would be loser to the vig.
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