SteveA's MLB May 28

Yesterday:  2-2*, +0.15 units
Season:  92-120, -20.09

*My bet on the Angels last night was refunded because Ohtani did not start.

   Marlins +149 vs Red Sox (BetDSI) -- OK, I've seen 3 great starts from Poteet, that's enough to bet on him at a speculative price like this.   Marlins hit lefties fairly well.

   Royals +148 vs Twins (BetDSI) -- Last place Twins should not be this big a favorite.  There's value with KC, as Bubic has two solid starts in a row and before that he had two solid 5+ inning relief appearances in a row that might as well be considered starts.   Yes, the Twins have won 6 of 7, but the last 3 were vs a tailspinning Oriole team.   Royals are still ahead in the standings, and in a battle of two guys who have yet to establish themselves as MLB starters, the Royals' guy has better numbers so far.   

   Angels +132 vs A's (BetDSI) -- Trying again on Ohtani

   Dodgers -1.5 runs +107 vs Giants (BetDSI) -- I think the Giants are turning back into pumpkins.   The oldest team in major league baseball ahs been doing it with mirrors so far, and I don't think it will continue.   On the road, vs one of the two truly talented teams in their division with a Buehler on the mound, I don't see them having much of a chance.

   Mariners -122 vs Rangers (BetDSI) -- Don't quite get why this is so low.   The team with the better record is at home, with the better starting pitcher on the mound.   And the Rangers are 9-17 on the road.   Should be -140 or more, I was happy to get Seattle this cheap.

The plan for tonight is a Seattle win and have two of my four plus money bets pay off, for a gain of between 1.39 and 1.97 units.   And if a third + money bet hits, yippee!

Always like your style and one day your birds will be back in contention

@umgmu

 Thanks!

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.52 units
Season:  94-123, -20.61

   Cubs -111 vs Reds (BetDSI) -- Davies seems to be turning around a bad start, while Castillo has been awful all season.   Cubs are 17-9 at home.   Pretty cheap price given the circumstances.

   Marlins +136 vs Red Sox (BetDSI) -- Trevor Rogers has pitched too damn well to pass up as this big an underdog.

   Game 2 Orioles +159 vs White Sox (BetDSI) -- as bad as things are going for the O's, I can't not take John Means at this price.

   Mets +135 vs Braves (BetDSI) -- first place Mets with an excellent pitcher on the mound as a significant home underdog.   Yeah, I know they have half the team on the IL, but somehow they are continuing to compete.

   Mariners -110 vs Rangers (BetDSI) -- Rangers are terrible on the road.

Yesterday:  3-2 +1.35 units
Season:  102-124, -19.26 units

   Tigers +1.5 runs +100 vs Yankees (BetDSI) -- Yankee offense is just really poor right now.  They have scored 3 or less in 11 of 17 games (and that includes 6 games with 2 or less).   Tough to cover a runline when you aren't scoring runs.   Especially when you are having a bullpen day on the mound.  Yankees have only won by 2+ 8 times in their last 22 games.   Meanwhile, the Tigers have quietly gone 13-9 over their last 22 games after their 8-22 start.  And 5 of those losses were by 1 run so getting 1.5 runs they have covered 18 out of 22 games!

   Doubleheader Game 1:  Indians -105 vs Blue Jays (BetDSI) -- Sometimes you don't have to work too hard in handicapping.   When you have the team with the better record, at home, with the better starting pitcher on the mound, and they are this small a favorite -- it's either a "trap" or a game you should play.   In general, I don't worry about "traps".   So this is the play.

Adding:

    Brewers +102 vs Nationals (BetDSI) -- Held out for this one to get to + money.   Brewers are playing at least as well as the Nats, probably better, and right now Woodruff is a better starting pitcher than Scherzer.

Adding:

   Cardinals +105 vs Dioamondbacks (BetDSI) -- yeah, Arenado is out of the lineup.   But when you have the better team, and the better pitcher on the mound, and you are facing a team that is playing absolutely horribly, having lost 13 in a row and 22 out of 25... how in the world are the Cardinals underdogs???

Tommy Edman, Molina also out

Yesterday:  2-2, -0.03 units
Season:   104-126, -19.29 units

   Rays +114 vs Yankees (BetDSI) -- Rays have won 15 out of 16 games, while Yankees have lost 5 of 6.   Rays are averaging a full run per game more than the Yankees on offense.   Rays have Rich Hill on the mound, who has a 1.26 ERA in his last 6 starts.   Yankees have a mediocre Taillon on the mound.  Better team, better offtense, better starting pitcher, by far the hotter team... the only handicapping factors that point to the Yankees are a better bullpen (though Tampa's is not bad), and being at home.   But the Rays are 19-7 on the road so that somewhat negats the home field edge.   The wrong team is favored here.

Adding:

    Giants -143 vs Angels (BetDSI) -- I don't usually pay a price this steep to make a bet.   Baseball is a very unpredictable sport, you'll never see a sports announcer talk about a regular season game being an "upset" because those things happen all the time.   So I play a lot of underdogs and hope to hit half of them, and smaller favorites.   When I like a favorite over -140 I'll typically play the runline rather than lay the steep price.   But in this pariticular case, I went with the Giants money line.   I really like them to win.   THey are the better team, at home, with an excellent home record so far htis year.   THey are playing well, having just gone toe to toe with the Dodgers and come out standing.   They have the better starting pitcher on the mound, and Bundy has really been knocked around in his most recent starts.   And the Angel lineup, already missing Trout, won't have Ohtani either (except as a pinch hitter) under the NL rules in San Fransisco.

Adding:

    Braves -1.5 runs +104 vs Nationals (BetDSI) -- better team, at home, better starting pitcher, better offense.

And:

   Cardinals +164 vs Dodgers (BetDSI) -- It's impossible to pass up Flaherty and the Cardinals at this big a number.   I know Trevor Bauer is great, but the fact is the Dodgers are just 5-6 in his starts.   St Louis is 9-1 in Flaherty's starts, and the Cardinals lineup is at full strength after it was missing a few key people yesterday.

Yesterday: 3-1, +2.18 units 

Season: 107-127, -17.11 units 

   Marlins +144 vs Blue Jays (BetDSI) 

   Rockies -102 vs Rangers (BetDSI) 

   Mets -114 vs Diamondbacks (BetDSI)

Yesterday: 1-2, -1.14 units 

Season: 108-129 units, -18.25 units 

   Rays +126 vs Yankees (BetDSI) 

   Nationals +137 vs Braves (BetDSI) 

   Rockies +101 vs Rangers (BetDSI) 

   Cardinals +1.5 runs +100 vs Dodgers (BetDSI)

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.38 units
Season:  110-121, -17.87 units

   Mariners +144 vs Angels (BetDSI)