SJP: "On extremely rare occasions, I will lay -200 or more on a game."

67-46 (+19.32 Units)

An interesting couple of days in MLB over the weekend to say the least. For the last couple of weeks, the majority of favorites (small and large) were winning. I saw many winning streak threads with a lot of favorites as plays. We discussed when this would change---pitchers tiring, summer heat, hitters tiring, lack of focus, etc.

It seems like this past weekend there was a shift. Aside from Sunday afternoon when many large favorites covered MLs and RLs, many "public" favorites took a dive with the best three examples being the Yankees dropping a day game to the Athletics on Saturday, the Rays dropping a short favorite (but heavy actioned) play to the Royals on Saturday night, and concluding with the -200 Texas Rangers falling to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night.

This is especially relevant with today's card on the horizon. There are A LOT of big favorites on the card. It would be simple to believe that parlaying one or more of these heavy favorites and reducing the odds would be the best plays. Could they be? Sure. Is that a wise strategy? No. Tread with caution. Many of these favorites could and will win, but parlaying the wrong combination or taking an unnecessary runline could be disastrous. If you need an example, think of the Phillies-Rangers parlay from Sunday that was burned by the Blue Jays.

The day game, in my opinion, will set the tone. I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the San Diego Padres. From there on out, it's going to get a little sticky. Don't use the Phillies winning as a sign for the rest of the day. Be cautious.

I'm making my wager on the Phillies based on a profitable weekend. It's a strong play but very heavily vigged. I don't recommend doing this more than once or twice a season, if that. IMO, the short memory of bettors remembering they lost on the Rangers at -200 or more on Sunday night will scare them away from the Phillies in the morning. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could Harang out duel Lee? Sure. However, I'm going to go with the Phillies newly ignited offense and Lee's home ERA as a nice combination to lay -200 or more.

In shame:

34997610-1

7/24/2011 8:00 PM

Money Line

1,000.00

434.78

Baseball - 952 Philadelphia Phillies -230 for Game

Best of luck to everyone today.



SJP

Phillies should be automatic...won 10 str8 and 17of19 against the Fathers....

Oh, and of those 17 wins, only 4 were by 1 run so RL should be a great play too. 

I just can't Sarah- just can't.  But I wish you the BOL.  You are right...the lines tomr on Phils and others are insane.  None of these teams IMO should be this highly favored.  Looks like I need to research further to get the best bang for my buck or lay off completely on sides.

BOL

seeing it on it, i will give the pods a hard look

If Cam Maybins out then I'm in......I cant do it with the way he's playing right now.....I had Phills RL today and ThePadres scared the **** out of me even with Doc not having a heat stroke......

So if the Rangers had won you wouldnt be making this play?

 

 go get them Sarah

"in shame" lol

GL

I had them -240 and over today

prolly wouldnt have played ML if i wasnt going to the game.

good luck tomorrow.

goood luck sara i have padres tommorow they have to beat philly one of these days and tommorow harang on mound which u could argue that he is better pitcher than lee this year getting +200 i cant pass that up and  seems like philly pitchers dont like the heat and probably gonna be hot and humid tommorow i like padres to avoid the sweep BOL with all other your picks

dont let the 8-2 record fool you, theres noway he is the better pitcher this year.

and dont like the heat ?

halladay went 8 innings yesterday.

Interesting decision.  They have only swept 2 teams at home all season.  They are about to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs.  Harang is 4-2 at the site.  Harang on 4 days rest this season is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.54.  Certainly an interesting spot for this decision.

"Lee has been at his best at Citizens Bank Park, posting a 0.44 ERA in his last five starts there and going 6-0 with a 0.95 ERA in seven home starts since losing to Atlanta on May 6." -ESPN.com

By the way I am on the other side,

Im SOLD

  he was dying other day at chicagoo and lee had some trouble with the cubs as well he got lucky he didnt lose that game causse cubs got to him early and then he got lucky on few line drives that got hit hard right to defence other wise they could have won that game in 1st inning but im not saying that he wont win i just feel like padres are due for a win and harang is vary good pitcher and all the numbers are pretty close if u look at it maybe lee s numbers are little better but they are not that better and his record is not all that impressivee so its not like he cant losee but go ahead bet philly its not like i never been wrong beforee i didnt tell her that it was bad play

FREE MONEY

 

Fixed it for you.

are u stealin kushdoubts plays?

Harang has won 7 of his last 10 VS Philly....And Lee faced SD twice last year,game in SD he lost 7-1,game is SEA he went 6 and gave up 7!