*SJP's Winner's Circle* (Sunday---July 10th, 2011)

TB: 17-5 L22 game # 3 of series

ATL: 16-4 L20 game # 3 of series

PHILLY: 10-0 L10 after a loss

Hey SJP,

Great day u had yesterday, Congrats, I was on the Rays yesterday myself, I liked the value with price, anyways For today, I like ur W Sox play as well, Love Peavy in this spot, GL today,

Cheers

Boston Red Sox

Justin Verlander is so consistently good.  Not only has he thrown over 100 pitches in all 19 starts this season, he's in fact averaging 116 per start.  That's just unreal.  I tried to fade him back on June 19th when the Tigers played a Sunday afternoon game in Colorado.  Verlander had thrown a ridiculous 370 pitches in his last three starts, and hadn't had more than 4 days rest in between any of them, including the start in Denver.  I took +130 with the Rockies and all Verlander did that day was go the distance, shutting down the Rocks on 4 hits, and doing it all on an economical (for him) 110 pitches. 

Today, Verlander is in a similar spot.  He's still on fire, of course, and this time he enters Sunday's game after having thrown a ridiculous 368 pitches in his last three starts.  He pitched on 5 days rest on June 25th against the Diamondbacks, but just the usual 4 days rest against the Mets and Angels.  Today he will again go on 4 days rest, and - if you want to get picky like me - you could say he's getting shorted five hours because it's a day game.  But then again I had the same thing going for me on that day in Denver three weeks ago, and I got flattened.  Still, I think it's worth a shot a great price to dare Verlander to excel once again in a less than optimal situation (that being the 368 pitches and now going on barely 4 days rest).

Jeff Francis opposes The Amazing Verlander (I just made that up) today, and brings in a won/loss record (3-9) and an ERA (4.69) that'll make this game an easy decision for the dedicated squares of Verlander Nation (I just made that up, too).  Francis, though, has had the majority of his ugly outings away from Kaufmann Stadium.  On the road this season Francis has an awful ERA of 6.29, has given up a crazy 72 hits in just 48.2 innings, and has allowed opponents to bat .341 off of him.  That's pathetic.  At home, though, he's a more confident Jeff Francis, with an ERA of 3.41 and an opponents' batting average of .251.  He's really only been hit hard in 1 of 9 home starts, and that happened two months ago.  A typical home start for Francis this season has been 6.2 innings and 2.5 earned runs allowed.  That's been good enough to keep the Royals in all of his home starts.  They're 4-5 in those 9 games, but that's not his fault, as the team has averaged just 3.0 runs per game for him.