Evening, couple of notes for tonite. Toronto - Portland as Toronto 5th game on the road in 8 days and going home. Last 3 didn't cover. Portland lost on the 8th at home since returning from a jet lag roadie. I would play Toronto here because second game at home after roadie for Portland but in this case Toronto has no momentum and thinking they just want to get home.
Sac - Dallas Midwest 3 game roadie for Dallas as last nite LAL Hoya mentioned a fade. Thoughts welcomed
It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This angle is an amazing 17-4 ATS so far in 2012! Qualifiers: Arizona +10.5 to 11, New Orleans +5 to 6, and Philly +7.5 to 8.
The very definition of being contrarian is betting on teams that the general public wants no part of, and this angle combines three things that the public likes to avoid, as these are teams that are generally bad to begin with, they are on losing streaks and they are on the road. And yet, check out this winning % over a very nice-sized sampling. Qualifiers: Detroit +7, 7.5 to 8 and Tennessee +5 to 6 (buy to 7 if +6).
Result 2-0
Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (170-108-5, 61.2% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference games only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle swept 2-0 in Week 13. Qualifiers: Arizona +10.5 to 11, New Orleans +5 to 6, Philadelphia +7.5 to 8 and Houston +3.5 to 4 (Monday).
Result 1-3
Angle #4 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (61-42-3, 59.2% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle pushed its only play in Week 13. Qualifier: Houston +3.5 to 4 at New England (Monday).
Result 0-1
Angle #5 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (101-65-2, 60.8% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning % over a nice sampling. This angle split 1-1 in Week 13. Qualifier: Kansas City +7.5 to 8.
Result 0-1
McTrendz plays NO, Phi, Det and Ariz. (result 2-2)
Double angles for this week Ariz, NO, Philly and Hou. (Probably a parlay there and extra unit on singles especially if you consider Ariz, NO and Philly are McTrendz plays as well!!!)
Result 1-3
Believe it or not, Dallas Cryboys +4 to 5 becomes a GM4 of 4 chase play in a system I sometimes play but don't post as they are 4 game chases. (I will hold my nose and go with it as I HATE the Cowboys, but small play and hope Cincy wins by 3). It is supposed to be a strong play, so 2 units max for me. I RARELY bet on the Cowboys, and FOR THE LOVE OF GOD I hate that they are in a system that rarely loses 4 game chase!
I CAN'T BELIEVE I WON ON THE CRYBOYS!
Other plays I like Tenn +6 or buy to 7 if one point buy. Jets -2 GM1 of 2 buy down from 3 to at least -2.5.
Result 2-0
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