Sunday, July 5 through Sunday, July 12

so no plays so far? 

@LVTruck

 Brickboy (from Boston) like it  I agree with your write up, Angels 8-16 vs Lefties and Suarez is a crafty LH that I don’t believe LA has seen. 
Appreciate the work you do!

@Prplayer2169

No play yet.

I did some breakdowns on why I liked the A’s first five, then I talked myself off of it. Now I’m sitting here trying to figure out the cleanest way to fuck up the book on this Boston game, keep up

@LVTruck

 I've been looking at 1st 5 inning -1 alt lines lately. 

Better pricing than ML obviously, and there's a chance to push, as opposed to eating it with -.5 or -1.5

@Brickboy

 Soler 4-15 with 2 bombs career vs. Suarez. But Boston does look good though. 

Ryan Johnson’s Statcast profile is attackable

His season surface is ugly 7.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 24.1 MLB innings

The contact profile is the bigger issue for him

89.2 mph average exit velocity
39.8% hard-hit rate
7.2% barrel rate
.364 actual wOBA allowed
.321 xwOBA allowed
.416 xSLG allowed

His K rate is 16.2% with an 8.1% walk rate. So he is not missing enough bats to fully erase traffic

the early-inning splits are interesting. Johnson has been hit in the first inning, with 8 earned runs in 4 first innings, and he also has a 9.00 ERA in the third inning. Small sample, yes, but for a Boston F5 -0.5 look, that supports the idea that he can be vulnerable early 

I think boston dominates and completes the sweep today. Ranger has been so good

Ranger Suarez 

The Statcast contact suppression is excellent

.272 wOBA allowed
.283 xwOBA allowed
86.4 mph average exit velocity
31.5% hard-hit rate
5.4% barrel rate

That is a very clean profile. He is not surviving on smoke and mirrors. He is limiting hard contact, limiting barrels, and keeping the expected damage low. 

-1.5  plus money........

Angels pitcher not very talented.....

Over his last five starts, Suarez is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA, 35 strikeouts, 30 innings, 25 hits, 7 earned runs, and only 1 home run allowed. That is strong enough for what we need tonight 

Interesting scheduling quirk for Boston.

They were off on Thursday before traveling to LA to play on Friday. And they'll be off tomorrow while traveling to Chicago to start that series on Tuesday. 

Easy come, easy go

Miami up early

@LVTruck

 I think you got the right idea bro. Looks pure to me. 

Boston 7-3 in their last 10, and Saturday’s 8-1 win over the Angels was solid . They had early damage, walks, traffic, and then a four run fifth to break it open

The recent road offense has also shown some life. They just beat the Angels 5-2 and 8-1 in Anaheim, and before that they put up 6 runs at Seattle and 5 at Tampa in recent road spots.

Angles over their last 10 games, are 4-6 and hitting only .218 / .276 / .317 / .592 OPS as a team. That is weak

Angels  Last 5 games: 2, 3, 0, 2, 1 runs
That is 8 total runs in 5 games

So we got so far 

Boston offense waking up / scoring enough
Angels offense cold and getting worse
Suarez limits hard contact
Johnson hittable profile
F5 -0.5 lines up with the early game edge

I’m all aboard the boston train once you give us the call LV! 

BOS Lineup
LAA Lineup
TBD
TBD

Hopefully within the hour

Zach Neto (R) SS
Denzer Guzman (R) 3B
Vaughn Grissom (R) 1B
Jorge Soler (R) DH
Oswald Peraza (R) 2B
Jo Adell (R) RF
Jose Siri (R) CF
Logan O'Hoppe (R) C
Josh Lowe (L) LF

Nothing too surprising with the Angels lineup. They stacked it with right-handed bats, which makes sense against Suarez, but they still have not hit left-handed pitching all that well.

Now it just comes down to Boston rolling out the lineup we need.

You guys are the best at theory, lots of analysis to pick a loser from inin 1, good work for the books