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SJP's Interleague Roundtable (June 25th, 2011)

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Posted: #26
change that pick sjp ! heat
 
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Posted: #27
Hi Sarah,
Im on ATL with you
 
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Posted: #28
Yanks TT over. You just can't ignore the stats for yanks in day games. And my opinion is that cook is a bum, but I guess I give $ to bums daily.! Change..change.. got any change! Shoutout to the skunky deathstar.,!!
 
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Posted: #29
i will be on ATL and NYY tomorrow as well.
Lets get this!

I can see DET getting the W but ARI has been my money train as of late. 
 
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Posted: #30
Seeing a lot of love for the tigers today! Or should I say Verlander. Understandably so, he's been lights out all season. If I was picking this game solely on pitching. Tigers all the way. However, I don't feel confident in this spot. While Verlander has set a high mark for consistency. The only thing consistent about the tigers as a whole is inconsistency. They go from the best team in their division to mediocre and back. They should win this game, but can't overlook that the Dbacks are hot right now and may not be the best time to fade them regardless of pitching match ups. Speaking of pitching, Collmenter has put some decent numbers himself, 1.69 ERA and .938 WHIP in road starts. He got roughed up a bit in his last two outings but should bounce back considerably as long as tigers don't go crazy with the long ball. Collmenter is also a hometown kid. Grew up in Homer, MI of all places. Went to school at Central Michigan. I imagine he will have his whole family and friends down for the game and will want to pitch well. Likely a no play for me but depending on how high this line gets later in the afternoon Dbacks runline should have value. Strong lean to the under as well....    
 
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Posted: #31
sarah wanna make out?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

Oh, brother. Another day of Interleague betting.

I felt like I was a day early on a couple of plays going 2-3, so I'm going to send the losers back out again. They owe me money:
  • Houston Astros ML
  • Detroit Tigers -1
  • Atlanta Braves ML
  • New York Yankees -1

Let the games begin! If you've got a great play, please share it with your analysis.

I'll add the odds to my plays in the morning.

SJP

run lines are just bad bets, avoid them, especially with home teams....way too many one run wins. Bettem' straight or parlay yanks/tigers....you'll be kickin yourself in the ass if they win by 1.  I never play mls that big but like both yanks and tigers today

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:

run lines are just bad bets, avoid them, especially with home teams....way too many one run wins. BETTER to bet them straight or parlay yanks/tigers....you'll be kickin yourself in the ass if they win by 1.  I never play mls that big but like both yanks and tigers today

 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by troyes:

So when do we get an announcement that SarahJPhilli joins Covers Experts group and her picks are for sale?

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:


Runlines are not always bad bets. Runlines that do not produce + money are potential bad bets. Doesn't make sense to lay -115/120 range on the rl of a heavy favorite in my opinion. Some cases they are the best bets on board if used correctly. Shouldn't make a habit of laying over -150+ juice anyways. But if you are wagering to win 1 unit a play on big faves. Throw .25 unit on rl to compensate for the extra juice. Better alternative than parlaying two heavy priced favorites. IF you lose the runline you still profit. 
 
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Posted: #36

Norris on fire, think ya got a winner there.

   

 
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Posted: #37
Sarah, to increase your tout base, you should start flirting with posters. One sniff of interest and they'll keep coming back for more. Just something to think about while you build your following. 

On a relevant topic, I like the RED SOX and TWINS today. 

GL, 
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:



I guess Earth operates in the same timezone worldwide.

When you actually meet a 20 year old female, you will see that we are not all the same, D-Bag. I'm currently working on midterm preparation for summer courses, doubling on Facebook, and checking Covers. Your wife, assuming someone was actually willing to breed with you, may have been having sex with random guys on a Friday nights in her 20's, but that's not me. Sorry.

Thanks for your opinion though. :)

       Atta Girl, you tell him 

I like White Sox RL +135   2 word analysis  Tom Gorzelanny  

 
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Posted: #39

Sarah

Almost got the over on Sea/Fla was hopin for a miracle. Overall 5-1-1 P on Clev/SF. Not a bad day!

Today:

Absolutely love the Atl/SD game OV 6.5 Jurrjiens good SP but Moseley not sold on and last night proves the trend 27-6-3 OV @SD

Oak/Phil UND 7.5 last 7 0-7 O/U dont see it changin today.

Milw Gallardo - $139 Great at home against suspect Liriano

Have a great Sat. and make lots of $

 
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Posted: #40
Just a FYI, I might buy out of the Yankees pick.
 
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Posted: #41

Pending on the unit play, I would leave it. Don't let others influence your picks. IF Sabathia actually shows up, I can't see them not winning by 2+ runs. Gluck

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

Oh, brother. Another day of Interleague betting.

I felt like I was a day early on a couple of plays going 2-3, so I'm going to send the losers back out again. They owe me money:
  • Houston Astros ML
  • Detroit Tigers -1
  • Atlanta Braves ML
  • New York Yankees -1

Let the games begin! If you've got a great play, please share it with your analysis.

