Braves ML (-118): It's hard not roll with this team right
now, they are clicking on all cylinders are breathing down the necks of
the Nats for the AL East division lead. They are also the current wild
card leaders in large part to there current 10-2 run they are on. The
Braves will be facing a depleted Phillies squad who they just swept last
month. Could revenge be a factor? Sure, but just because a team is
seeking revenge, doesn't exactly mean they will get it. At the end of
the day they still have to actually play the game and get it done on the
field. This is a tough task for the a team with a very depleted line up
and shaky pitching. The Phillies will be sending Vance Worley to the
mound to attempt to stop rain on the Braves parade. On the year Worley
is 6-6 with a 3.63 era, but he has struggled at home this year going 2-3
with a 4.72 era. He has a whip of 1.50 in home starts, while giving up
23 free passes in just 53 innings of work. He has surrendered 7 home
runs in 9 home starts, including allowing home runs in 4 of his last 5
home starts. An elevated WHIP and vulnerability to the long ball will
pose as a serious problem vs a Braves team who is swinging the bats very
well lately and have a line up full of people capable of hitting home
runs. It wouldn't be a far fetched to think Worley gives up 2 home runs
in this game. The Braves are ranked #8 in the league vs right handed
pitching on the year and are only getting better. The Braves as team
have had success against Worley (in a small sample size). Bourn,
Heyward, Freeman, Jones, McCann and Uggla are batting a combined .350
(14-40) with the hits pretty evenly distributed amongst them. On the
hill in this game for the Braves will be Ben Sheets, who will look to
continue upon what has been a successful return to the big leagues.
Sheets enters this contest with a 3-1 record and a 1.46 era. This guy
has poured his heart and soul into all 4 of his outings so far. I have
watched all 4 of his starts and have seen how focused and determined he
has been. He truly looks like he is doing all he can to be a big part in
this playoff run for the Braves. He is definitely making the most of
this opportunity based on his numbers so far this season. In his 4
starts, he has yet to allow a home run, his command has been good only
allowing 6 walks (1.5 a game), while striking out 23 (5.7 a game). His
WHIP did rise to a 1.22 after allowing a 11 hits in his last outing vs
Miami. I fully expect this season veteran to have a strong bounce back
performance in this affair. He will face a Phillies team who ranks in
the middle of the pack against right handed pitching (#16). Sheets is
also 1 month removed from a strong outing vs the Phillies, who have only
gotten worst line up wise since then. In the July 8th outing against
the Phillies, Sheets went 6 strong innings, allowing just 1 run, on 6
hits, and 1 walk, en route to a 6-1 Braves victory. In the later stages
of the game the Braves will have a huge advantage. The Braves enter
this contest ranked #1 in the bullpen, meanwhile the Phillies are again
in the middle of the pack ranked #16. The Braves will have the better
line up, the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen heading into
this game. I can't even say the Phillies have the advantage being home
in this game honestly. Sure they might be at home, but they are 7 games
below .500 with a 23-30 home record this year. Meanwhile the Braves are
one of the best in all of baseball with a road record of 30-20. This is
another big game for the Braves with lots of implications riding with
there own division and the wild card race. I like there chances of a
getting a W.
Reds ML (+121):
The hottest team in baseball loses a game and they instantly become an
underdog against a Brewers team who is playing terrible baseball lately.
Granted, I realize the Reds are the dog in this game because of the
pitching advantage on paper for the Brewers. I am set to challenge that
advantage though, because the Reds have had a ton of success against
Gallardo. Let's start with the "least" productive out of the group Drew
Stubs, he is batting .227 (5-22), with 4 of those hits being XBH,
Brandon Phillips is batting .278 (9-33), with 4 of those being XBH, then
we start to really heat up, Ryan Ludwick is batting .353 (6-17) with 3
of those being home runs, Scott Rolen is batting .381 (8-21) with 3 of
those being XBH, then last but not least we have Jay Bruce, who is
batting .462 (12-26) with 4 of those being XBH. The heart of the line up
for the red hot Reds team has crushed Gallardo. Then you add in the
wild card rookies Cozart and Heisy, and it could spell a long day for
Gallardo and the Brewers. Not too surprising Gallardo is 4-5 with a 5.04
era vs the Reds, and plenty of guys not named Joey Votto have been
contributing factors. In a July 21st start this year Gallardo lasted
just 5 innings, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and ended up on the losing end
of a 6-2 score. Gallardo has also struggled big time in his last 3
outings going 1-2 with a 6.11 era. He has also allowed home runs in 5
straight games. That could be a recipe for disaster for a team more then
capable of hitting the long ball, especially with a line up full of
people who have done just that vs Gallardo. Meanwhile, the Reds will be
countering with Bronson Arroyo. Let me be the first one to say, I am not
a big Arroyo fan for obvious reasons. That being said, it took a lot of
digging for me to really wanna make this play. But I was happy to see
that Arroyo has had pretty good success against the Brewers. In 24
career contests Arroyo is 13-8 with a 3.67 era. He also had a good
outing vs the Brewers on July 21st of this season. In that start he went
6 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits, while walking 2 and striking
out 6 in a 6-2 home win. Bronson also enters this game on a probably
his hottest run of the season, he is 3-0 with a 2.89 era in his last 3
outings. Bronson has also enjoyed pitching on the road this season where
he is 5-4 with a 3.39 era, but a low WHIP of 1.10 compared to his 1.40
WHIP at home. The Brewers will have a slight advantage in terms of
rankings against right handed pitching. The Reds enter as #20, and the
Brewers enter as #11. But for all the reasons mentioned above, I think
the hottest team in Baseball will be able to overcome that. As the line
has indicated, this could be a very close game. In the later stages of
the game when the bullpen comes into play, you gotta love the HUGE
advantage the Reds will have. The Reds rank #2 just behind Atlanta,
meanwhile the Brewers rank #18, but lately they have been even worst
then that. I expect the Reds to have the lead in this one, but if they
are losing late in this one, I like the added advantage of going against
the Brewers bullpen. The Reds are the road this year have had success
and their 30-22 mark ranks them as one of the best. During there current
15-2 run, the Reds have won 9 in a row on the road. Travel should play
no factor in this one, with both teams having short flights after there
Sunday contests. Only small benefit from the Reds who had a afternoon
game and the Brew crew playing a late Sunday Night Baseball game and
arriving in the Wisconsin area much later.
!!!!
. I'll settle down soon tho. Looks like you have been destroying the books . Keep it up
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