SJP's *MLB Roundtable* (SATURDAY---July 16th, 2011)

Hey Sarah,

why do you like Marlins today?

--Zambrano is 5-0 with a 3.36 ERA in his last nine starts against Florida, with the Cubs winning each time

Cubs baby! 

Just reading the line,it's telling me Cubs! Books ain't gonna give +109 when they know everyone gonna be on Florida.

I'm with You

rays, philly, pirates, and st.louis.good luck babe

Sarah,

Good morning princess! Had a chance to read your article. So you really dont think that watching porn while betting works? Hey, if all I need is one hand to press the button........ On a serious note I think you hit the nail on the head(no pun intended) we all cry when we lose and bark at the moon when we win, some things never change. My point is that Testosterone is not that different from Hormones when it comes to "action".  No Mas Patron por favor!

Pick for today: Cubs (Zambrano) -$135 Sorry babe, like the other side here. Vasquez is the perfect illustration of strikeouts do not = wins. GL

I've been trying to Fade Vasquez his last few outings and the guy has been lights out.  Cubs also have a very difficult time winning 2 games in a row.  I'm on Florida

I HATE to go against you, Sarah, but all signs here point to the Cubs.  I don't know what it is about Zambrano, but the cubs seem to win whenever this guy is on the mound

GL SJP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

put some money on the phils -140 and thank me later

The line moved down 25 cents overnight on the Marlins. Those aren't squares moving the line, but sharps have been getting killed for the last week or so.

Is today the revenge of the sharps? We'll see early on.

I'm not entirely sold on the early games yet, but keep in mind that the Cubs only 2 runs were scored yesterday on the error on a pop fly.

Vasquez has been pitching very well lately and the Cubs seem to be in turmoil right now whereas the Marlins are playing to win each game under Jack McKeon.

The Cubs bullpen is also in shambles if Zambrano has any issues.

. . . but I really don't like that the Marlins have gone from +130 to now -101 without anything really changing on the Cubs.

Based on principle, I can't bet on Florida.

It's now Cubs -106/Marlins -104 at my book.

Just take the Marlins and don't worry about line moves by public or sharps.

Building The Card:

• Chicago Cubs ML (-105)
• New York Yankees ML (-143)

Square pick on the Yankees since every sub-160 square pick has been hitting for the last week and Cubs blind bet against the extreme line movement.

Romero is good, too.

FML.



SJP

I like the under here. 8.5 is a fat # with the roll these 2 pitchers are on. Yeah Z is coming off the DL but prior he was rolling & Vazquez last few he has been filthy with an OBP of barely 2 in that span. I disagree with fading a good pitcher coming off the DL, look at Colon's return from the DL was like 6 shutout. I can name others its something I keep an eye on. Zam is also a full run better at home and in day games. Marlins bully is rested and I dont think the Cubs bully is as bad as they come off. They have a few guys scuffling but Mateo, Grabow, Samardzja are rested and have been pretty good couple weeks and Marshall is available again. Basically if they keep Wood & Marmol off the field they are ok. I see both SP going 7 strong and hopefully the pens dont get lit up in a short span. Vazquez also has some favorible historical matchups with some Cubs hitters, especially Pena. See a nice 4-2, 4-3 Fish win were.

hamels =

look into it !

good luck today.

i love the yanks.

My mom just placed her bet on the Yankees, too.

BOL Sara, Hope you dont regret going against your initial lean.

I tweeted a follow request -- ok  me if you dont mind.

Done.

Based on my line feeds +130 was NEVER available. I wouldn't gauge line moves based on your local, or the covers match up page.

There are only 4-5 books actually making lines, the rest just follow (including myself). Accurate lines comes from the Pinnacles, BetCris, 5Dimes, and The Hilton in Vegas. Sometimes The M will get a wild hair up their ass. These are on a daily basis, you sometimes will get exceptions like the Golden Nugget who likes to break College Football first, but day in and day out your line setters are the 4 or 5 I mentioned first. Those books never opened the Marlins more than +115.

Sharps have been backing Vasquez for a few starts now, and today is no different. Two teams going in opposite directions with totally different mind sets. A starter coming of the DL, and a bullpen with some leaks in it after the last 2 days are the angles being played. Based on my book in Florida, I get Marlins action all day long, so I had to turn down the sharps who wanted them as well.

GL today

Opposite both, hopefully your initial lean was correct

I suck right now.