It's been a couple years since I posted, but some friends have asked me to share my system which is fairly effective in baseball. Much of it is anti-consensus and line move based --- the baseball knowledge I use is actually most helpful when I veto a play. Hope it is helpful...
Today's plays
4 units - Rangers-Twins - Over 10
4 units - Padres-Phillies Over 7.5
3 units - Royals-Red Sox Under 9.5
3 Units - Dodgers -115
2 units - Pirates/Braves - Over 7
2 units - Tigers.White Sox - Over 9
2 units - Mets +126
0
Hello all,
It's been a couple years since I posted, but some friends have asked me to share my system which is fairly effective in baseball. Much of it is anti-consensus and line move based --- the baseball knowledge I use is actually most helpful when I veto a play. Hope it is helpful...
An interesting couple of days in MLB over the weekend to say the least. For the last couple of weeks, the majority of favorites (small and large) were winning. I saw many winning streak threads with a lot of favorites as plays. We discussed when this would change---pitchers tiring, summer heat, hitters tiring, lack of focus, etc.
It seems like this past weekend there was a shift. Aside from Sunday afternoon when many large favorites covered MLs and RLs, many "public" favorites took a dive with the best three examples being the Yankees dropping a day game to the Athletics on Saturday, the Rays dropping a short favorite (but heavy actioned) play to the Royals on Saturday night, and concluding with the -200 Texas Rangers falling to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night.
This is especially relevant with today's card on the horizon. There are A LOT of big favorites on the card. It would be simple to believe that parlaying one or more of these heavy favorites and reducing the odds would be the best plays. Could they be? Sure. Is that a wise strategy? No. Tread with caution. Many of these favorites could and will win, but parlaying the wrong combination or taking an unnecessary runline could be disastrous. If you need an example, think of the Phillies-Rangers parlay from Sunday that was burned by the Blue Jays.
The day game, in my opinion, will set the tone. I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the San Diego Padres. From there on out, it's going to get a little sticky. Don't use the Phillies winning as a sign for the rest of the day. Be cautious.
I'm making my wager on the Phillies based on a profitable weekend. It's a strong play but very heavily vigged. I don't recommend doing this more than once or twice a season, if that. IMO, the short memory of bettors remembering they lost on the Rangers at -200 or more on Sunday night will scare them away from the Phillies in the morning. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could Harang out duel Lee? Sure. However, I'm going to go with the Phillies newly ignited offense and Lee's home ERA as a nice combination to lay -200 or more.
Baseball - 952 Philadelphia Phillies -230 for Game
Best of luck to everyone today.
SJP
0
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
67-46 (+19.32 Units)
An interesting couple of days in MLB over the weekend to say the least. For the last couple of weeks, the majority of favorites (small and large) were winning. I saw many winning streak threads with a lot of favorites as plays. We discussed when this would change---pitchers tiring, summer heat, hitters tiring, lack of focus, etc.
It seems like this past weekend there was a shift. Aside from Sunday afternoon when many large favorites covered MLs and RLs, many "public" favorites took a dive with the best three examples being the Yankees dropping a day game to the Athletics on Saturday, the Rays dropping a short favorite (but heavy actioned) play to the Royals on Saturday night, and concluding with the -200 Texas Rangers falling to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night.
This is especially relevant with today's card on the horizon. There are A LOT of big favorites on the card. It would be simple to believe that parlaying one or more of these heavy favorites and reducing the odds would be the best plays. Could they be? Sure. Is that a wise strategy? No. Tread with caution. Many of these favorites could and will win, but parlaying the wrong combination or taking an unnecessary runline could be disastrous. If you need an example, think of the Phillies-Rangers parlay from Sunday that was burned by the Blue Jays.
The day game, in my opinion, will set the tone. I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the San Diego Padres. From there on out, it's going to get a little sticky. Don't use the Phillies winning as a sign for the rest of the day. Be cautious.
I'm making my wager on the Phillies based on a profitable weekend. It's a strong play but very heavily vigged. I don't recommend doing this more than once or twice a season, if that. IMO, the short memory of bettors remembering they lost on the Rangers at -200 or more on Sunday night will scare them away from the Phillies in the morning. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could Harang out duel Lee? Sure. However, I'm going to go with the Phillies newly ignited offense and Lee's home ERA as a nice combination to lay -200 or more.
just a bump in a road sara u be all rite i tell u what phily almost came back i consider my self lucky to win that one and i see that u taking rest of the day of which is smart you are not chasing i wish i could be like that thats why girls are better gamblers cause u guys have more patientcee my dumb ass would probably chase until i lost all my bank roll goood luck next game
0
just a bump in a road sara u be all rite i tell u what phily almost came back i consider my self lucky to win that one and i see that u taking rest of the day of which is smart you are not chasing i wish i could be like that thats why girls are better gamblers cause u guys have more patientcee my dumb ass would probably chase until i lost all my bank roll goood luck next game
Why would I need another hobby when I'm up plenty this season? You need to consider a new hobby if you think one bet makes or breaks your season. I hope no one chased the Phillies with their entire bankroll.
