Trends are now 26-14-1, 65.0 percent ATS over the last four weeks. As
those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority
of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we
have total angles. Now, two of the angles we had last week have no
qualifying plays in Week 14, so we kick thing off with two angles that
we have been successful with in the past but have had several weeks off,
one of which is 17-4 ATS this season!
All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a
large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may
pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games
less than ideal.
Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams
and/or Bad Teams, such as in our leading angle. We are not using those
terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are
strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16
games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of
their last 16 games.
It
used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades,
but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust
the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game.
Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the
lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also
adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This
angle is an amazing 17-4 ATS so far in 2012! Qualifiers: Arizona
+10.5 to 11, New Orleans +5 to 6, and Philly +7.5 to 8.
The
very definition of being contrarian is betting on teams that the
general public wants no part of, and this angle combines three things
that the public likes to avoid, as these are teams that are generally
bad to begin with, they are on losing streaks and they are on the road.
And yet, check out this winning % over a very nice-sized
sampling. Qualifiers: Detroit +7, 7.5 to 8 and Tennessee +5 to 6 (buy to 7 if +6).
Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (170-108-5, 61.2% ATS): The
logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two
exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second
straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is
restricted to conference games only as now facing a familiar foe lessens
the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe
and what to expect on defense. This angle swept 2-0 in Week 13.
Qualifiers: Arizona +10.5 to 11, New Orleans +5 to 6, Philadelphia +7.5 to 8 and Houston
+3.5 to 4 (Monday).
Angle #4 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (61-42-3, 59.2% ATS): Very
few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does!
Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers
know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are
becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at
times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a
nice-sized sampling. This angle pushed its only play in Week 13.
Qualifier: Houston +3.5 to 4 at New England (Monday).
Angle #5 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (101-65-2, 60.8% ATS): Playing
this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of
the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as
these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any
part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning % over a
nice sampling. This angle split 1-1 in Week 13. Qualifier: Kansas City
+7.5 to 8.
McTrendz plays NO, Phi, Det and Ariz.
Double angles for this week Ariz, NO, Philly and Hou. (Probably a parlay there and extra unit on singles especially if you consider Ariz, NO and Philly are McTrendz plays as well!!!)
Believe it or not, Dallas Cryboys +4 to 5 becomes a GM4 of 4 chase play in a system I sometimes play but don't post as they are 4 game chases. (I will hold my nose and go with it as I HATE the Cowboys, but small play and hope Cincy wins by 3). It is supposed to be a strong play, so 2 units max for me. I RARELY bet on the Cowboys, and FOR THE LOVE OF GOD I hate that they are in a system that rarely loses 4 game chase!
Other plays I like Tenn +6 or buy to 7 if one point buy. Jets -2 GM1 of 2 buy down from 3 to at least -2.5.
KEEEP IT UP AND GOOD LUCK TODAY BOYS!!! THINKING THE JETS TODAY, TEBOW IS PLAYING IN FLORIDA 
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