I'll add the odds to my plays in the morning.

SJP

Any analysis to go with these?

 
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Posted: #43
I like Rangers/Mets Under 9 at even money...haven't seen anyone else on this play but a ton on the Over...I know Ogandi has struggled as of late but I think he holds the Mets in check today at home...Niese is the key here...he has good stuff but is facing a team that hits at almost 300 against lefties....my wild card is the weather...wind blowing in from right field at 10-20 mph...let's hope the ball stays in the park and we should be ok..

BOL to everyone today!
 
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Posted: #44
Braves vs Padres under 3.5 1h - 135.  Twilight start in San Diego at 5:35.  Jurrjens and Mosely with sub 3.05 ERA's, both are really 6 inning pitchers and Danley is 60% under.  Then again, I had the under last night and well, that didn't turn out great.

A's vs Phillies, u7, A's TT under 3.  A's are just woeful offensively (see Matsui playing left).  Hamels is rolling along with a 2.54 ERA, Cahill pitched much better last outing, Phil's offense, excluding huge outburst vs Cards in the 8th the other night has been fairly pedestrian and I like a slight wind coming in from left.

CWS -.5 1H - 110.  Danks has been very good the last 3 outings.  Gorzelanny, not so much.  Like the RH bats (Konerko, Rios, Quentin, Ramirez) vs soft tossing lefty.  Rather give up a half than deal with the -150 plus for 1h and the combination of the Sox pen and Nats streak is "sub-optimal".  Danks pitches into the 7th to preserve the bullpen and pitches well.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by tidefan07:

I like Rangers/Mets Under 9 at even money...haven't seen anyone else on this play but a ton on the Over...I know Ogandi has struggled as of late but I think he holds the Mets in check today at home...Niese is the key here...he has good stuff but is facing a team that hits at almost 300 against lefties....my wild card is the weather...wind blowing in from right field at 10-20 mph...let's hope the ball stays in the park and we should be ok..

BOL to everyone today!


I think I'm headed out to catch the game, but be cautious of the boomerang effect off the Cuervo Club behind the plate in Arlington..Does create a bit of a jet stream to right.  BOL

https://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_22_kcamlb_texmlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=kc
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by VintageVinny:

Yanks TT over. You just can't ignore the stats for yanks in day games. And my opinion is that cook is a bum, but I guess I give $ to bums daily.! Change..change.. got any change! Shoutout to the skunky deathstar.,!!


Cook is a bum? im guessing you've never seen him pitch
 
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Posted: #47
OAK/PHIL UNDER 7.5 @ -122

Two high-mileage and understandably jaded offenses that are struggling for production, going against two quality and stingy starting pitchers (Cahill 7-5 3.24 ERA 1.33 WHIP, HAMELS 9-3 2.51 ERA 0.93 WHIP). These two teams have also failed to put up a total of over 7 in their last 7 interleague meetings and have only 6 overs between them, in their last 20 games combined. I also like Angel Hernandez (UMP) for unders.

LAA -1.5 @ +250

This is more of a gut play than anything. I would have priced this game as more of a coin toss. Probably marginally favouring the road team. So, the +130 on the Angels looks real value and given that 33 of the Dodgers 43 losses this season have been by more than one run, I've taken the Angels -1.5.

Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #48

Toronto- As Cards fan, wo/Pujols, they are nothing. (I know. Not earth shattering). Even yesterday, they got 4 runs on only 5 hits. Toronto loves to hit vs. LH, and Garcia showing his youth.

Chisox- Danks hot. Gorz 2nd start off DL. Last start pathetic. I also think Riggs resignation wwill begin to cause some distractions. Would have been on Chisox last night if not for pitching matchup. Glad I stayed away. Add in the roadie for such a young team as Wash.

SF- Cain-nuff said. Masterson will be good eventually, but think he's on the downturn, as well as Clev

 
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Posted: #49
Sorry, I fell asleep. LOL!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by UKCrunch:

OAK/PHIL UNDER 7.5 @ -122

Two high-mileage and understandably jaded offenses that are struggling for production, going against two quality and stingy starting pitchers (Cahill 7-5 3.24 ERA 1.33 WHIP, HAMELS 9-3 2.51 ERA 0.93 WHIP). These two teams have also failed to put up a total of over 7 in their last 7 interleague meetings and have only 6 overs between them, in their last 20 games combined. I also like Angel Hernandez (UMP) for unders.

LAA -1.5 @ +250

This is more of a gut play than anything. I would have priced this game as more of a coin toss. Probably marginally favouring the road team. So, the +130 on the Angels looks real value and given that 33 of the Dodgers 43 losses this season have been by more than one run, I've taken the Angels -1.5.

Best of luck.


Nice to see you in the forums! :)
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