Anyway, to the D-Bag that consistently comes into my threads and wants to feel big by saying I don't bet nickels and dimes on games . . .
Well, this should clear things up. I apologize that I really have been successful with betting and other endeavors in life. Oh and, don't hate the playa baby, hate the game. ;)
I love you guys! I will catch ya tomorrow.
SJP
0
Why would I need another hobby when I'm up plenty this season? You need to consider a new hobby if you think one bet makes or breaks your season. I hope no one chased the Phillies with their entire bankroll.
Anyway, to the D-Bag that consistently comes into my threads and wants to feel big by saying I don't bet nickels and dimes on games . . .
Well, this should clear things up. I apologize that I really have been successful with betting and other endeavors in life. Oh and, don't hate the playa baby, hate the game. ;)
Before clicking. BEWARE! This may further emasculate you.
Dummy.
Get a new hobby and get off me. I don't like being crowded by weirdos. :)
Bye, bye,
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
0
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
Before clicking. BEWARE! This may further emasculate you.
Dummy.
Get a new hobby and get off me. I don't like being crowded by weirdos. :)
Bye, bye,
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
supposedly getting a highly successful chance of winning Soccer Tip from my friend in vegas later today in the Premier League Scotland. Will post whenever I hear from him, but dont rip my head off if it loses, although he is 78% 31-9 in July on the month!
Can you say 0-0 FINAL!!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by PapaXmas:
supposedly getting a highly successful chance of winning Soccer Tip from my friend in vegas later today in the Premier League Scotland. Will post whenever I hear from him, but dont rip my head off if it loses, although he is 78% 31-9 in July on the month!
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
Money management has helped me out. There was a time a couple years ago when I lost $100 on games and I'd lose my mind, but I was also playing outside of my limits (I should have been wagering $25 per bet). Once I straightened out my limits and built up my bank roll through work and betting, I have been a lot better about losing. Of course I don't like losing, but it happens 40-some-percent of the time so I've gotten more and more used to it over the years.
I'm also in a good mood today with other news so this loss just kind of happened at the right time, I suppose.
Had I been having a bad day, then I probably would be packing down a tub of ice cream right now.
What's a $1000 bet to you in terms of your bankroll? Small, medium, large?
Don't break anything! There's always another day bud.
0
Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
Money management has helped me out. There was a time a couple years ago when I lost $100 on games and I'd lose my mind, but I was also playing outside of my limits (I should have been wagering $25 per bet). Once I straightened out my limits and built up my bank roll through work and betting, I have been a lot better about losing. Of course I don't like losing, but it happens 40-some-percent of the time so I've gotten more and more used to it over the years.
I'm also in a good mood today with other news so this loss just kind of happened at the right time, I suppose.
Had I been having a bad day, then I probably would be packing down a tub of ice cream right now.
What's a $1000 bet to you in terms of your bankroll? Small, medium, large?
Don't break anything! There's always another day bud.
Money management has helped me out. There was a time a couple years ago when I lost $100 on games and I'd lose my mind, but I was also playing outside of my limits (I should have been wagering $25 per bet). Once I straightened out my limits and built up my bank roll through work and betting, I have been a lot better about losing. Of course I don't like losing, but it happens 40-some-percent of the time so I've gotten more and more used to it over the years.
I'm also in a good mood today with other news so this loss just kind of happened at the right time, I suppose.
Had I been having a bad day, then I probably would be packing down a tub of ice cream right now.
What's a $1000 bet to you in terms of your bankroll? Small, medium, large?
Don't break anything! There's always another day bud.
1000 is a medium-large play. It was just frustrating the way it went down. best of luck, i have been checking your plays out lately, they have been doing rather well for the exception of this stinker
0
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
Money management has helped me out. There was a time a couple years ago when I lost $100 on games and I'd lose my mind, but I was also playing outside of my limits (I should have been wagering $25 per bet). Once I straightened out my limits and built up my bank roll through work and betting, I have been a lot better about losing. Of course I don't like losing, but it happens 40-some-percent of the time so I've gotten more and more used to it over the years.
I'm also in a good mood today with other news so this loss just kind of happened at the right time, I suppose.
Had I been having a bad day, then I probably would be packing down a tub of ice cream right now.
What's a $1000 bet to you in terms of your bankroll? Small, medium, large?
Don't break anything! There's always another day bud.
1000 is a medium-large play. It was just frustrating the way it went down. best of luck, i have been checking your plays out lately, they have been doing rather well for the exception of this stinker
1000 is a medium-large play. It was just frustrating the way it went down. best of luck, i have been checking your plays out lately, they have been doing rather well for the exception of this stinker
Thanks, I appreciate it.
This play was anti-everything I believe in MLB betting and it bit me. It happens. I hate the Phillies too, so that makes it sting a little. I'll be happy if the Giants knock them out of the playoffs again. :)
We'll get it back.
Have a good rest of the day and grab some ice cream instead of breaking anything. :)
I'm taking off, good luck to everyone else today, too.
SJP
0
Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
1000 is a medium-large play. It was just frustrating the way it went down. best of luck, i have been checking your plays out lately, they have been doing rather well for the exception of this stinker
Thanks, I appreciate it.
This play was anti-everything I believe in MLB betting and it bit me. It happens. I hate the Phillies too, so that makes it sting a little. I'll be happy if the Giants knock them out of the playoffs again. :)
We'll get it back.
Have a good rest of the day and grab some ice cream instead of breaking anything. :)
I'm taking off, good luck to everyone else today, too.
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
Just quessing here but she may have been betting for more then 6 months.. If you have been betting longer then that and ONE play makes you feel this way then well.. All joking aside you should either quit betting or lower your wager if this is your reaction..Because if not you will not enjoy the gambling "game"..
Be careful with the axe Eugene.
0
Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
I'm not hating on you, but asking a simple question. I lost 1k on this as well and I'm still debating breaking everything in my apartment. How are you cheery and not doing the same? Thanks
Just quessing here but she may have been betting for more then 6 months.. If you have been betting longer then that and ONE play makes you feel this way then well.. All joking aside you should either quit betting or lower your wager if this is your reaction..Because if not you will not enjoy the gambling "game"..
Just quessing here but she may have been betting for more then 6 months.. If you have been betting longer then that and ONE play makes you feel this way then well.. All joking aside you should either quit betting or lower your wager if this is your reaction..Because if not you will not enjoy the gambling "game"..
I'm just guessing here, but are you a DOUCHEBAG? Don't answer, its a rhetorical question you imbecile. All joking aside, didn't Hitler say he wasn't going to invade Poland?
One other rhetorical question, what gambler doesn't get a little upset when they lose a medium-large sized bet? Again, don't answer this question as I know the answer. Thanks for being a fuck-off though
0
Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:
Just quessing here but she may have been betting for more then 6 months.. If you have been betting longer then that and ONE play makes you feel this way then well.. All joking aside you should either quit betting or lower your wager if this is your reaction..Because if not you will not enjoy the gambling "game"..
I'm just guessing here, but are you a DOUCHEBAG? Don't answer, its a rhetorical question you imbecile. All joking aside, didn't Hitler say he wasn't going to invade Poland?
One other rhetorical question, what gambler doesn't get a little upset when they lose a medium-large sized bet? Again, don't answer this question as I know the answer. Thanks for being a fuck-off though
Why would I need another hobby when I'm up plenty this season? You need to consider a new hobby if you think one bet makes or breaks your season. I hope no one chased the Phillies with their entire bankroll.
Anyway, to the D-Bag that consistently comes into my threads and wants to feel big by saying I don't bet nickels and dimes on games . . .
Well, this should clear things up. I apologize that I really have been successful with betting and other endeavors in life. Oh and, don't hate the playa baby, hate the game. ;)
I love you guys! I will catch ya tomorrow.
SJP
sarah , offense , but ur thoughts on the philly play was public memory is short and etc etc,
actually you forget we ourselves are the public ,
0
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
Why would I need another hobby when I'm up plenty this season? You need to consider a new hobby if you think one bet makes or breaks your season. I hope no one chased the Phillies with their entire bankroll.
Anyway, to the D-Bag that consistently comes into my threads and wants to feel big by saying I don't bet nickels and dimes on games . . .
Well, this should clear things up. I apologize that I really have been successful with betting and other endeavors in life. Oh and, don't hate the playa baby, hate the game. ;)
I love you guys! I will catch ya tomorrow.
SJP
sarah , offense , but ur thoughts on the philly play was public memory is short and etc etc,
PHILLIES BACKERS 
PADRES
Hot Forum Topics
